Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:03 pm

Still just WSWatch IN Orange County and that's for up to 6 inches max. NWS Is not convinced of northern trend yet cutoff is still very sharp so I can't say I blame them.

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:04 pm

rb924119 wrote:Here's the current 500 hPa setup and my thoughts as to where the center (closed low) will form based on the wind field in the trough (in red).....

Looks decent to me lol

Also looks like the s/w is coming onto the NW shore...top left corner

by **frank 638** Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:06 pm

what time will Frank have his final snow map

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:06 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Grselig wrote:Wow. Jman u said this earlier but u r correct. A few days ago I was expecting a dusting. Now we are flirting with feet
I always had a good feeling and wow at gfs on cusp of 15 to 20 wow wow.

Okay Jman let's not rewrite history Very Happy

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:12 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Here's the current 500 hPa setup and my thoughts as to where the center (closed low) will form based on the wind field in the trough (in red).....

Looks decent to me lol

Also looks like the s/w is coming onto the NW shore...top left corner

Yeah. It's going to depend on how much that topples to ridge, and how much longer the trough can remain open. The location of where I think it will is ok, but we need that ridge to hold strong as long as possible to allow for further northward propagation. I'm honestly still not sold on much snow getting north of NYC; I think it's gonna go from 8-16"-ish in the City to 1-3" about 40-50 miles north. This deformation band that will set up is going to be the northern extent of the precip, there won't be anything that makes it beyond that band because of the subsidence, and based on the modeling of H5, which is STILL progged to come offshore just north of the NC/VA border, I am not sure how much of this northward progress it will be able to make come crunch-time. The best forcing for the CCB is going to be about 200-250 miles northwest of the H5/H7 closed lows, which puts Baltimore, D.C., Philly and into central NJ in the bullseye. Just my honest thoughts, and I haven't looked at too much today after the 12z CMC so the new data may change my mind. Idk.

by **Grselig** Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:12 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Grselig wrote:Wow. Jman u said this earlier but u r correct. A few days ago I was expecting a dusting. Now we are flirting with feet
I always had a good feeling and wow at gfs on cusp of 15 to 20 wow wow.

Okay Jman let's not rewrite history

Don't forget the victors write the history books. Let's hope that's us.

by Nyi1058 Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:13 pm

frank 638 wrote:what time will Frank have his final snow map

relax dude , he has a job .

by **WeatherBob** Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:14 pm

Does anyone have the 12z euro snow map to post?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:15 pm

Grselig wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Grselig wrote:Wow. Jman u said this earlier but u r correct. A few days ago I was expecting a dusting. Now we are flirting with feet
I always had a good feeling and wow at gfs on cusp of 15 to 20 wow wow.

Okay Jman let's not rewrite history

Don't forget the victors write the history books. Let's hope that's us.

Good stuff Griselig.

by meeka312 Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:43 pm

this site crash? havent seen an update in 30 minutes.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:44 pm

No posts for 22 minutes?

Was it something I said?

by **RJB8525** Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:45 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:No posts for 22 minutes?

Was it something I said?

Lmao maybe

by meeka312 Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:45 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:No posts for 22 minutes?

Was it something I said?

i think so

by **mako460** Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:47 pm

everyone is exhausted!

by meeka312 Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:47 pm

i do have a question though. my wife works a little south off exit 100 on the parkway and gets out at 930pm .... she should be ok driving home (north to 109) at that time right?

by smoggy14 Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:51 pm

really though, are wives ever ok driving?

(sorry, I had to). Yes I believe she'll be fine at that time. Close call, but fine.

by meeka312 Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:53 pm

smoggy14 wrote:really though, are wives ever ok driving?

(sorry, I had to). Yes I believe she'll be fine at that time. Close call, but fine.

lol no they arent but she is 6.5 months pregnant so worry a little more now.

by **Taffy** Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:55 pm

Meeka, I'm at exit 135 GSP. Wunderground Weather is predicting possible light flurries around 9:15. With the real snow starting around 10. I think she'll be okay. Hope this helps.

edit wrong poster.

by Guest Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:56 pm

Guys I would love a MET to tell me what kind of ratios they expect. Im on Li and its 26 degrees and dropping. We will wet bulb with the snow easily down into the low 20's and snow all night at that number. Then tomorrow I don't think we hit 30. Ratios have to be MINIMUM 13:1 tonight no? And tomorrow possibly higher under any CCB bands. I'M NOT BEING GREEDY, JUST SAYING WITH THE QPF. FORECAST AND THESE TEMPS, AMOUNTS MIGHT BE 3-5" HIGHER, [b]especially for interior and northern guys who might be 15:1+ overcoming a lack of QPF there.

by **GreyBeard** Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:57 pm

If her boss had 1/2 a heart, the employees would get let out a little early considering the circumstances.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:57 pm

New thread.

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