Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:17 pm

Yup, early signs of phasing at 96!!!! Here we go nowwwwww

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:18 pm

Compared to 00z EURO through hour 105, the northern energy is stronger (likely as a result of a quicker entrance of the upper level jet) and the PNA ridge is much improved.

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:19 pm

God I love this lol

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:19 pm

Storm forming

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by **rb924119** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:21 pm

You have a zoomed out look too?? Look at where those isobars are pointing...due north. Great sign!!!

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:22 pm

Rb is it safe to say since I'm seeing temps bear single digits Thurs Fri that this could be 20:1 or higher even?

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:22 pm

If the phase was 6 hours fast it would have been an all-out Roidzilla for us. Big it JUST missed. A pubic hair away. Great trend, though.

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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 10 5a47d95749869

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:24 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:If the phase was 6 hours fast it would have been an all-out Roidzilla for us. Big it JUST missed. A pubic hair away. Great trend, though.

nice well this will def keep us on our toes next several days.

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:24 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Rb is it safe to say since I'm seeing temps bear single digits Thurs Fri that this could be 20:1 or higher even?

Surface temps have no bearing on ratios. You want to look at thicknesses and the average temperatures where the best vertical motion is occurring. That will tell you what the ratios will be. While it's much too early, I'd assume better than 10:1 would be likely AS OF RIGHT NOW. As to how much better, no idea yet. Way too fine of a detail right now.

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:25 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Rb is it safe to say since I'm seeing temps bear single digits Thurs Fri that this could be 20:1 or higher even?

Surface temps have no bearing on ratios. You want to look at thicknesses and the average temperatures where the best vertical motion is occurring. That will tell you what the ratios will be. While it's much too early, I'd assume better than 10:1 would be likely AS OF RIGHT NOW. As to how much better, no idea yet. Way too fine of a detail right now.

ok gotcha

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:28 pm

The EURO run was close enough that it has me excited. Especially when you consider the trends other models are showing (GFS, GEFS, UKIE). We were not far from a Madonne-worthy solution. Future runs we want to see the northern vort separated from the TPV a little more so it has ample space to phase into the southern branch. Let's also keep trending the PNA in a positive direction. The stronger that ULL is in the PAC the better our ridge which means everything downstream falls into place. Great spot to be in at this time.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:30 pm

24 hour trend maps on the EURO show why this run was improved. All that blue is indicative of better phasing with all our critical branches of energy.

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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 10 5a47da512eda7_ScreenShot2017-12-30at1_26_07PM.png.16d4b5e9388ad6c02d4c9bb40a787c93

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:33 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:24 hour trend maps on the EURO show why this run was improved. All that blue is indicative of better phasing with all our critical branches of energy.

The increase strength of the 50-50 low and upstream ridge amplification as a result of it are good too.

by **hyde345** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:43 pm

Thanks for the play by play Frank. I really thought the surface low was going to be farther west but still big improvements.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:56 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Rb is it safe to say since I'm seeing temps bear single digits Thurs Fri that this could be 20:1 or higher even?

Surface temps have no bearing on ratios. You want to look at thicknesses and the average temperatures where the best vertical motion is occurring. That will tell you what the ratios will be. While it's much too early, I'd assume better than 10:1 would be likely AS OF RIGHT NOW. As to how much better, no idea yet. Way too fine of a detail right now.

They do have a bearing but not as much as most people think.

by **amugs** Sat Dec 30, 2017 2:06 pm

PAC cleaned its act up and 50/50 low and a HP NE of Newfoundland are giving us teh upstream effects. PNA much cleaner and rises into BC love this look at this stage.

A pure Miller A - they have a tendency for room to come west.
If we get a stronger 50/50 then it will slow this up.

A hair from Doc's head away from an absolute crusher.
Oh and it absolutely bombs in the Gulf of Maine to 950's - that would cause a massive wave break in the NA and pull down extremely cold air behind it - yeah like Minus cold air.
Okay off to teh store and a holiday gathering.

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 30, 2017 2:30 pm

Can we get it to bomb out that low before it gets that far north? Or is that asking too much? I see ur scroll frank is Godzilla the ceiling of possibility or could this be higher if trends continue even better? And yes I understand it's not a forecast.

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 30, 2017 2:34 pm

Euro Ensembles show love for LI, at least.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 30, 2017 2:35 pm

Euro Ensembles! West of the OP

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by Guest Sat Dec 30, 2017 2:35 pm

You idiots (just kidding) make it hard to not get excited. I keep telling myself I’m not going to check in for 24 hours and it lasts all of 2 hours. nooooo

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 30, 2017 2:38 pm

I'm mobile can't post it but euro ensembles mean giggity!

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 30, 2017 2:38 pm

Damnit you guys are too fast for me.

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 30, 2017 2:39 pm

syosnow94 wrote:You idiots (just kidding) make it hard to not get excited. I keep telling myself I’m not going to check in for 24 hours and it lasts all of 2 hours.

Only one cure for that, my friend....... DRINK HEAVILY lmaooooo

by **Math23x7** Sat Dec 30, 2017 2:46 pm

The 12Z ECMWF was close to a Godzilla for Beantown. Of course it's five days out. As we have seen many times over the years, the best storms are usually those which were not shown to strike us on the models until it entered the short range. But it's still not a guarantee at this juncture.

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 30, 2017 2:59 pm

Man I wish I could have a drink with you guys but am on antibiotics for nasty case bronchitis and won't b done till sat morning.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Dec 30, 2017 4:44 pm

You can tell early on with the 18z GFS improvements are happening in the upper levels. Pac ULL is backing off which is leading to higher heights out west. Heights are also higher on the east coast as well.

by **Sanchize06** Sat Dec 30, 2017 4:46 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:You can tell early on with the 18z GFS improvements are happening in the upper levels. Pac ULL is backing off which is leading to higher heights out west. Heights are also higher on the east coast as well.

Yeah, looks good so far

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