Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Dec 30, 2017 4:44 pm

You can tell early on with the 18z GFS improvements are happening in the upper levels. Pac ULL is backing off which is leading to higher heights out west. Heights are also higher on the east coast as well.

by **Sanchize06** Sat Dec 30, 2017 4:46 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:You can tell early on with the 18z GFS improvements are happening in the upper levels. Pac ULL is backing off which is leading to higher heights out west. Heights are also higher on the east coast as well.

Yeah, looks good so far

by **Sanchize06** Sat Dec 30, 2017 4:58 pm

Looking at 500mb maps through hr 90, this run should be slightly west of 12z

by **Sanchize06** Sat Dec 30, 2017 5:02 pm

NW at hour 102 with the trough digging a little more and further west, definitely should be a better run

by **Sanchize06** Sat Dec 30, 2017 5:07 pm

Not a bad run for LI, snow reaches NYC and Jersey Shore. Keeps the good trend going of less influence of the ULL in the Pacific on the ridge out west, trough digging deeper and further west and the trend at the surface as it came west of 12z by a bit

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Dec 30, 2017 5:07 pm

Looks west of 12z to me Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 11 Gfs_ms11

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 30, 2017 5:26 pm

It is a good 100 mile jog west if u let it get a bit further north next frame. Good trend. Hoping we can get it to bomb south of us.

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 30, 2017 5:30 pm

That's like holding a carrot in front the rabbit if we get that center into the bm it will be a storm to top storms look at those pressures something usually only seen in tropucs.

by **lglickman1** Sat Dec 30, 2017 5:44 pm

As much as I want this to happen something tells me it will just be a tease for the next 5 days, but one can always hope

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Dec 30, 2017 5:49 pm

lglickman1 wrote:As much as I want this to happen something tells me it will just be a tease for the next 5 days, but one can always hope

It could very well be a tease but trends are better until I see it get worse then ill worry

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 30, 2017 5:51 pm

I will not be here for 00z runs tonight but they are critical. We need to see these trends west continue. Not come to a halt or regress.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Dec 30, 2017 5:53 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I will not be here for 00z runs tonight but they are critical. We need to see these trends west continue. Not come to a halt or regress.

Agreed

by **MattyICE** Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:00 pm

I think one trend we have to start looking for is to get the LP to form closer to the FLA/GA coastline. With some of these LP’s popping further out in the Bahamas the only hope is a capture the sort of sling shots the LP back some. That sort of set up can benefit New England with big snows but will be much tougher to get major or even significant amounts anywhere S/W of NYC-ish. I know it CAN include everyone in this type of setup...but it’s a lot more complex.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:01 pm

18z GEFS...another tick west

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 11 5a4819ff2e650

by Guest Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:09 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I will not be here for 00z runs tonight but they are critical. We need to see these trends west continue. Not come to a halt or regress.

Frank the storm still being about 5 days out isn’t there PLENTY of time for this to trend OTS then back west in the last 48 hours? Why would the trend halting tonight so far out be worrisome when the energies haven’t even been properly sampled yet?

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:12 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I will not be here for 00z runs tonight but they are critical. We need to see these trends west continue. Not come to a halt or regress.

Frank the storm still being about 5 days out isn’t there PLENTY of time for this to trend OTS then back west in the last 48 hours? Why would the trend halting tonight so far out be worrisome when the energies haven’t even been properly sampled yet?

The set-up is as delicate as I've ever seen. The low is forming basically off the coast and it has to hook back west when it's captured. Most of our Miller A's form in the Gulf Coast then come up the east coast. This one is cutting it very close so I would prefer the west trend continue. If it does not we're going to lose the storm.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:15 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I will not be here for 00z runs tonight but they are critical. We need to see these trends west continue. Not come to a halt or regress.

Frank the storm still being about 5 days out isn’t there PLENTY of time for this to trend OTS then back west in the last 48 hours? Why would the trend halting tonight so far out be worrisome when the energies haven’t even been properly sampled yet?

The set-up is as delicate as I've ever seen. The low is forming basically off the coast and it has to hook back west when it's captured. Most of our Miller A's form in the Gulf Coast then come up the east coast. This one is cutting it very close so I would prefer the west trend continue. If it does not we're going to lose the storm.

Frank this is all or nothing correct?

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:18 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I will not be here for 00z runs tonight but they are critical. We need to see these trends west continue. Not come to a halt or regress.

Frank the storm still being about 5 days out isn’t there PLENTY of time for this to trend OTS then back west in the last 48 hours? Why would the trend halting tonight so far out be worrisome when the energies haven’t even been properly sampled yet?

The set-up is as delicate as I've ever seen. The low is forming basically off the coast and it has to hook back west when it's captured. Most of our Miller A's form in the Gulf Coast then come up the east coast. This one is cutting it very close so I would prefer the west trend continue. If it does not we're going to lose the storm.

Oy, even more nail biting to know we can't have any east wiggles, yikes!

by **Sanchize06** Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:19 pm

18z GEFS actually appear to the east of 12z

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 11 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_21

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 11 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_22

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:26 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:18z GEFS actually appear to the east of 12z

nooooooo!!!!! lol

by **Sanchize06** Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:32 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:18z GEFS actually appear to the east of 12z

nooooooo!!!!! lol

Haha we'll have to see what 0z brings

by Guest Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:40 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I will not be here for 00z runs tonight but they are critical. We need to see these trends west continue. Not come to a halt or regress.

Frank the storm still being about 5 days out isn’t there PLENTY of time for this to trend OTS then back west in the last 48 hours? Why would the trend halting tonight so far out be worrisome when the energies haven’t even been properly sampled yet?

The set-up is as delicate as I've ever seen. The low is forming basically off the coast and it has to hook back west when it's captured. Most of our Miller A's form in the Gulf Coast then come up the east coast. This one is cutting it very close so I would prefer the west trend continue. If it does not we're going to lose the storm.

Ok. Thanks. Not what I wanted to hear though. Not liking having to hope for no east trends over 3 full days of model runs Shocked

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:41 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:18z GEFS actually appear to the east of 12z

nooooooo!!!!! lol

Haha we'll have to see what 0z brings

I don't think they are. Maybe the mean shifted east but that maybe from the 2 lows

by **jimv45** Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:42 pm

Hope is there but this will not pull me back again west east enough let's get a good storm and chat going.

by **mikeypizano** Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:43 pm

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 11 Screen11

Wow talk about hype...

by **Scullybutcher** Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:45 pm

mikeypizano wrote:

Wow talk about hype...

Because if he’s right once, he gets to show the world how smart he is

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:47 pm

The mean pressures might have shifted east, but H5 was certainly better than 12z. Interaction over the interior southeast versus off/along the coast. BIG implications.

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