Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It?

by **Quietace** January 22nd 2016, 4:29 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Dtone wrote:NWS updated. 10" - 18" for NYC metro

BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE FIVE BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY...COASTAL
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 18 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND
STRONG WINDS WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS LIKELY. SECONDARY AND
TERTIARY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN
POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS.

Awe come on I am so close to that its not even funny lol

I believe we talked about this last year. It is all a formality objection.

by **jimv45** January 22nd 2016, 4:32 pm

I know its the weather channel but just an hour ago they had me at 1-3 now 5-8 keep the north thing going!!

by **jmanley32** January 22nd 2016, 4:32 pm

Quietace wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Dtone wrote:NWS updated. 10" - 18" for NYC metro

BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE FIVE BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY...COASTAL
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 18 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND
STRONG WINDS WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS LIKELY. SECONDARY AND
TERTIARY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN
POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS.

Awe come on I am so close to that its not even funny lol
I believe we talked about this last year. It is all a formality objection.

Yes we did sorry, and I read NWS reasoning thinking winds wont be as strong, but have me at 35mph, but ur right whatever, it just sounds cool lol

by **Quietace** January 22nd 2016, 4:34 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Dtone wrote:NWS updated. 10" - 18" for NYC metro

BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE FIVE BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY...COASTAL
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 18 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND
STRONG WINDS WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS LIKELY. SECONDARY AND
TERTIARY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN
POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS.

Awe come on I am so close to that its not even funny lol
I believe we talked about this last year. It is all a formality objection.

Yes we did sorry, and I read NWS reasoning thinking winds wont be as strong, but have me at 35mph, but ur right whatever, it just sounds cool lol

Its clear you'll see blizzard conditions, but you know, the NWS has rules, and not everyone in your county might so they cant issue it.

by Sharon117 January 22nd 2016, 4:36 pm

I am truly in awe of this storm!

by snowlover 12345 January 22nd 2016, 4:38 pm

Whose got the new GFS that is coming out right now?

by **snow247** January 22nd 2016, 4:38 pm

GFS looking north!

by **snow247** January 22nd 2016, 4:40 pm

30+ MILES NORTH THIS RUN.

by snowlover 12345 January 22nd 2016, 4:40 pm

Hearing its looking like the NAM just not so crazy high in QPF

by **snow247** January 22nd 2016, 4:41 pm

by **snow247** January 22nd 2016, 4:43 pm

Time for Upton to increase amounts for northern areas.

by **billg315** January 22nd 2016, 4:44 pm

Well, the GFS finally caved almost completely to the NAM.

by Biggin23 January 22nd 2016, 4:48 pm

Taking a while for the snow to get across the NJ state line, LOL

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** January 22nd 2016, 4:50 pm

GFS PUTS Orange County solidly in 12-16 area. I'd be a happy man. Not gonna get greedy.

by **RJB8525** January 22nd 2016, 4:50 pm

Thanks for the maps snow, holding it down lol

by meeka312 January 22nd 2016, 4:54 pm

When is Frank's new snow map coming?

by **Grselig** January 22nd 2016, 4:54 pm

Wow. Jman u said this earlier but u r correct. A few days ago I was expecting a dusting. Now we are flirting with feet

by **SoulSingMG** January 22nd 2016, 4:54 pm

What we have seen today re. models is ASTOUNDING and rivals Boxing Day. Blown away. Wouldn't be surprised if NYC gets a 20" storm

by **rb924119** January 22nd 2016, 4:59 pm

Here's the current 500 hPa setup and my thoughts as to where the center (closed low) will form based on the wind field in the trough (in red).....

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 40 Slide113

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 40 Slide113

Looks decent to me lol

by **frank 638** January 22nd 2016, 5:01 pm

I think we can see 20 inches because the storm is getting stronger lots of moisture I can't wait thank god we are getting this storm I am so excited

by emokid51783 January 22nd 2016, 5:01 pm

Where is the H5 going to form?!?!?! It's like Christmas Morning!!!!1111!!11

by **jmanley32** January 22nd 2016, 5:02 pm

Grselig wrote:Wow. Jman u said this earlier but u r correct. A few days ago I was expecting a dusting. Now we are flirting with feet

I always had a good feeling and wow at gfs on cusp of 15 to 20 wow wow.

by **frank 638** January 22nd 2016, 5:02 pm

The Weather Channel has me 12:18 inches of snow

by **jmanley32** January 22nd 2016, 5:02 pm

rb924119 wrote:Here's the current 500 hPa setup and my thoughts as to where the center (closed low) will form based on the wind field in the trough (in red).....

Looks decent to me lol

assuming u mean that's a very good spot

by **sroc4** January 22nd 2016, 5:03 pm

rb924119 wrote:Here's the current 500 hPa setup and my thoughts as to where the center (closed low) will form based on the wind field in the trough (in red).....

Looks decent to me lol

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** January 22nd 2016, 5:03 pm

Still just WSWatch IN Orange County and that's for up to 6 inches max. NWS Is not convinced of northern trend yet cutoff is still very sharp so I can't say I blame them.

by **sroc4** January 22nd 2016, 5:04 pm

rb924119 wrote:Here's the current 500 hPa setup and my thoughts as to where the center (closed low) will form based on the wind field in the trough (in red).....

Looks decent to me lol

Also looks like the s/w is coming onto the NW shore...top left corner

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