Home01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
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Keep the faith
by Aerojet514 Thu Jan 21, 2016 1:58 pm
Hey guys...been a while since i've been on but i've been here reading all your posts and keeping up. I now work during the storms clearing city streets. I know this probably belongs on banter but hopefully this keeps some off the roof! I totally understand everyone's frustration here...i'm a snow junky too! We're all born that way! But never give up hope till the storms actually gone and the clouds are breaking! I always bring up the '96 storm...the king in my lifetime! I'm in Queens and that baby gave us 30"!! The big difference with that storm was the arctic high to our NW was extreme....it was 7 deg that morning! I live the cold but i never felt that cold in my life when i went out that morning! The dampness went through your bones and that wonderful smell of the snow coming!! That temp assured us that no matter how close that storm got most likely there would be no rain/ snow line issues! And every beautiful flake that fell stuck immediately! Back then all i had was the weather channel...when they actually stuck to weather!! And a little noaa weather radio...yeah ,i'm old! No computer so my only radar outlet was the WC's "local on the 8's"! Everyone went to bed the night before storm hit hearing 3-6" and possibly 6-12" forecast. The jackpot zone was over DC and PHI...24+. I'll never forget stayin up all night to watch the live winter weather updates they had every hour or so. Right around 2am Paul Kocin came on with the latest comp model updates...telling us that with the latest information they now need to shift the jackpot totals NE!! That the bullseye for this storm is now over NYC!! More times then not in my life when we have gotten our monster storms that has been the case....heaviest totals to our south and west....head for the hills its coming! Especially when they say Boston may get shut out with this one....Boston rarely gets shut out!! Mother nature loves the snow lovers up there!!! So keep faith guys...theres always time for it to change! Keep the spirit of '96 alive!!
Last edited by Aerojet514 on Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:29 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by nutleyblizzard Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:00 pm
I'm certainly not. We're seeing something on the global models which we really don't know how to decipher. How can you explain convection just jumping like that. Sure the storm is feeling the effects of the gradient, but why doesn't the convection just slide due east? A big red flag which we all know by now, is the upper levels depiction look great and only improves with each ensuing run. It's just not reflecting that on the surface maps. Then you have the hi-res models consistently showing big hits. So you now have two model camps. One would think that one side will blink by 12z tomorrow. My gut tells me the EURO and GFS will bump up north another 50 miles which would put NYC metro in 12+ inches.sroc4 wrote:Quietace wrote:The RGEM, RPM, and NAM show very similar outcomes. No true jump to convection.
Lower Res Globals due. Have to wait and see
Exactly. There is no sense jumping off the same bridge that many of you have jumped off this time yesterday. Clearly there is a ton of variability occurring here. Just like yesterday, pause for serious concern, but there is still enough time to jog things back 50miles north which will make a huge diff if it occurs. Dont JUMP!!!!!
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by amugs Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:07 pm
SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by amugs Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
_________________
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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by amugs Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by Joe Snow Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
nutleyblizzard wrote:I'm certainly not. We're seeing something on the global models which we really don't know how to decipher. How can you explain convection just jumping like that. Sure the storm is feeling the effects of the gradient, but why doesn't the convection just slide due east? A big red flag which we all know by now, is the upper levels depiction look great and only improves with each ensuing run. It's just not reflecting that on the surface maps. Then you have the hi-res models consistently showing big hits. So you now have two model camps. One would think that one side will blink by 12z tomorrow. My gut tells me the EURO and GFS will bump up north another 50 miles which would put NYC metro in 12+ inches.sroc4 wrote:Quietace wrote:The RGEM, RPM, and NAM show very similar outcomes. No true jump to convection.
Lower Res Globals due. Have to wait and see
Exactly. There is no sense jumping off the same bridge that many of you have jumped off this time yesterday. Clearly there is a ton of variability occurring here. Just like yesterday, pause for serious concern, but there is still enough time to jog things back 50miles north which will make a huge diff if it occurs. Dont JUMP!!!!!
I am going to agree with this, every year there are some problems with the BIG 3 handling the energy and all its parameters. My hunch is that this one plays out
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by jake732 Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:10 pm
mugs,
do we trust the srefs ever??
do we trust the srefs ever??
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by gigs68 Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:10 pm
amugs wrote:
Looks like its giving Long Island the purple finger
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by amugs Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:10 pm
Wetter, Not jumping to the convection - third run in a row now.
BIG MOMMA PLEASE GIVE US THIS SOLUTION!!
BIG MOMMA PLEASE GIVE US THIS SOLUTION!!
_________________
Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by RJB8525 Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:11 pm
gigs68 wrote:amugs wrote:
Looks like its giving Long Island the purple finger
LOL
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by dsvinos Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:13 pm
RJB8525 wrote:gigs68 wrote:amugs wrote:
Looks like its giving Long Island the purple finger
LOL
LOL! Does this model have snow totals?
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by Mathgod55 Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:13 pm
Relax fella's! I've lived on the south shore waters of Long Island for over 50 years and can tell you that with even the best weather models and guidance, Nor'easter's are full of surprises and leave a lot of egg on forecasters faces. Enjoy the ride!
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by amugs Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:14 pm
jake732 wrote:mugs,
do we trust the srefs ever??
Yes they are short range meoscale model that we use for winter storms to gauge LP placement and qpf - hi res model - sniffs out the goods.
I think the convection feedback issue is more than an issue here I believe it is a problem with our globals. I can't see why the LP jumps due east at hr 54-57 when everything points it should take NNE path - fricking amazing.
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by amugs Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:16 pm
Heavy lean to a tucked in solution as all meoscale models are showing
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by jake732 Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:18 pm
So do u believe this at all mugs?
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by nyrfan31 Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:20 pm
Didn't the short range models nail Juno last year while the long range models (specifically the Euro) showed the Tri-state getting hammered? Just some food for thought, a lot of the short range models are solid for the area.
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by jimv45 Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:22 pm
So amugs your saying there's a chance!
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by hyde345 Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:23 pm
It really is amazing the difference in the mesoscale models and the globals with 48 hours to start time in this area. Its not just a small difference but a huge difference in some cases. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. I'm still of the opinion that the HV gets very little.
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by RJB8525 Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:23 pm
jimv45 wrote:So amugs your saying there's a chance!
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by Quietace Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:26 pm
Latest RAP HR 18
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by jimv45 Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:26 pm
hyde don't give up yet!! Again I have never seen the sharop cutoffs like this it could be right but by tonight i think it will be better how much for us will see!!
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by Vinnydula Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:28 pm
With the placement of the low now what model has been the most on point?
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by Vinnydula Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:32 pm
Also what models are the best 48 hours out?
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by Snowfall Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:34 pm
. I agree this is local model time that's what I call them I sat in front of the tv and watch heavy bands come all the way to queens and like they just turned backnyrfan31 wrote:Didn't the short range models nail Juno last year while the long range models (specifically the Euro) showed the Tri-state getting hammered? Just some food for thought, a lot of the short range models are solid for the area.
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by NjWeatherGuy Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:36 pm
Waiting on SREF individual members, more telling than general spread...
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Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call
by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:47 pm
Ughhhhhh I'm trying so hard to think positively but this just reminds me of all those storms that year DC/BM had Snowmegedon. I feel like we are sorta grasping at straws because of how great this looked on Sun/Mon. :-/
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