01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It?

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:58 pm

The Metro region is under Blizzard Watches, Winter Storm Watches, and Coastal Flood Watches in advance of a powerful storm set to strike Saturday morning. There is no sugar coating it - the models have not done well with this system. The latest GFS and GEFS put NYC back under warning criteria type of snow, while the EURO keeps the brunt of the storm south of NYC. The NAM is overdone with precipitation but the track of the surface low intrigues me. Global models track the surface low up the coast but as convection develops on the east side of the trough, they end up re-developing a secondary LLC (low level center) which keeps the heaviest precipitation off the coast. Some have pegged this as convective feedback and others believe it's a plausible scenario. For whatever it is worth, the NAM does not "jump" the LLC east. It keeps it tugged to the coast which is why it's showing the greatest snow accumulations.

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? 12z_gfs_valid_12z_sat

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? 12z_gfs_valid_12z_sat

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? 18z_gfs_valid_12z_sat

The top image is 250mb winds from the 12z GFS valid 12z Saturday (7am). The bottom is the 18z GFS for the same time frame. Notice how the latest GFS has higher 250mb heights up the coast. The southern jet streak is also much stronger than the 12z GFS one. This means the storm is working with better dynamics which is partly why the 18z GFS shows a more significant snowfall than the 12z GFS.

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? Gusts

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? Gusts

Here are 10M wind gusts valid Saturday morning. Sustained winds are likely to be in the 30-40mph range along the Shore which is pretty impressive. The Full Moon and high winds pushing the surge will result in coastal flooding. I highly recommend those along the Shore Points, especially from Seaside Heights and south, prepare yourselves for the worst because coastal flooding + blizzard-like conditions is not something to mess around with. Power outages are possible so please prepare.

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? 850mb_temps

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? 850mb_temps

Strong easterly winds off the warm Atlantic Ocean may warm 850mb levels for a period of time. Notice the warm "nose" sticking into the Point Pleasant area. The winds will be at there strongest when the 500mb low is to our south and west. Once the 500mb low is south-southeast of NJ, winds should turn more northerly and any possible mix will change to snow. Since 700mb and 925mb are cold, it is possible precipitation stays as mostly snow with some sleet mixed in. Either way, do not be surprised if you do not stay all snow for the entire duration of this event.

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? 2nd_call_snow_map_january_23_storm

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? 2nd_call_snow_map_january_23_storm

My 2nd call snow map expands some higher accumulations to areas N&W of NYC. The cut-offs will be razor sharp with this storm. It is just the nature of how it comes together. Be advised the afternoon models began hinting at another north trend. As mentioned above, if the 500mb low and H250 jet streaks tracks further north, this will tug the coastal low closer to the coast and bring higher snow amounts to those around NYC and north. I think there is a good shot of the north trend continuing on tonight's 00z runs. This is a powerful storm that will tap into the Gulf and be invigorated by the Sub-Tropical Jet Stream. Even if the surface low stays south of the BM, I can see enhanced frontogenesis reaching our area once the CCB takes over. This will be an interesting storm to track. A true "nowcast" event!

A final update and snow map will come tomorrow.

Best,

Frank

by nancy-j-s Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:01 pm

Thanks, Frank - I think I speak for all when I say we appreciate all the work you put into this forum.

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:03 pm

Nice Frank!!! You think the trend will continue, huh?

by **snow247** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:07 pm

Again... SREFS!!!!!!!!

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? SREFNE24Precip21054

by **frank 638** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:09 pm

Good job frank I am glad that I still have a foot in my areaI hope by tomorrow the total will go up get your rest and have a good night .thanks again frank

by snowlover 12345 Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:10 pm

Frank, the short range models are as consistent as can be - seems that way to me, while the long range models are going back and fourth. Its not even a long range event any more… doesn't this lead you to think the short range models are onto something?

by **frank 638** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:10 pm

Here we go again south north south north lol will this storm make up its mind

by **snow247** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:12 pm

WOW at the new SREFS!

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? Sref_namer_057_mslp

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:13 pm

snowlover 12345 wrote:Frank, the short range models are as consistent as can be - seems that way to me, while the long range models are going back and fourth. Its not even a long range event any more… doesn't this lead you to think the short range models are onto something?

It's a good point, but the NAM is just a terrible model. I absolutely despise it even though I still post it for everyone to see. That said, the NAM has support from the SREFS, RPM, and maybe even the GFS now. We'll find out tonight. I honestly feel like we have not seen the final solution. Whether good or bad.

by **RJB8525** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:13 pm

i appreciate you not writing me off and keeping me in the goods

hey in the end i'll take anything to be honest just let it snow

by **frank 638** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:13 pm

By the what is the name of this storm

by **RJB8525** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:14 pm

frank 638 wrote:By the what is the name of this storm

Jonas

by **sroc4** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:16 pm

Frank I am def in your camp right now with your totals. Work has prevented me from really digesting today much plus I want the 00z under my belt. Nice second map.

by snowlover 12345 Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:18 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
snowlover 12345 wrote:Frank, the short range models are as consistent as can be - seems that way to me, while the long range models are going back and fourth. Its not even a long range event any more… doesn't this lead you to think the short range models are onto something?

