Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[Snow88]

AO is forecasted to crash in the 1st week of February

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

PNA is also rising
NAO is dropping towards neutral

[Snow88]

GFS is looking good starting Super Bowl Weekend



Nice PNA ridge

[Guest]

The GEFS and other models do not look thrilled for a snowy pattern anytime soon. We're likely to see more cold than mild days once we get passed tomorrow's rainstorm, however, it looks set-up to be a cutter pattern followed by cold behind it. +AO/+NAO/-EPO would keep the main trough axis confined to the west-central U.S.

UGH!!!  I can deal with a couple of weeks of a January thaw.  But what you just posted is THE ABSOLUTE WORST CASE SCENARIO POST FOR A SNOW LOVER.  Go back to not posting.  Sheesh

Frank has been a busy man. “Any time soon” can mean a lot of things. LR between 1st-5th/7th will begin the step down to what we are looking for. It right there here in the ensembles. The strat is cooperating. There is no reason to panic with a single Frank post.

No panic here. I fully expect a good Feb thru Mid March. Just hate cold then cutters more than I hate 55 degree winter days that’s all.

[Snow88]

GFS has a snowstorm the northeast on the 5th

What a pattern depicted by the GFS

Long ways out though

[Math23x7]

The mean track of the MJO on both the GEFS and EPS takes it to Phase 7 15 days from now, then has it staying there for a bit. Phases 8, 1, 2, and 3 are the ideal Phases for cold/snowy conditions in February. When and if it cross into Phase 8, I don't think it will come right away. IMO, around President's Day, we will see conditions favorable for snow return.

[Math23x7]

.....in the meantime, hr 240 of the 12Z EURO has 500 mb heights exceeding 576 dm across the tri-state area and exceeding 582 dm in the Hampton, such heights being more typical of a summertime airmass:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=eus&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018012212&fh=240

[Guest]

.....in the meantime, hr 240 of the 12Z EURO has 500 mb heights exceeding 576 dm across the tri-state area and exceeding 582 dm in the Hampton, such heights being more typical of a summertime airmass:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=eus&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018012212&fh=240

Thanks for pointing that out Mikey!

[sroc4]

.....in the meantime, hr 240 of the 12Z EURO has 500 mb heights exceeding 576 dm across the tri-state area and exceeding 582 dm in the Hampton, such heights being more typical of a summertime airmass:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=eus&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018012212&fh=240

Just curious.  What are your thoughts on if you think this will actually happen verbatim seeing that its hr 240 on an operational model.  I feel like last time you posted about the euro operational 10 days out showing a strong ridge and upper 50's low 60's in our area the final result was a trough in the east and 30's with snow for parts of the area.  Here was that last time from Dec 17th.  Ironically there were 576dm-588dm heights being depicted then too across the area yet this is what the final soln looked like:




by Math23x7 on Sun Dec 17, 2017 2:48 pm

Whenever models show a Godzilla a week out, members on this forum will post it get excited about it.

Why isn't anyone posting models today?

Answer:  Because it doesn't show them what they want.  

Let's take a look at the 12Z EURO valid for 7 AM Christmas Day:

500mb anomaly:



Surface Pressure Normalized Anomaly:



850 temp anomaly:



Morning Low temperatures on X-mas:



Afternoon High temperatures on X-mas:



The average high/low temp on Christmas in NYC is 40/29.  This shows a low of 45 and a high of 62, just a few degrees shy of the record set in 2015.  And this would be the fourth straight year in which the high reached 50 degrees.

[Frank_Wx]

240+ hour maps, unless it's in good humor or trying to prove a point, should be kept in the banter thread.

[sroc4]

Now despite the post above I actually do think that there will be ridging into the area around this time frame, but it likely is the beginning of the end, and no way do I think we have to wait until presidents day for snow and more of a sustained cold. Ill explain why tomorrow

[sroc4]

Ensembles are really starting to look phenomenal from Feb 3rd-5th and beyond

[rb924119]

