Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[rb924119]

Oh yeah, Scott, definitely agree with a sneaky threat or two.....or three lol with such a strongly negative AO and an overall progressive pattern, it will not take much for one of these spokes rotating in through the main trough in the west to actually cut beneath and/or behind western Atlantic/North American ridging. If you're looking for ways it can snow in an overall ugly pattern, that's how. It won't last long, but it would be something. Plus, in this type of setup, progressiveness will limit the extent to which we get above normal; though by the same token will also limit how cool we can get with any quick shots from those sneaky short waves.

[sroc4]

Here is what I'm talking about for the end of the month on the ensembles.  What seems to be consistent on both GEFS and EPS is the development of a strong -WPO blocking ridge by day 7 +/- a day or two.  This will likely have down stream effects on the 500mb pattern that this far out the will likely be hidden in the means.   What I mean by this is that recall the ensemble mean 500mb charts are a smoothed out average of all its individual members.  The actual soln is hidden among the mean, but because there is still such a wide spread of solns within all the individual members of an ensemble mean forecast that far out in time, the result of what your looking at now in the 7-10day and beyond could be off by a significant margin from the end soln.  The mean forecast on an ensemble ends up correcting as we get closer in time and more and more individual members start converging/correcting towards the actual soln.  

Again with a strong -WPO by day 7 or so AND a -AO,  2-3days later we may see a piece of energy release from the west coast as hopefully a transient ridge in the PNA and/or EPO region occurs in response to the -WPO/-AO block.  IF this happens the "possibility" of a Canadian HP dropping far enough south such that this energy comes underneath towards the EC having a cold air source to tap into.  Remember this is a long way off in a pattern that is not overtly conducive to a storm, but there are ways for it to happen.  This has been proven over the last two winters.  It would have to be the preverbal the pieces have to come together "just right" scenario so for now odds are certainly against this from happening, BUT....for now at least its something to monitor.  Update on the evolution of the ensemble forecast in a few days.  

GEFS:





EPS:

[sroc4]

Oh yeah, Scott, definitely agree with a sneaky threat or two.....or three lol with such a strongly negative AO and an overall progressive pattern, it will not take much for one of these spokes rotating in through the main trough in the west to actually cut beneath and/or behind western Atlantic/North American ridging. If you're looking for ways it can snow in an overall ugly pattern, that's how. It won't last long, but it would be something. Plus, in this type of setup, progressiveness will limit the extent to which we get above normal; though by the same token will also limit how cool we can get with any quick shots from those sneaky short waves.

Whats the saying??? Great minds......

[amugs]

THE N WPO and BIG Time at that will do one thing for sure - OH CANADA - will be frozen and this cold air will be waiting to enter into the US.
OP's Scott will do poop with this progressive set up to find a storm that can undercut and gives us white gold in such a pattern.
Is it going to be 60* warm - I am not seeing such, a few days we hit 50, all depends on where you live in this area in this vast area of members on tis board. I am thinking that by the first week of Feb we reload the pattern. The N WPO usually helps pump the EPO and tehre are signs of wave breaks heading into that region in the time frame. Once it goes N the EPO then it wont take 5 -6 days to get cold here due to s cold Canada. The press will happen sooner like in 3 - I know what the difference well it can mean rain or white gold.

[Guest]

AREA WIDE FRANKZILLA INCOMMING FEBRUARY 14th PER SYS!!!

[amugs]

AREA WIDE FRANKZILLA INCOMMING FEBRUARY 14th PER SYS!!!

[sroc4]

hey

[mwilli5783]

frankzilla on v-day,good cause i'll be home cause ill be retired by then(1/26)

[docstox12]

frankzilla on v-day,good cause i'll be home cause ill be retired by then(1/26)

Happy Retirement!!! I hope you love it as much as I do. We should have a Retirement Club section on NJ Strong.One small little problem...now when a snowstorm is coming, you will be spending a LOT of time on this site,LOL.ENJOY!!!

[mwilli5783]

thanks doc..10 yrs with tgt..i can now spend more time here observing and reading comments on the weather

[sroc4]

Lets get back to the weather.  Here is the first sign of the pattern shifting back to more sustained cold.  Its long range so grain of salt for now but fits very nicely with the anticipated start to the sustained cold and snow chances.  You can see a trough showing up S of the Aleutian islands which lends itself to a ridge then a full lat trough over NA showing up in the means of the ens. If you look at the MSLP anomalies when you start to see the HP building in this configuration the cold is coming.  Verbatim the ridge axis is likely too far west for a snow storm for the east coast, but if I had to guess there would be a decent system develop from this look around the 4th-8th time frame that would prob cut but be the key to unlock the cold shortly after this from the 8th-12th time frame.  Images are saved so we can follow along with the evolution a we go along in time.  

Update on the 27th-30th time frame coming early this week.  

[rb924119]

I peeped the 27th-30th period of which you speak. It's certainly a close call, but I don't like the ridge configuration. We need the Pacific ridge to be stronger than the Atlantic ridge, and given the background of the NH pattern I don't see that happening.

