Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It?

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:10 am

Just my two cents the storm looks impressive and now models may be worthless anyway. More ofvacwatch and see.

by WOLVES1 Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:33 am

I'm not even close to you guys at this but to me it looks like the GFS is trying to move closer to the NAM.

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:00 am

06z NAVGEM is a huge hit for tri-state...

by **oldtimer** Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:09 am

NWS Blizzard Warning 6"-10" Actually I thought Blizzard would be over 1'

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:12 am

algae888 wrote:nws has the same maps as yesterday afternoon... actually they upped totals in my area a bit

currently 22* at the park nice fresh cold air for this storm to work with

Yep al they pushed totals up saw the Euro came north, and 06z NAM welll.....I have no words lol. warning for us on the cusp of blizzard warning (though the warning for manhattan is for same amount of snow just winds gust to 55 instead of 30), wouldnt be surprised to see it upgraded with a slight tick north at 12z.

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:18 am

06z gfs did come north, it was near nothing at 00z now it has 6-8 nyc, let this trend north about 25-50 miles more north at 12z and its a lock i think woooo

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:19 am

SoulSingMG wrote:06z NAVGEM is a huge hit for tri-state...

yes around a foot.

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:32 am

I don't know if models mean much at this point

by **billg315** Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:52 am

I woke up to a blizzard warning and all the forecasts back up to over a foot for my area as well as word the Euro and GFS are back on board. I'll say this: the NAM and short range type models have been very consistent with this while Euro and GFS are jumping around seeming confused. Both Euro and GFS keep hinting they want to come toward the NAM. We're now only 18 hours out. I've got to side with consistency and most common trends at this point.

by **RJB8525** Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:54 am

snow247 wrote:GFS and Euro still look terrible for half of the board while the NAM crushes all of us.

That trend will apparently not break

It's basically now casting already

by **billg315** Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:58 am

I'm to the point where I am just going all in on my area getting 10-14, NYC getting 8-12, north and northwest of NYC 4-8" and south Jersey (interior near Philly where they don't get mixing) 12-24". Just above the 4-8" area a sharp cutoff of 1-4". If it doesn't happen this way I'll just deal with it.

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:01 am

billg315 wrote:I'm to the point where I am just going all in on my area getting 10-14, NYC getting 8-12, north and northwest of NYC 4-8" and south Jersey (interior near Philly where they don't get mixing) 12-24". Just above the 4-8" area a sharp cutoff of 1-4". If it doesn't happen this way I'll just deal with it.

Sounds like a plan, but I also think its quite possible amounts go up for arears around nyc and south. But not much further than southern westchester northern NY and now maybe southern CT.

by **snow247** Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:11 am

Parts of southern Illinois and Ohio already expecting to bust high on snow totals due to a more expansive northern fringe.

by Biggin23 Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:14 am

If I don't mix I'm well over a foot, if I do mix probably around 8 inches. Going to be close....I'm 20 miles east of Trenton and about 15 from the shore as a crow flys

by **billg315** Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:16 am

Biggin I think you may see some sleet mix in at times but still stay mostly snow so it doesn't dramatically lower your total. I think east of you mixing has an affect on totals though.

by **Math23x7** Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:17 am

WHERE IS FRANK?

by **billg315** Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:18 am

I'm watching radar at this point. Interested to see how far into Ohio/Indiana the northern edge gets. Looks like storm is about 4-5 hours from starting in DC.

by **Quietace** Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:18 am

billg315 wrote:Biggin I think you may see some sleet mix in at times but still stay mostly snow so it doesn't dramatically lower your total. I think east of you mixing has an affect on totals though.

Where she is absolutely not. Myself, yes, could happen, hence when I made my snow map I had myself in 6-10. Just part of life on the shore

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:20 am

Ok here is my 2nd call snow map. I really like what I see, not only in the trends in the models, but also current observations.
01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 21 <a href=

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 21 <a href=

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 21 Second10

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by **Quietace** Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:21 am

Current H5
01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 21 500mb10

by Biggin23 Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:22 am

Quietace wrote:
billg315 wrote:Biggin I think you may see some sleet mix in at times but still stay mostly snow so it doesn't dramatically lower your total. I think east of you mixing has an affect on totals though.
Where she is absolutely not. Myself, yes, could happen, hence when I made my snow map I had myself in 6-10. Just part of life on the shore

Either way, it is going to be awesome. If I get a foot of snow, it will be the most I have ever seen at one time. Moved here 1.5 years ago...bad thing is, I moved from just outside DC, LOL. Going to be fun this weekend!!

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:24 am

sroc4 wrote:Ok here is my 2nd call snow map. I may be the most bullish here but I really like what I see, not only in the trends in the models, but also current observations.
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sroc4 is thst a mean joke leaving southern westchester and staten island blank lol. Is thst in the 8 to 14 I presume? Lol awesome map

by **billg315** Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:25 am

Sroc, if I had map drawing skills mine would look a lot like yours. I think you are on target (as much as we can be at this point).

by **Dtone** Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:26 am

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Ok here is my 2nd call snow map. I may be the most bullish here but I really like what I see, not only in the trends in the models, but also current observations.
" />
sroc4 is thst a mean joke leaving southern westchester blank lol. Is thst in the 8 to 14 I presume? Lol

lol Sunny skies in Staten Island, Manhattan, Bx, Westchester

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:29 am

Quietace wrote:Current H5

by **billg315** Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:31 am

Looks like a pretty good ridge out west. Am I looking at that correctly?

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:34 am

billg315 wrote:Looks like a pretty good ridge out west. Am I looking at that correctly?

Absolutely correct. Looks great

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