Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Damn it RB now I'm going to be up late to see the late night runs. Must remain calm, still a long way off and borderline right now.

[billg315]

Let’s see where the 0z GFS goes with this.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

12km NAM, hmmmmmm.........

[billg315]

Is the GFS trying to develop the secondary Low off NC on Thursday?

[jmanley32]

12km NAM, hmmmmmm.........

Ya and you should see the 850mb winds to pair with that snow from NYC on east, ripping!

[rb924119]

Is the GFS trying to develop the secondary Low off NC on Thursday?

I don't think the GFS knows what it's trying to do ahahaha this run is laughably bad. I honestly don't care what it prints out lmao between the obvious convective feedback and its thermal profiling, Idk which is worse ahaha

[WeatherBob]

Think we should start a thread for this storm? I think it warrants it right now since rb has the whole room amped up now, haha. Love it!

[billg315]

Is the GFS trying to develop the secondary Low off NC on Thursday?

I don't think the GFS knows what it's trying to do ahahaha this run is laughably bad. I honestly don't care what it prints out lmao between the obvious convective feedback and its thermal profiling, Idk which is worse ahaha

Odd run. Gotta be convective feedback. Toss it. Lol. The secondary seems to form around NC then trots about 500 miles away from the coast at cape May.

[rb924119]

THREE LETTERS. C.M.C.!!!!!!!!!!!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Is the GFS trying to develop the secondary Low off NC on Thursday?

I don't think the GFS knows what it's trying to do ahahaha this run is laughably bad. I honestly don't care what it prints out lmao between the obvious convective feedback and its thermal profiling, Idk which is worse ahaha

Rb what models do you think are best suited to decipher what's happening with a setup like this?

[jmanley32]

Ouch GFS was kinda a miss, seemed way too far south, ironic...

[billg315]

So the 0z NAM and 0z GFS couldn’t be further apart. Lol. Difference is the NAM makes some sense to me. So I’ll lean that way for now. And of course NAM is closer to what rb says and I trust him so I’ll err on that side of things. Lol

[jmanley32]

Think we should start a thread for this storm?  I think it warrants it right now since rb has the whole room amped up now,  haha.  Love it!

sroc said he will do one tomorrow if frank doesnt first.

[SoulSingMG]

Ouch GFS was kinda a miss, seemed way too far south, ironic...

It actually moved a step toward the NAM. NW of 12z's run.

[rb924119]

Is the GFS trying to develop the secondary Low off NC on Thursday?

I don't think the GFS knows what it's trying to do ahahaha this run is laughably bad. I honestly don't care what it prints out lmao between the obvious convective feedback and its thermal profiling, Idk which is worse ahaha

Rb what models do you think are best suited to decipher what's happening with a setup like this?

This is going to sound completely like a C.Y.A. statement, but I honestly don't know. With such an a-typical setup, I don't think there is a reasonable answer that can given here. With most storms, I would say it's a fair statement that you can generally apply certain concepts with a fair degree of certainty (for example, in the blizzard earlier this season, we were able to pick out pretty easily that the models were being afflicted by convective feedback, and given the players on the field hemispherically, we had an idea that the overall progged storm track (to a degree), but more so the western expanse and intensity of the western precipitation shield, was modeled way too inadequately when the dynamics in play were analyzed. Given that, the NAM/SREF combo was the one of choice because WE ALL KNEW what to expect. This time, however; it is a totally different ball game. Occlusions and concomitant secondary developments are still extremely hard to predict because a difference of less than six hours with the phase means the difference between a little snow or warning-criteria snow within a 50-mile radius of the rain-snow line. Throw in a highly anomalous Atlantic blocking scheme, and you're doing the equivalent of sticking a fork in the models' collective outlets. If I had to answer, my best guess would again be the short range models. I think the globals are just too coarse overall to sniff out some of the intricacies. I would like to strongly caution though, that storm typing, pattern recognition, and pure observation and the use of synoptic "horse sense" to determine WHAT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE PLAYERS ON THE FIELD will be much more valuable than guidance itself up until within the final 18-24 hours prior to the onset. Even then I would still tread lightly on the modeling.

[jmanley32]

Ouch GFS was kinda a miss, seemed way too far south, ironic...

It actually moved a step toward the NAM. NW of 12z's run.

Nam would be wild, driving rain damaging winds to heavy snow damaging winds. Wonder what it will do as we get into its better range.

[WeatherBob]

Let’s give the RB cheer!  RB bom bom, RB bom bom RB bom bom!

[rb924119]

I don't know how, but the CMC precipitates for ~21 hours with 850s significantly below freezing and doesn't produce snow lol strange. Anyway, interesting difference with the CMC compared to the American suites is that it makes the southern stream energy the primary this run. I think THAT is going to be the battle royale going forward with this system.

[rb924119]

Let’s give the  RB cheer!  RB bom bom, RB bom bom RB bom bom!

Nah nah nah nah hahaha maybe it works out we can discuss. But right now my thoughts are purely conjecture lmao until it's actually happening......**IF** it's actually happening, THEN we can discuss the possibility of this ahahaha

[WeatherBob]

RB - i don’t have any knowledge of the cmc but if it is like you explain, wouldn’t that mean that the boundary layer is too warm or there is a thin mid- level later above the boundary layer that is too warm? Something along those lines?

[rb924119]

RB - i don’t have any knowledge of the cmc but if it is like you explain,  wouldn’t that mean that the boundary layer is too warm or there is a thin mid- level later above the boundary layer that is too warm?  Something along those lines?

I think it's because it has temperatures well too warm at the surface that's the issue, because nothing above 850 is warm lol Besides, I was just on another forum and it seems like there may be something not quite right with Tropical Tidbits' algorithm, because the map I saw of the CMC from the actual CMC website shows snow darn near identically to the NAM. If it made the northern stream energy the primary.....WHOOFFFFFFF.

[billg315]

If the 850 is below freezing I think we’re good. Even on the “warm” models surface lows are in the upper 30s Thursday night. Drop that a couple degrees with heavy precip we can easily go to snow above freezing at the surface.

[billg315]

Right now I’m liking the NAM (admittedly because it’s closer to what I want, but also because it makes sense). If you look at what I posted this afternoon the NAM solves some of those issues I had (still have) with the other models. Now, I’ll wait to see what the NAM shows at this time tomorrow night when it’s in it’s wheelhouse 48 hours out from the storm.

[rb924119]

DEAR GOD I THINK THE UKMET WOULD BE A SCREAMER THIS RUN

[rb924119]

OMG YES!!! IT TAKES **THE PRIMARY** DUE EAST AT D.C.'s LATITUDE!!!!! OH RAY BOY FIRED UPPPPPPP NOWWWWWW!!!!!

[rb924119]

Based on how tonight's runs have generally gone, I'm fairly inclined to say that we may have ourselves a pretty robust EURO run/suite tonight. Especially with the CMC and UK looking the way they do tonight. Gotta wait and see, unfortunately lmao

[WeatherBob]

I know it’s late , but does anyone have a few model maps to post? Maybe the Ukie depicting the low off the coast, something like that?

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