01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It?

billg315 wrote:Looks like a pretty good ridge out west. Am I looking at that correctly?

Absolutely correct. Looks great

SoulSingMG wrote:

NWS totally not buying this for my area in the HV.They have me down for 2 to 4,LOL

billg315 wrote:This is probably a bad explanation so someone can correct me, but picture a hose or string curved in that shape with a ridge to the left and a trough to the right. If you start to push down on the high part of the hose/string on your left, it will flatten/straighten out the part on your right. With a flatter flow the storm is more likely to get carried out eastward rather than coming up north, and it also is likely to be weaker and more spread out. Ok, now the real mets on here can correct this poor explanation. Lol.

Its a great explantation.  Here is a little expantion.  First image is the current conditions at 500mb. Currently we have a neutral trough(north to south trough axis) and a beautiful ridge.  If you follow the wind barbs you can see the path the LP will take as we move along.    



In an ideal world as the 500mb level closes off to form the ULL, upper level low, and the entire ridge/trough complex progresses east, the trough axis begins to tilt into a negative orientation, SE-NW.  This would ideally occur as the LP center exits the coast.  The 500mb wind barbs would then steer the LP center N before it heads NE.  

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In our case however, models have been hinting at a shortwave that will be riding over the top of the ridge over the next 24-36hrs.  
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This is where Billg your explanation comes in.  As youll see below this short wave "pushes down" on the ridge which in effect leads the NE quadrant of the ridge to "fold over" the top of the trough.(I used the CMC simply to illustrate the point)  This tilts the trough axis positive.  Instead of a neg tilted trough which brings the LP center S to N or even back NW in some instances(ie: Sandy) the positively tilted trough creates a more progressive flow out ahead of the LP and directs the LP more SW-NE or even WWSW to ENE.  
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The timing of where the ULL is, how strong it is, where the surface LP is and how strong it is, and just how much of a positive tilt occurs over the next 24-36hr, or lack thereof will be crucial in determining how far north the precip shield can make it.

What do u think the start time might be for River Edge nj - northern nj. We are sitting for a family member and people will a traveling. Want to make sure we all r safe

SoulSingMG wrote:

hot damn!

sroc4 wrote:

billg315 wrote:This is probably a bad explanation so someone can correct me, but picture a hose or string curved in that shape with a ridge to the left and a trough to the right. If you start to push down on the high part of the hose/string on your left, it will flatten/straighten out the part on your right. With a flatter flow the storm is more likely to get carried out eastward rather than coming up north, and it also is likely to be weaker and more spread out. Ok, now the real mets on here can correct this poor explanation. Lol.

Its a great explantation.  Here is a little expantion.  First image is the current conditions at 500mb. Currently we have a neutral trough(north to south trough axis) and a beautiful ridge.  If you follow the wind barbs you can see the path the LP will take as we move along.    



In an ideal world as the 500mb level closes off to form the ULL, upper level low, and the entire ridge/trough complex progresses east, the trough axis begins to tilt into a negative orientation, SE-NW.  This would ideally occur as the LP center exits the coast.  The 500mb wind barbs would then steer the LP center N before it heads NE.  

" />

In our case however, models have been hinting at a shortwave that will be riding over the top of the ridge over the next 24-36hrs.  
" />

This is where Billg your explanation comes in.  As youll see below this short wave "pushes down" on the ridge which in effect leads the NE quadrant of the ridge to "fold over" the top of the trough.(I used the CMC simply to illustrate the point)  This tilts the trough axis positive.  Instead of a neg tilted trough which brings the LP center S to N or even back NW in some instances(ie: Sandy) the positively tilted trough creates a more progressive flow out ahead of the LP and directs the LP more SW-NE or even WWSW to ENE.  
" />

The timing of where the ULL is, how strong it is, where the surface LP is and how strong it is, and just how much of a positive tilt occurs over the next 24-36hr, or lack thereof will be crucial in determining how far north the precip shield can make it.

Excellent Doc with Billg contributing.Now I understand why this storm heads more E than N.