Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It?

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:18 pm

Lee Goldberg has no clue.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:18 pm

billg315 wrote:This is exactly what concerns me. It would not be unprecedented for the NAM to bust. But it just blows my mind that it could be this far off, this close to the storm, this often. I'm not going to write it off until I see what happens in the next 24 hours, but I really do feel like Charlie Brown and the NAM is Lucy holding the football right now.

The only reason I somewhat believed it was because of the support of the other SR models.

SR and LR are giving two totally different solutions.

by Abba701 Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:19 pm

Looks like CMC snowfall is a little better then GFS in the city

by **billg315** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:19 pm

What worries me is, we've seen this before. Almost exactly. Feb 5-6, 2010.

by **snow247** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:19 pm

Carbon copy of 2/6/2010

I'm out..

by Guest Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:22 pm

snow247 wrote:Carbon copy of 2/6/2010

I'm out..

EXACTLY THE SAME!!!!!!!!!I"VE ALLOWED MYSELF TO BE PULLED BACK IN 4 SEPERATE TIMES NOW!!!!!BY A MODEL WE BANNED FROM SAYING ON THIS SITE LAST YEAR> GOODNIGHT ALL!! CNJ AND SOUTH CONGRATS> I ONLY ASK THAT I GET 0"

by **Math23x7** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:23 pm

billg315 wrote:What worries me is, we've seen this before. Almost exactly. Feb 5-6, 2010.

Without question Bill. I remember I was at Manhattan College in Riverdale back then. I was looking at the radar much of that evening and it showed snow over us, so I assumed the snow was coming and I waited and I waited and I waited. Eventually, I got too tired and crashed. I woke up the next morning, nothing! And the radar still had snow over us. This storm gave me the first real exposure to "virga" snow. We had 18 hours of virga going from 9 PM Friday the 5th to 3 PM Saturday the 6th. It was crushing....just crushing....

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:25 pm

So are we officially calling this done? Only central to s jersey really gets into the snow. I dunno if I can take another day of this lol

by **2004blackwrx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:25 pm

Maybe Im spoiled but my history remembers this. http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/east-coast-snowstorm-may-be-historic-2016 large storms for the most part have my area of HV in the 20-30 range the way big Northeast storms should be

by **Math23x7** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:26 pm

Also I asked DT about his thoughts on the 21Z SREF for NYC. His response: "NO CHANCE OF THAT"

by **billg315** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:27 pm

Math23x7 wrote:
billg315 wrote:What worries me is, we've seen this before. Almost exactly. Feb 5-6, 2010.
Without question Bill. I remember I was at Manhattan College in Riverdale back then. I was looking at the radar much of that evening and it showed snow over us, so I assumed the snow was coming and I waited and I waited and I waited. Eventually, I got too tired and crashed. I woke up the next morning, nothing! And the radar still had snow over us. This storm gave me the first real exposure to "virga" snow. We had 18 hours of virga going from 9 PM Friday the 5th to 3 PM Saturday the 6th. It was crushing....just crushing....

Boy, I sure hope this isn't a repeat, but hard not to think it may be right now.

by **devsman** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:30 pm

I like this storm. I think this storm will really show what model is worth it and which is not. I think it will be amazing to see what the north shore of LI gets and the south shore. Also, If the NAM and other short range pull this one out, I will be very impressed. See u guys tomorrow. GOOD LUCK!

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:31 pm

jmanley32 wrote:So are we officially calling this done? Only central to s jersey really gets into the snow. I dunno if I can take another day of this lol

We can't call it done when a difference of 20 miles is 10 inches

by Abba701 Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:32 pm

Is there a chance there is a bust in Philly as well?

by **Scullybutcher** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:34 pm

I'm with you frank. I'm expecting 6-10" if I get more great if I get less we move on to the next one. We could all move to Canada and be guaranteed snow if we like. I'll pray for the 10 mile jog north and maybe a foot

by **billg315** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:34 pm

Abba701 wrote:Is there a chance there is a bust in Philly as well?

I can't see Philly busting from this. I could see them not doing as well as DC/Balt/NVa but I think no matter what they get a big storm out of this.

by **RJB8525** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:35 pm

I'm interested in the next NWS updates

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:36 pm

Latest Diagnostic Discussion from WPC:

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM IS A NORTHWARD OUTLIER ALOFT SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING A SLOW OUTLIER THEREAFTER -- THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF
OCCASIONALLY BEING TOO SLOW. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z
ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.

by **2004blackwrx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:36 pm

no way is this done without model agreement this close in time.

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:36 pm

I honestly have a splitting headache at this point. SPLITTING, like the jet.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:38 pm

rb924119 wrote:Latest Diagnostic Discussion from WPC:

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM IS A NORTHWARD OUTLIER ALOFT SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING A SLOW OUTLIER THEREAFTER -- THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF
OCCASIONALLY BEING TOO SLOW. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z
ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.

well that says it all for my area.

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:38 pm

Frank, could you add this to the Maps thread? I posted this earlier but it looks like it never made it....

Here's my First Call ladies and gents (note that this was based on all data up to and including 12z runs today):

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 16 Jan22-11

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 16 Jan22-11

I'm not going to give an in-depth explanation, as I'm sure Frank will do so later tonight, but if you want me to just let me know. Anyway, I did not feel confident enough to 1) bring some of the higher totals through the Philadelphia region and into parts of central New Jersey, and 2) designate a region for greater than 18". I'm sure there will be localized spots that see more than that, but based on what I'm seeing I don't feel like those values will be common enough to warrant denotation. For anybody that this map angers (including myself), I sincerely apologize.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:42 pm

Nice map Ray, I think most of MD and SNJ will get into pretty high amounts.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:44 pm

Here we go again.

00z NAVGEM is north

by **dad4twoboys** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:45 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:45 pm

The 00z UKMET is north too

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:46 pm

dad4twoboys wrote:

Hahaha

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