Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[Grselig]

This is banter, but what a nice change!!!! Snow. Sub Zero temps (with wind chill) This is heaven. Last week I was in warm and sunny florida. Horrible. Warm. Lurking on this site hoping that the snow storm(s) held off till I got home. Bundle up and stay cold and snowy.

[Frank_Wx]

MJO entering a warm phase. 12z GEFS in agreement. We thaw beginning January 18th. Before then there could be 1-2 more snow events IMO. So instead of focusing on this thaw it's best to see what evolves out of January 9th then maybe again on the 15th as the PNA spikes again.

[rb924119]

Agree with all of the points made above, but unfortunately, I am pretty sick and don't have enough in me right now to do any in-depth analysis. However, hopefully I'll be good to go by the end of the weekend. Until then, I'll just be glancing at things and following along. Carry on lol

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

MJO entering a warm phase. 12z GEFS in agreement. We thaw beginning January 18th. Before then there could be 1-2 more snow events IMO. So instead of focusing on this thaw it's best to see what evolves out of January 9th then maybe again on the 15th as the PNA spikes again.

Well hopefully January 18th never arrives.

On second thought that would mean the destruction of the entire universe should time cease to continue to a certain point so let me rephrase. Hopefully the pattern does not Change on January 18th and make our Warmists on this thread happy. You all know who you are.

[Snow88]

I agree with Frank

We have a little event for Monday night which shouldn't amount to anything beside maybe an inch of snow and then a possible bigger storm next weekend.

[Frank_Wx]

The storm next weekend is still on the warmer side for us on current guidance. Changes will occur but im favoring wet than white at this time.

[skinsfan1177]

Did anyone see Ukie for snj Monday?

[jmanley32]

The storm next weekend is still on the warmer side for us on current guidance. Changes will occur but im favoring wet than white at this time.

im actually okay with that got travel plans via car but bring it on after the thaw.

[Snow88]

I think there will be a cutter and then a trailing wave after the cutter which could give us a snow event . We shall see.

[sroc4]

I still would not discount the idea of a transition from wet to white esp for the folks N&W.  Coast might be tough but still not dead yet either.  There are still differences in what's happening aloft and at the surface in both strength and timing of a few key players.  What IS happening is that there is a strong Canadian HP dropping south into the CONUS in response to what appears to be a +PNA ridge.  The result of this is HP also building in N of the great lakes at the same time the energy tries to cut to our west.  This would argue for the potential for a Miller B type scenario should the HP build in before the main energy cuts too far N into the GL or west of the Apps.  The extent and timing of the PNA ridging, the timing of the front, HP building in to the N of the GL, where the area of confluence sets up, and where the main vort max is coming out of the S relative to the timing of the aforementioned details is still somewhat in question.   One thing is for sure models have an extremely tough time resolving the true extent of the cold air on the evolution of the pattern which is the likely reason for differences in some of the details in the final soln.  We have seen examples of this several times thus far this winter season.  Between any left over snow pack in the NE and the injection of once again extremely cold air mass It would not surprise me, and you either, to see the system for late week to trend colder than what is currently modeled.  To what extent is yet to be determined.  DO NOT write it off just yet esp for the folks N&W.

[sroc4]

I think there will be a cutter and then a trailing wave after the cutter which could give us a snow event . We shall see.

Agree. See above

[Guest]

Not that I trust them because I don’t, but the NWS has us for rain Friday through Saturday night and 2” of qpf.

[HectorO]

Not that I trust them because I don’t, but the NWS has us for rain Friday through Saturday night and 2” of qpf.

Amazing how fast the moisture moves in when it warms up, but nowhere to be found these 2 frigid weeks we've had.

[docstox12]

Not that I trust them because I don’t, but the NWS has us for rain Friday through Saturday night and 2” of qpf.

Doc's analysis above is very interesting and it will be fun watching how it plays out.Not buying yet that bounce of temps into the mid 40's they have for me the end of next week.

[Guest]

Not that I trust them because I don’t, but the NWS has us for rain Friday through Saturday night and 2” of qpf.

Amazing how fast the moisture moves in when it warms up, but nowhere to be found these 2 frigid weeks we've had.

I usually feel like you do, but this last 16” of snow made this cold snap worthwhile to me.  Had we gone snowless I would have been extremely frustrated. Also there’s A LOT of cold air just to our north plus frigid ocean temps and a great snowpack. I think guidance will definitely trend colder. Seen this set up a million times.

[hyde345]

I still would not discount the idea of a transition from wet to white esp for the folks N&W.  Coast might be tough but still not dead yet either.  There are still differences in what's happening aloft and at the surface in both strength and timing of a few key players.  What IS happening is that there is a strong Canadian HP dropping south into the CONUS in response to what appears to be a +PNA ridge.  The result of this is HP also building in N of the great lakes at the same time the energy tries to cut to our west.  This would argue for the potential for a Miller B type scenario should the HP build in before the main energy cuts too far N into the GL or west of the Apps.  The extent and timing of the PNA ridging, the timing of the front, HP building in to the N of the GL, where the area of confluence sets up, and where the main vort max is coming out of the S relative to the timing of the aforementioned details is still somewhat in question.   One thing is for sure models have an extremely tough time resolving the true extent of the cold air on the evolution of the pattern which is the likely reason for differences in some of the details in the final soln.  We have seen examples of this several times thus far this winter season.  Between any left over snow pack in the NE and the injection of once again extremely cold air mass It would not surprise me, and you either, to see the system for late week to trend colder than what is currently modeled.  To what extent is yet to be determined.  DO NOT write it off just yet esp for the folks N&W.