To Math's points, models usually ARE too quick in their advertisement of TRUE pattern changes. We have seen this pretty much every time a pattern change, whether warm or cold, is advertised. This is why I continue to think it ends up being during the 7th-10th; it lines up much better with forcing mechanisms in both the Troposphere and Stratosphere. However, Mike, if you look closely at the temperature composites of Phase 7 of the MJO versus 6 and 8 CENTERED ON FEBRUARY, you'll notice that it (Phase 7) is MUCH COOLER than Phase 6 BUT still MUCH WARMER than Phase 8. This suggests to ME that Phase 7 itself is a transitional phase for North America, where when the MJO first enters the phase, our pattern still reflects that of a 6; warmth. However, as it continues in Phase 7 toward, BUT NOT NECESSARILY into Phase 8, the Rossby wave train begins to shift into a pattern that supports more cold than warmth such that ONCE THE MJO ENTERE PHASE 8 that pattern locks in, assuming other forcing mechanisms support a similar outcome. So in short, Phase 7 by my thinking, is a transition phase where we will start warm but end cold, as the step down process occurs throughout the rotation through the phase.

[sroc4]

To Math's points, models usually ARE too quick in their advertisement of TRUE pattern changes. We have seen this pretty much every time a pattern change, whether warm or cold, is advertised. This is why I continue to think it ends up being during the 7th-10th; it lines up much better with forcing mechanisms in both the Troposphere and Stratosphere. However, Mike, if you look closely at the temperature composites of Phase 7 of the MJO versus 6 and 8 CENTERED ON FEBRUARY, you'll notice that it (Phase 7) is MUCH COOLER  than Phase 6 BUT still MUCH WARMER than Phase 8. This suggests to ME that Phase 7 itself is a transitional phase for North America, where when the MJO first enters the phase, our pattern still reflects that of a 6; warmth. However, as it continues in Phase 7 toward, BUT NOT NECESSARILY into Phase 8, the Rossby wave train begins to shift into a pattern that supports more cold than warmth such that ONCE THE MJO ENTERE PHASE 8 that pattern locks in, assuming other forcing mechanisms support a similar outcome. So in short, Phase 7 by my thinking, is a transition phase where we will start warm but end cold, as the step down process occurs throughout the rotation through the phase.

Start looking at the Strat data. Its looking more and more likely the wave 1 attack is pretty robust. Ensembles are already showing the results of this. Im thinking the MJO forcings may give way to the strat influence. I will say for now 3-5th is when we see the pattern changing and by 5th-10th we have our first snow storm.

[rb924119]

Hey Scott, are we REALLY gonna bicker over two to four days at three weeks out? Lmfaooooo anyway, I haven't looked at the actual WAF but I have known/felt that the Wave 1 attack was going to be pretty strong based on how and where the ridging was progged to set up starting about a week ago now. The issue for me is that the MJO *at amplitude* combined with the strong burst of +SOI is going to override the -AO. However, I think that -AO will be the mechanism by which we see our transient shots of cold and opportunities for short waves to break off of the main trough as they propagate and undercut the broad North American ridging in the East. It's not until we see the MJO rotate through 6 and into 7 where I think we will start to see some of the positive interference occur. But until we see the SOI start tanking against the recent stretch of positives, I think the Strat influence will only lead to the start of the transition.

[sroc4]

Hey Scott, are we REALLY gonna bicker over two to four days at three weeks out? Lmfaooooo anyway, I haven't looked at the actual WAF but I have known/felt that the Wave 1 attack was going to be pretty strong based on how and where the ridging was progged to set up starting about a week ago now. The issue for me is that the MJO *at amplitude* combined with the strong burst of +SOI is going to override the -AO. However, I think that -AO will be the mechanism by which we see our transient shots of cold and opportunities for short waves to break off of the main trough as they propagate and undercut the broad North American ridging in the East. It's not until we see the MJO rotate through 6 and into 7 where I think we will start to see some of the positive interference occur. But until we see the SOI start tanking against the recent stretch of positives, I think the Strat influence will only lead to the start of the transition.

LOL...I certainly wasnt bickering.  Anyway fair enough.  The MJO def has amplitude and has been one of the most consistently robust impulses this season.  It will be interesting to see how it unfolds as we approach the end of the month.  Next wave flux coming with legit warming at 10mb:

[rb924119]

Hahaha I know, I'm just busting your chops, buddy. In looking at those graphics, thank you for posting them, by the way, I take away two very important things. 1) the progged change in the Stratosphere is going to bring it to the same levels we saw it reach in early December, and 2) we are about to have back-to-back Wave-1 attacks that are STRONG. That's going to go a LONG way in assisting the process of getting very cold air ready and available to spill into the CONUS. Once we get some of the other factors, I think the whole thing collapses and we get stuck in the proverbial freezer. If we can get a third follow-up Wave-1 attack, I think it's all but over and we rock right through the end of March. Why? Because even if the Stratosphere begins to recover in February, we are having a period of approximately 20 consecutive days with a severely perturbed Stratospheric PV as it is. Since the effects of that take approximately three weeks to propagate down into the Troposphere and impact our actual pattern, that will almost precisely line up with the favorable changes in some of our other Tropospheric forcing mechanisms. Being the case, that will likely lock us into another cold to severely cold three-week period right there, which takes us to the end of February/beginning of March assuming our predictions of the change are relatively accurate.