It's a good point, but the NAM is just a terrible model. I absolutely despise it even though I still post it for everyone to see. That said, the NAM has support from the SREFS, RPM, and maybe even the GFS now. We'll find out tonight. I honestly feel like we have not seen the final solution. Whether good or bad.

Frank, I agree the NAM is terrible, its just too hard to write it off with more support from other models and in decent close range. I also agree this will change, possibly for the better. When does the new GFS come out?

by HEATMISER Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:18 pm

When do you think blizzard warnings will go up for Long Island if they do?

by mwilli5783 Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:19 pm

just read something for the epawa saying that the storm will shift north and west they read the nam and where areas getting 6-12 will change to 12-18 areas 3-6 will now get a 4-8 etc etc,this was there 8pm reading..might wanna check them out....

by Aiosamoney21 Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:20 pm

snowlover 12345 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
snowlover 12345 wrote:Frank, the short range models are as consistent as can be - seems that way to me, while the long range models are going back and fourth. Its not even a long range event any more… doesn't this lead you to think the short range models are onto something?

It's a good point, but the NAM is just a terrible model. I absolutely despise it even though I still post it for everyone to see. That said, the NAM has support from the SREFS, RPM, and maybe even the GFS now. We'll find out tonight. I honestly feel like we have not seen the final solution. Whether good or bad.

Frank, I agree the NAM is terrible, its just too hard to write it off with more support from other models and in decent close range. I also agree this will change, possibly for the better. When does the new GFS come out?

10:30pm

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:20 pm

sroc4 wrote:Frank I am def in your camp right now with your totals. Work has prevented me from really digesting today much plus I want the 00z under my belt. Nice second map.

Molto grazie

snowlover 12345 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
snowlover 12345 wrote:Frank, the short range models are as consistent as can be - seems that way to me, while the long range models are going back and fourth. Its not even a long range event any more… doesn't this lead you to think the short range models are onto something?

It's a good point, but the NAM is just a terrible model. I absolutely despise it even though I still post it for everyone to see. That said, the NAM has support from the SREFS, RPM, and maybe even the GFS now. We'll find out tonight. I honestly feel like we have not seen the final solution. Whether good or bad.

Frank, I agree the NAM is terrible, its just too hard to write it off with more support from other models and in decent close range. I also agree this will change, possibly for the better. When does the new GFS come out?

10:30pm

HEATMISER wrote:When do you think blizzard warnings will go up for Long Island if they do?

Could stay as a watch if surface low stays south. If they do decide warning it will be tomorrow afternoon.

by **billg315** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:22 pm

I have to say, and I'm not as good at reading all the models as lots of other folks here, but it sure seems to me there is far more guidance pointing toward this storm producing on the higher end in terms of snowfall for most of NJ and the NYC area. If that's not the case the NAM is completely wrong, the GFS is largely wrong, the RAP is off, the SREFS is off, and even the Euro which has had some runs with decent snowfall would be off. My anecdotal observation is bolstered in my mind by the fact that the NWS, which I've always found to be conservative went from a WSW for almost the whole state this morning, to a Blizzard Watch at midday for most of the state, and has stuck with that.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:22 pm

mwilli5783 wrote:just read something for the epawa saying that the storm will shift north and west they read the nam and where areas getting 6-12 will change to 12-18 areas 3-6 will now get a 4-8 etc etc,this was there 8pm reading..might wanna check them out....

I use to work with them Smile

It is very possible, but there needs to be consistency before broadcasting to the public a 12-18 storm. What if 00z runs go south? I doubt there are big shifts in track tomorrow. Models are not THAT bad...

by **Math23x7** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:23 pm

For the 26 individual members of the 21Z SREF, I put the snow totals for LaGuardia Airport onto Excel. I sorted them from smallest to largest. Talk about comical it is from the smallest amount to the largest amount:

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? Sreflg10

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? Sreflg10

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:25 pm

Mike, you are an asset to this board and I have a slight man crush on you.

by **Math23x7** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:27 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Mike, you are an asset to this board and I have a slight man crush on you.

by snowlover 12345 Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:27 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
mwilli5783 wrote:just read something for the epawa saying that the storm will shift north and west they read the nam and where areas getting 6-12 will change to 12-18 areas 3-6 will now get a 4-8 etc etc,this was there 8pm reading..might wanna check them out....

I use to work with them

It is very possible, but there needs to be consistency before broadcasting to the public a 12-18 storm. What if 00z runs go south? I doubt there are big shifts in track tomorrow. Models are not THAT bad...

haha i think they are THAT bad...

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:27 pm

Frank I will ask your opinion on this only once, I have seen the wind maps and they have close to 50kt gusts into my area, do you forsee them expanding the blizzard watch into southern westchester and maybe even southern ct if it trends north a bit or even stays status quo? NWS wsw meets blizzard criteria thats why i do not understand.

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