I trust no guidance beyond 72 hours.

[algae888]

Not that I trust them because I don’t, but the NWS has us for rain Friday through Saturday night and 2” of qpf.

Amazing how fast the moisture moves in when it warms up, but nowhere to be found these 2 frigid weeks we've had.

I usually feel like you do, but this last 16” of snow made this cold snap worthwhile to me.  Had we gone snowless I would have been extremely frustrated. Also there’s A LOT of cold air just to our north plus frigid ocean temps and a great snowpack.  I think guidance will definitely trend colder.  Seen this set up a million times.

First of all almost all reporting stations are very close to there total snowfall for winter and we're only at January 7th. You do not need a lot of qpf to reach climo snowfall. Plus what do you expect when we are -20 temperature departures there will not be a ton of moisture with that. hasn't anybody learned anything on here the last several years. Take for example 95-96 after the blizzard we had a driving rainstorm a week later it happens every winter we can't go cold too cold snow to snow the entire winter

[docstox12]

I remember that 95-96 scenario well.I had over 36 inches on the ground when that rainstorm hit a few days later.It started as snow in Mahwah NJ, and it was heavy.In fact, close to 8 inches had accumulated putting me close to four feet.However, it changed to rain, the ultimate bummer of bummers.I remember rivers of water running down my driveway past the three foot snow tunnels I had dug out.Not liking what I see this morning as per NWS for Friday and Saturday.If they are right, it could be an episode of the old tv cop show Dragnet....."The Big Melt"! Stay tuned!

[Frank_Wx]

There will be a couple of days next week of normal or below normal temps, but for the most part, we're heading into a January thaw. -PNA/+NAO conditions will allow the SE Ridge to flex.

[Guest]

There will be a couple of days next week of normal or below normal temps, but for the most part, we're heading into a January thaw. -PNA/+NAO conditions will allow the SE Ridge to flex.

WARMICIST

[Snow88]

There will be a couple of days next week of normal or below normal temps, but for the most part, we're heading into a January thaw. -PNA/+NAO conditions will allow the SE Ridge to flex.

The thaw doesn't look too long

[algae888]

There will be a couple of days next week of normal or below normal temps, but for the most part, we're heading into a January thaw. -PNA/+NAO conditions will allow the SE Ridge to flex.

The thaw doesn't look too long

It's also not a pattern that's going to be above normal everyday for 2 weeks it's going to go below normal for a few days then above normal for a few days with snow chances in between on the cold ones. snow chance showing up between days 8 and 10 on most guidance I doubt if we'll go without snow for the rest of January for most of our area

[jmanley32]

Do you long range pros see any chances for Godzillas before spring? It seems January is shot for snow so we got Feb and I hear march go be early spring so essentially we have 4 to 5 weeks to get anymore storms.

[jmanley32]

There will be a couple of days next week of normal or below normal temps, but for the most part, we're heading into a January thaw. -PNA/+NAO conditions will allow the SE Ridge to flex.

The thaw doesn't look too long

It's also not a pattern that's going to be above normal everyday for 2 weeks it's going to go below normal for a few days then above normal for a few days with snow chances in between on the cold ones. snow chance showing up between days 8 and 10 on most guidance I doubt if we'll go without snow for the rest  of January for most of our area

slipped reading your post my bad but Jan looks less likely. What bout Feb?

[sroc4]

There will be a couple of days next week of normal or below normal temps, but for the most part, we're heading into a January thaw. -PNA/+NAO conditions will allow the SE Ridge to flex.

The thaw doesn't look too long

It's also not a pattern that's going to be above normal everyday for 2 weeks it's going to go below normal for a few days then above normal for a few days with snow chances in between on the cold ones. snow chance showing up between days 8 and 10 on most guidance I doubt if we'll go without snow for the rest  of January for most of our area

slipped reading your post my bad but Jan looks less likely. What bout Feb?

Jan will have its snow chances Jon. If you look at surface maps only you will likely miss it.

[amugs]

Feb is climtaologically our snowiest month. Will we have a godzilla chance Jon. I would say there is a possibility duentobthe warm water of the Atlantic.
Warm up seems to be two days warm, colds hits in between. Not some long drawn out torch. Canada is frigid. MJO seems to be stuck in phase 2 due to the convection false up in that region as per JB shows. IF THIS holds and doesn't go to null it will be interesting to see the downstream effete in the WPO and EPO regions.

[amugs]

Saturday is going to be interesting for the interior and NWNJ could be a big snow and ice storm. Lots to go neither this but euro went from 50''s (after Frank and Mike relinquished the joystick( to mid/upper 30''s for NYC metro and around 30 and upper 20''s for ruburb peeps.like hyde, cp,doc,rb,RB etc.

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