If we then manage a third Stratospheric attack to follow the one that is coming, that will allow most of the auspicious pattern to remain intact, at least at that level. The wildcards then become the MJO and SOI. As it is, the MJO usually takes about five to seven days to rotate through a single phase, so assuming even the minimum of five days we would have almost four weeks of favorable MJO forcing IF it can maintain amplitude. Similarly, that should also maintain a -SOI for the same amount of time. However, even if the MJO crashes into the Null Phase, that doesn't necessarily mean that the SOI will follow, and it is THIS that we may have to rely on once the MJO runs its course toward the end of February. Right now, given the SST anomalies, a continued -SOI would NOT be favored, BUT if we can manage enough of a westerly burst to begin suppressing our already declining La Niña base state and SST configuration, bring warmer water toward the eastern Pacific and warming those 1.2 waters, this will allow time-mean SOI to stay in relatively neutral territory. IF that occurs, then the Stratosphere, especially IF we get a third Wave-1 attack, can rule the table and sustain our winter through much, if not all of March. A LOT of "if's" once we get into the end of February/beginning of March, but until then I think we are looking VERY GOOD once we transition at some point during the first week of February, or shortly thereafter.

Now, IF the MJO DOES NOT end up in the Null Phase, then we have a battle royale between what the SOI might do (personally, I can see it remaining generally neutral after this MJO rotation, especially if the MJO remains at such a strong amplitude. That's going to be a heck of a sustained westerly burst, and with an already declining La Niña base state, could end up almost finishing it off.), the MJO continuing its rotation, and the Stratosphere (assuming the third attack occurs). The positive is that once we get to March, we don't have to worry about MJO-induced warmth UNTIL PHASE 6, which buys us another two to three weeks of auspicious tropical forcing. Even if the SOI were to bounce back positive, the MJO would offset if it has magnitude and again likely lead to the Stratosphere ruling the table if a third attack occurs. Obviously, if the Stratosphere doesn't have a third attack, then we must rely on the MJO and SOI alone to govern the pattern.

Why do I bring all of this up? Simply to advise the options that we have going forward as to the extent to which our pattern change back to cold and potentially stormy (depending on how cold it can actually get). WHAT DO I THINK? I think the following:

1. We DO NOT see a crash of the MJO into the Null Phase at any point, though some weakening is expected. Why do I think this? Based on what we have seen already this season, the MJO did not entirely crash into the Null Phase the last time it rotated around, though it did lose substantial amplitude as it came into Phase 8 and 1. However, it began a resurgence as it entered Phase 2 and beyond. Admittedly, while previous tendencies do not necessarily correlate to future conditions, I believe that weather does have tendencies that become established, and I think we will again see the MJO lose amplitude as it rotates through Phase 8 and 1 (not like that will be difficult based on its currently progged strength in Phase 7), but begin regaining strength as it comes through Phase 2 and beyond. Given that Phases 3, 4 (to a degree), and 5 all support general troughing over the eastern CONUS, this will support continued time-mean troughing and cold weather across the eastern CONUS.

2. The SOI will average near neutral, maybe slightly positive. This will attempt to inject warmth/ridging into the eastern North American pattern, but based on what I think the MJO will do, should be overridden by the MJO and its forcing and be a non-factor. However, once we see the MJO begin to rotate into Phase 5 into Weeks 2-3 of March, our pattern will start becoming transient.

