Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

by **amugs** Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:42 am

Skins absolutely my friend the WAR has been under modelled since the summer, why ? I haven't a clue maybe the latent heat of the Hotlantic and tell models have no roab data and have to rely of satellite imagery?

Look at the 6Z gefs
Wow some are really bad boys. Good sign. Models picking up on synoptic set up hemispherical here.
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 7 Gefs_slp_ens_east_23.png.8ce90ddb35f196fdb83402ba2a3e2564

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 7 Gefs_slp_ens_east_23.png.8ce90ddb35f196fdb83402ba2a3e2564

by **amugs** Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:45 am

If the wave spacing timing is on and we keep the west coast clean from any vorts crashing in then we will have a very good to great chance. Again IF these happen. Trend is our friend.

by **frank 638** Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:50 am

This is getting very exciting I don't want to jinx it let's hope these Trends continue for today tomorrow Monday and Tuesday

by **dkodgis** Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:56 am

Anticipation. If I can wait a year for a birthday, I can wait until Thursday. Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:32 am

I really liked the 500mb map depiction of the 12z NAM. Stronger ridge and shortwave lagging behind more thus causing earlier interaction with the northern stream.

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:55 am

Yes, I think the NAM would have been a BIG run. Also, anybody else notice the fact that per models this will be a WARM CORE system???? That would be beyond incredible, but is also the reason we are seeing outputs of extreme bombogenesis and lows that are sub-960 mb on modeling. The snow rates would be insane in the convective banding mid true.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:57 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:I really liked the 500mb map depiction of the 12z NAM. Stronger ridge and shortwave lagging behind more thus causing earlier interaction with the northern stream.

I like the tempered enthusiasm today from everyone regarding the possible outcomes for Thursday. Jman calling it wishcasting last night I also saw as a big positive. If he doesn't jump on board until the day before I think we're onto something.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:58 am

rb924119 wrote:Yes, I think the NAM would have been a BIG run. Also, anybody else notice the fact that per models this will be a WARM CORE system???? That would be beyond incredible, but is also the reason we are seeing outputs of extreme bombogenesis and lows that are sub-960 mb on modeling. The snow rates would be insane in the convective banding mid true.

East big guy, tempered enthusiasm. We've got a long way to go.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:00 am

The southern jet streak is lagging behind more on the GFS at hr 90.

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:02 am

That was just general discussion, CP, not excitement for our area per se' lol just remarking on how amazing that would be, regardless of whether it hit or not haha

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:03 am

Earlier phase on GFS......coming further west again.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:04 am

rb924119 wrote:That was just general discussion, CP, not excitement for our area per se' lol just remarking on how amazing that would be, regardless of whether it hit or not haha

We can all dream. Would love to see it.

by **MattyICE** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:05 am

Look at those heights rise at hour 114 over Nova Scotia. Another key trend to keep an eye on.

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:06 am

HOLY CRAP GFS DROPS IT 14 MB IN SIX HOURS!!!!!!

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:15 am

Ukie looks like a hit

by **sroc4** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:16 am

EVERYONE TAKE NOTICE: In addition to tempered enthusiasm and cautious optimism if the euro, or any other model for that matter, shows a huge hit please DO NOT post any snow maps in this thread at this time. Please refer to the banter thread with all snow maps until further notice. We will try and keep all superstitions in line for this one. No KOD’s in this thread.

Thank you,
Management geek

P.S. I’m being serious though. No snow maps

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:18 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Ukie looks like a hit

From Armando: "UKMET is a bomb"

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:19 am

sroc4 wrote:EVERYONE TAKE NOTICE: In addition to tempered enthusiasm and cautious optimism if the euro, or any other model for that matter, shows a huge hit please DO NOT post any snow maps in this thread at this time. Please refer to the banter thread with all snow maps until further notice. We will try and keep all superstitions in line for this one. No KOD’s in this thread.

Thank you,
Management

P.S. I’m being serious though. No snow maps

thank you!! I am very superstitious about things like this!! Did you catch any big fish...

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:21 am

sroc4 wrote:EVERYONE TAKE NOTICE: In addition to tempered enthusiasm and cautious optimism if the euro, or any other model for that matter, shows a huge hit please DO NOT post any snow maps in this thread at this time. Please refer to the banter thread with all snow maps until further notice. We will try and keep all superstitions in line for this one. No KOD’s in this thread.

Thank you,
Management

P.S. I’m being serious though. No snow maps

I am obsessed with this post. And 1,000% agree, FWIW. savior

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:21 am

rb924119 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Ukie looks like a hit

From Armando: "UKMET is a bomb"

Are u sure??? 12z UKIE is not out yet on my site.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:25 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Ukie looks like a hit

From Armando: "UKMET is a bomb"
Are u sure??? 12z UKIE is not out yet on my site.

I guess its legit. I'm hearing a sub 980 over the BM.

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:26 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Ukie looks like a hit

From Armando: "UKMET is a bomb"
Are u sure??? 12z UKIE is not out yet on my site.

.

Me either, but this is the best I could get from my source:

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 7 Img_1410

Apparently it's a BM track.

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:31 am

rb924119 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Ukie looks like a hit

From Armando: "UKMET is a bomb"
Are u sure??? 12z UKIE is not out yet on my site.
.

Me either, but this is the best I could get from my source:

Apparently it's a BM track.

I love the Ukie. Always have.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:33 am

sroc4 wrote:EVERYONE TAKE NOTICE: In addition to tempered enthusiasm and cautious optimism if the euro, or any other model for that matter, shows a huge hit please DO NOT post any snow maps in this thread at this time. Please refer to the banter thread with all snow maps until further notice. We will try and keep all superstitions in line for this one. No KOD’s in this thread.

Thank you,
Management

P.S. I’m being serious though. No snow maps

Can I also add one addendum to this.

No declarations of how Red Sox Suck or the Cape is gonna get buried before a flake even falls, allusions to 100 mph winds which never happen, or any other such imaginary images brought on by the operational run of any major model. Many here have ODS (Operational Delusional Syndrome, as a side not I was cured of this same malady several years ago) and their ODS posts should be limited to banter only.

Maybe we should even have an "EXTREME BANTER" thread for said individuals.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:33 am

rb924119 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Ukie looks like a hit

From Armando: "UKMET is a bomb"
Are u sure??? 12z UKIE is not out yet on my site.
.

Me either, but this is the best I could get from my source:

Apparently it's a BM track.

I'm getting my sources from the American WX site. They are saying its a big hit.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:44 am

CMC is stuck at hr 30.

by **sroc4** Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:45 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
sroc4 wrote:EVERYONE TAKE NOTICE: In addition to tempered enthusiasm and cautious optimism if the euro, or any other model for that matter, shows a huge hit please DO NOT post any snow maps in this thread at this time. Please refer to the banter thread with all snow maps until further notice. We will try and keep all superstitions in line for this one. No KOD’s in this thread.

Thank you,
Management

P.S. I’m being serious though. No snow maps

Can I also add one addendum to this.

No declarations of how Red Sox Suck or the Cape is gonna get buried before a flake even falls, allusions to 100 mph winds which never happen, or any other such imaginary images brought on by the operational run of any major model. Many here have ODS (Operational Delusional Syndrome, as a side not I was cured of this same malady several years ago) and their ODS posts should be limited to banter only.

Maybe we should even have an "EXTREME BANTER" thread for said individuals.

Lol. Noted

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