01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It?

Frank_Wx wrote:

mwilli5783 wrote:just read something for the epawa saying that the storm will shift north and west they read the nam and where areas getting 6-12 will change to 12-18 areas 3-6 will now get a 4-8 etc etc,this was there 8pm reading..might wanna check them out....

I use to work with them

It is very possible, but there needs to be consistency before broadcasting to the public a 12-18 storm. What if 00z runs go south? I doubt there are big shifts in track tomorrow. Models are not THAT bad...

haha i think they are THAT bad...

Frank I will ask your opinion on this only once, I have seen the wind maps and they have close to 50kt gusts into my area, do you forsee them expanding the blizzard watch into southern westchester and maybe even southern ct if it trends north a bit or even stays status quo? NWS wsw meets blizzard criteria thats why i do not understand.

that info came from my facebook page(epawa)

Math23x7 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Mike, you are an asset to this board and I have a slight man crush on you.

LOL, he really is

jmanley32 wrote:Frank I will ask your opinion on this only once, I have seen the wind maps and they have close to 50kt gusts into my area, do you forsee them expanding the blizzard watch into southern westchester and maybe even southern ct if it trends north a bit or even stays status quo? NWS wsw meets blizzard criteria thats why i do not understand.

If the track of the storm trends north - so will the blizzard watches. Not for CT but for those just north of NYC yes.

So yes my area in other words (was ask about CT for my friend) ok thx, do you think they have taken into consideration the trend north on the advisories map or do u think they are waiting for the 00z?

Those numbers do show what kind of an impressive storm it is though. 5 complete whiffs and still averaging just under 9 inches. Either that or it shows why it took me 3 tries to pass statistics with a "C".

Mike, can you do the same analysis for the 21z SREFS??

The NAM should be in shortly correct? I know you hate it Frank but lets hope it stays north with those nutty totals ( I know we won't see that much but to show that much means at least a foot I would guess)

MIKE THE LATEST SREFS ARE MADONNE WORTHY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

For what its worth, the 18z GFS projection of where the precipitation shield would be, (how big, areas of greatest intensity, how far north, etc) around 7-8 p.m. is almost exactly what the current radar shows.

Day in the life of the SREFS today.

mwilli5783 wrote:just read something for the epawa saying that the storm will shift north and west they read the nam and where areas getting 6-12 will change to 12-18 areas 3-6 will now get a 4-8 etc etc,this was there 8pm reading..might wanna check them out....

Just read the EPAWA's new write-up and it's fantastic! I hope they're right

http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/

So if its as accurate for the next 24 hours as the first 6 we're in good shape

When does the new NAM come out?

The 00z NAM has started

Thanks to all, especially Frank, for providing honest analysts and information on a nearly continuous basis so people like me can follow and understand the dynamics that are in play. Hoping the next runs all move North

dsvinos wrote:

mwilli5783 wrote:just read something for the epawa saying that the storm will shift north and west they read the nam and where areas getting 6-12 will change to 12-18 areas 3-6 will now get a 4-8 etc etc,this was there 8pm reading..might wanna check them out....

Just read the EPAWA's new write-up and it's fantastic!  I hope they're right

http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/

Our maps are almost alike. They are a bit more NW than me.

Mac003 wrote:Thanks to all, especially Frank, for providing honest analysts and information on a nearly continuous basis so people like me can follow and understand the dynamics that are in play. Hoping the next runs all move North

No problem Mac. Thanks for being here.

And a sincere thank you to all the new members who have joined over the last 2 weeks. This place is awesome.

Frank_Wx wrote:The 00z NAM has started

Why am I torturing myself?

You know what's cool about the 00z NAM run so far? You can see the upper energy over Florida coming out of the Gulf. This system is going to be fueled like crazy.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:The 00z NAM has started

Why am I torturing myself?

You will go to bed a happy man tonight.

Thanks Frank I am under your predicted area of 12-18".

snowlover78 wrote:Thanks Frank I am under your predicted area of 12-18".

Let the force be with you.