3. We WILL see a follow-up Wave-1 attack on the Stratosphere. Why? In looking at the ensembles, there is continued support for strong ridging in the favored regions for Stratospheric perturbation, mainly in the north-central Pacific, through approximately the next 10-12 days. This will continue to attack the Stratosphere from the bottom up, as the wave and heat flux continue to propagate vertically from the Troposphere into the Stratosphere. This continues the perturbation and drastically weaken the Stratospheric circulation. Again, because these effects take approximately three weeks to effect the Troposphere, the effects of this third attack will begin approximately Week 3, almost Week 4 of February, and persist through approximately Week 2 of March. This favors time-mean troughing and cold weather in the eastern CONUS from our upcoming pattern change in Week one of February through approximately mid-March.

Combining (1) and (2), we will very likely be locked into a true winter-type pattern with time-mean troughing and colder than normal weather from Week 1 of February through Week 2 of March, with the step-down process beginning Week 3 into Week 4 of March.

[amugs]

Hammer time!!
Epo going N about 2/2 for Phil.
WPO remains N which builds the arctigedon part deuce in Canada
It won't take 4-5 days like in th early winter to let the floodgates open and build cold, it is already built.
Students. a trough over Hawaii and a Ridge in the WC and the floodgates have opened with a cross olpolar floe to a certain extent by the map.
Start end maps are showing the goods swinging in by the second week where it can get vodka old as they say in Rooshka thereaftet.
Get through these nex,t 10 days and we start to dance shortly after.
Mikey gonna be a fun time after this spell of warmth.

[sroc4]

Absolutely phenominal stuff Ray.

[Dunnzoo]

I just want to make my flight to Florida on March 4th! But looking forward to what we can get the next 2 months...

[rb924119]

Thank you, Scott. I try to pull something out every once in a while that tests my longer range abilities lmao it may not be right, but at least it sounded cool AhahAha tried taking a walk in Tom's shoes for a bit, but let's be honest; that's like trying to follow in the footsteps of God Himself, and well, there's still only Him ahahaha anyway, I just saw the EURO weeklies, and while I have openly (and continue to openly) expressed my large degree of hesitation with them; IF correct to a reasonable degree, they would more than verify my prediction of an incredibly auspicious pattern through at least Week 2 of March once we flip. H5 from weeks 2.5-6 were probably the best I've ever personally seen on them. Of course the temperatures were modeled way too warm given the H5 prognostication, but seeing as though the fact that it is even seeing anomalies below -2C beyond Week 3 is phenomenal in its own right and will continue to correct colder given the forcing mechanisms and evolution of them in play. As Meatloaf once sang, I'm "All revved up with no place to go" after seeing those Weeklies. DANG.

[rb924119]

It would also seem that Armando is feeling very similarly to me at this point about the whole evolution, which gives me hope my ideas may at least some degree of merit. However, Mother Nature ultimately deals the cards in this game lmao

[amugs]

EPS BOYYAHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!

FEB 3rd drops the rock baby,



GEFS not far behind - keep correcting


Models will kep corecting on tis and shorten up the time frame.
Can we get a SW (Snowstorm ) to kick this period off that rb did a phenomenal write up on above? A Super bowl sunday snowstorm into Monday Tri Fecta??

[Frank_Wx]

This is one heck of an active tropical wave. Return of winter could come in fast and furious if this ends up holding true. My initial thoughts on February are we will head back into a pattern similar to what we saw mid-December through early January. Very cold temps at time with minor to moderate snow events. I would like to see us get the area-wide Godzilla (we came close last time), but it appears all the blocking is on the Pacific this year yet again. We'll see, but FEB most likely is going to be an active winter month.

[Guest]

This is one heck of an active tropical wave. Return of winter could come in fast and furious if this ends up holding true. My initial thoughts on February are we will head back into a pattern similar to what we saw mid-December through early January. Very cold temps at time with minor to moderate snow events. I would like to see us get the area-wide Godzilla (we came close last time), but it appears all the blocking is on the Pacific this year yet again. We'll see, but FEB most likely is going to be an active winter month.

Now THAT is a Frank post. Bout time

[Snow88]

Models are starting to show the 29-30th storm again, especially for the interior. CMC and Icon are forming another wave after the rainstorm.

They develop a coastal

[GreyBeard]

Thanks rb,sroc,mugs and Frank for your thoughts and analysis. Looks like all signs are pointing to a return to winter in early Feb.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Models are starting to show the 29-30th storm again, especially for the interior. CMC and Icon are forming another wave after the rainstorm.

They develop a coastal

There is always some kind of optimism in a snow88 post. A 180° difference from the typical math 23×7 post. Personally I'd rather see a last post by snow88, Mikey has gone way too dark.

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