[sroc4]

I peeped the 27th-30th period of which you speak. It's certainly a close call, but I don't like the ridge configuration. We need the Pacific ridge to be stronger than the Atlantic ridge, and given the background of the NH pattern I don't see that happening.

I hear ya. I said it before and I’ll reiterate it now. The odds and pattern def do not favor it. As of now it looks like the negatives crash the west coast of Canada right as the PNA ridge is maybe making a move and while our energy is releasing across the country. I’m not updating much because again we are still far enough out where the exact positions and timing of certain features still may be off due to the means so I need a few more days to see how it evolves and ensemble members tighten up. Again it’s at least a glimmer of something to track.

[sroc4]

For the record I am merely wishing upon a Star for a snow storm to happen in this time frame. I am NOT wish casting a storm. I want to be clear on that in case anyone was confused.

[Guest]

You my man are a chronic serial wishcaster

[Guest]

You my man are a chronic serial wishcaster

[Snow88]

I peeped the 27th-30th period of which you speak. It's certainly a close call, but I don't like the ridge configuration. We need the Pacific ridge to be stronger than the Atlantic ridge, and given the background of the NH pattern I don't see that happening.

It's close on the GFS

The wave keeps shifting east

Remember when this was a huge cutter ?

[amugs]

From Douglas Fresh 33&rain
250 looks.good delicate set up but may have a chance here as Tont Ronzoni has been tracking

EPO tanking as I was saying a few days ago with PAC wave breaks and an LP over N Hawaii that will help.pump this and the PNA ridge. This is around the 5th time frame that i have been taking about wr shift back to winter. It may also rise the heights over the top and connect the Atlantic if we're  lucky .

[Frank_Wx]

The GEFS and other models do not look thrilled for a snowy pattern anytime soon. We're likely to see more cold than mild days once we get passed tomorrow's rainstorm, however, it looks set-up to be a cutter pattern followed by cold behind it. +AO/+NAO/-EPO would keep the main trough axis confined to the west-central U.S.

[amugs]

Need some friendly WAR here if we want this puppy to come N



Timing is everything for this one

[amugs]

The GEFS and other models do not look thrilled for a snowy pattern anytime soon. We're likely to see more cold than mild days once we get passed tomorrow's rainstorm, however, it looks set-up to be a cutter pattern followed by cold behind it. +AO/+NAO/-EPO would keep the main trough axis confined to the west-central U.S.

True once we get past the end of the month into early Feb we'll see more action as the EPO will press and send SW after SW (short wave) down.

[Guest]

The GEFS and other models do not look thrilled for a snowy pattern anytime soon. We're likely to see more cold than mild days once we get passed tomorrow's rainstorm, however, it looks set-up to be a cutter pattern followed by cold behind it. +AO/+NAO/-EPO would keep the main trough axis confined to the west-central U.S.

UGH!!! I can deal with a couple of weeks of a January thaw. But what you just posted is THE ABSOLUTE WORST CASE SCENARIO POST FOR A SNOW LOVER. Go back to not posting. Sheesh

[sroc4]

The GEFS and other models do not look thrilled for a snowy pattern anytime soon. We're likely to see more cold than mild days once we get passed tomorrow's rainstorm, however, it looks set-up to be a cutter pattern followed by cold behind it. +AO/+NAO/-EPO would keep the main trough axis confined to the west-central U.S.

UGH!!!  I can deal with a couple of weeks of a January thaw.  But what you just posted is THE ABSOLUTE WORST CASE SCENARIO POST FOR A SNOW LOVER.  Go back to not posting.  Sheesh

Frank has been a busy man. “Any time soon” can mean a lot of things. LR between 1st-5th/7th will begin the step down to what we are looking for. It right there here in the ensembles. The strat is cooperating. There is no reason to panic with a single Frank post.

[Frank_Wx]

Yea my post is valid through the rest of January. I have not looked into February at all yet.

[docstox12]

The GEFS and other models do not look thrilled for a snowy pattern anytime soon. We're likely to see more cold than mild days once we get passed tomorrow's rainstorm, however, it looks set-up to be a cutter pattern followed by cold behind it. +AO/+NAO/-EPO would keep the main trough axis confined to the west-central U.S.

UGH!!!  I can deal with a couple of weeks of a January thaw.  But what you just posted is THE ABSOLUTE WORST CASE SCENARIO POST FOR A SNOW LOVER.  Go back to not posting.  Sheesh

Frank has been a busy man. “Any time soon” can mean a lot of things. LR between 1st-5th/7th will begin the step down to what we are looking for. It right there here in the ensembles. The strat is cooperating. There is no reason to panic with a single Frank post.

OK, steady as she goes, all is well! February is a great month for snow in these parts.Not too far away.

[Snow88]

AO is forecasted to crash in the 1st week of February

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

PNA is also rising
NAO is dropping towards neutral

[Snow88]

GFS is looking good starting Super Bowl Weekend



Nice PNA ridge

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