Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[nutleyblizzard]

CMC is stuck at hr 30.

[sroc4]

EVERYONE TAKE NOTICE:  In addition to tempered enthusiasm and cautious optimism if the euro, or any other model for that matter, shows a huge hit  please DO NOT post any snow maps in this thread at this time. Please refer to the banter thread with all snow maps until further notice. We will try and keep all superstitions in line for this one. No KOD’s in this thread.

Thank you,
Management

P.S.  I’m being serious though. No snow maps

Can I also add one addendum to this.

No declarations of how Red Sox Suck or the Cape is gonna get buried before a flake even falls, allusions to 100 mph winds which never happen, or any other such imaginary images brought on by the operational run of any major model. Many here have ODS (Operational Delusional Syndrome, as a side not I was cured of this same malady several years ago) and their ODS posts should be limited to banter only.

Maybe we should even have an "EXTREME BANTER" thread for said individuals.

Lol. Noted

[skinsfan1177]

Ukie is a capture a he's look

[rb924119]

We have hour 138 now and all I can tell is it's way more amped than 00z aha other than that hard to say much of anything. Looks like about the same placement, though.

[rb924119]

Ukie is a capture a he's look

OH. MY. GOD.

[Guest]

I FOR ONE DO NOT WANT OR LIKE THESE HUGE SHIFTS WEST IN THE MODELS STILL 5 DAYS OUT. IF THERE ARE ANY MORE TRENDS WHEN IT LOOKS THIS GOOD IT CAN ONLY BE BAD. GIVE ME SLOW BUT STEADY INCREMENTAL STEPS WEST NOT HUGE 300+ MILE JUMPS

[skinsfan1177]

I FOR ONE DO NOT WANT OR LIKE THESE HUGE SHIFTS WEST IN THE MODELS STILL 5 DAYS OUT.  IF THERE ARE ANY MORE TRENDS WHEN IT LOOKS THIS GOOD IT CAN ONLY BE BAD.  GIVE ME SLOW BUT STEADY INCREMENTAL STEPS WEST NOT HUGE 300+ MILE JUMPS

Their is baby steps being made on GFS

[rb924119]

That run likely closed H5 off over or near the Delmarva, which is almost as ideal as it gets for us.

[frank 638]

Of course things are going to change but when do think the weather models will come to agreement and say we are going to have a snow storm on Thursday

[billg315]

To reiterate the comments of many this past week. The trends look great, but there is no need for anticipation until we see a snowstorm modeled on the Monday night model runs.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Of course things are going to change but when do think the weather models will come to agreement and say we are going to have a snow storm on Thursday

Thoughts like this should never be uttered 6 days out. At this stage those thoughts are to be kept in the darkest recesses of your mind. If you must, post them on the "EXTREME WEATHER BANTER THREAD"

[skinsfan1177]

I'm posting models and anylysis.

GEFS WOW

[amugs]

HOLY CRAP this is a beautiful ens EVOLUTION: COMPLIMENTS OF WEATHERGUN

[amugs]

Good look at this range from Superstorm:

[jmanley32]

The gfs operational is a shift east from 06 z nothing to worry bout right just windshield? Those sub 960 and even 950 gefs are insane I won't say anything but I can only imagine the conditions that would bring. Mugs I took back what I said at the 00z and rb I'm on board but a bit nervous lol

[jmanley32]

Good look at this range from Superstorm:

woweee. Should the nhc be on this one lol

[emokid51783]

Snow in the sky, coffee in hand, and models to track....can i ask for anything more..
.
But seriously, loving the hold on this round of models

[rb924119]

Good look at this range from Superstorm:

Get rid of those southern and eastern outliers and that cluster is inside the BM by my eye. CMC also way more amped and west versus 00z, though still not as far west as the UK. However, looking at the thickness gradients it can't be missing by much. Waiting on H5 maps.

[amugs]

The gfs operational is a shift east from 06 z nothing to worry bout right just windshield? Those sub 960 and even 950 gefs are insane I won't say anything but I can only imagine the conditions that would bring. Mugs I took back what I said at the 00z and rb I'm on board but a bit nervous lol

ENS are west of it OP so don't pay attention to these except for eye candy.
ENS are what to view again for this.
SYO its 120 hours out. By Monday we get a full sample of the energy pieces.

[dsix85]

Emo Merry Christmas Brother!

I can't reiterate enough of what CP and the other experts have said. Yesterday, you were cliff jumpers and today most feel like they are walking on water. Let's not get too high on these runs, great improvements have been made but these are "models" and not "forecasts"..major differences between the two. Our energy behind this storm cannot be sampled truly until she comes onshore. Just sit back and relax, get the popcorn ready and enjoy the models.

[rb924119]

HUGE improvement at H5 on CMC

[skinsfan1177]

HUGE improvement at H5 on CMC

Cm seems late with a phase correct

[dsix85]

RB where does it close off?

[rb924119]

Skins, it's late for us, but compared to 00z it's a solid 12 hours earlier with the phase. It drsmmatically decreased the spacing between the two pieces of energy and goes for the triple phase. We get another jump of 12 hours earlier and we are right back to what the EURO showed a couple days ago, at least using this run as a reference verbatim. It was better than the GFS Op, which is why the precipitation made it to I-95. The trends are definitely in the right direction right now. And dare I say if the current progression holds, we could be back to seeing EURO-like solutions as early tonight. I'm expecting a big EURO run today, also, at least in the sense of continued favorable trends. We shall see.

Dsix, it closed off late, over Maine, BUT it never did at all on 00z run, so again, huge improvement. As stated above, another 12 hours earlier with the phase and we get blitzed.

[algae888]

Most of the ensemble members that are well East are weak. The closer to the coast Solutions are the really impressive ones we need that southern vort to be as amped up as possible if this is going to work for us

[rb924119]

Most of the ensemble members that are well East are weak. The closer to the coast Solutions are the really impressive ones we need that southern vort to be as amped up as possible if this is going to work for us

Agreed. Earlier phase too.

[rb924119]

For those wondering about the UKMET......total liquid equivalent precipitation......I think it would be safe to assume better than 10:1 too lmao

[Sponsored content]