Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

by **frank 638** Wed Mar 07, 2018 6:35 pm

amugs wrote:GEFS STILL HARPING WOW

will the next storm be the same as this one

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Mar 07, 2018 6:36 pm

Frank a possible Roidzilla? Why do you think it could be that intense? EURO is still a miss and Goldberg is only calling for snow showers.

by **amugs** Wed Mar 07, 2018 7:26 pm

Euro ens now are saying Monday is coming well maybe
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 18 Img_2057

by **devsman** Wed Mar 07, 2018 7:47 pm

Wrong thread

by **rb924119** Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:09 pm

I. AM. FIRED. UPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP FOR NEXT WEEK. OH. MY. GOD. I don't care what the models look like at face value right now, because we have a SERIOUS storm threat on our hands for early next week. WOW.

by **rb924119** Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:16 pm

Deleted.

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:17 pm

rb924119 wrote:I. AM. FIRED. UPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP FOR NEXT WEEK. OH. MY. GOD. I don't care what the models look like at face value right now, because we have a SERIOUS storm threat on our hands for early next week. WOW.

RB, what is your reasoning on why this storm has the potential to be a major event?

by **jmanley32** Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:25 pm

I saw that post rb why did you delete it, was just go say if it ends up favoring the coast I will take u for a drink so we can shoot the breeze about the storm after and revel in my 40 inches LOL, I am curious what has Frank and rb ticking bout this, Franks scroll already mentions a roidzilla not just saying a coastal storm a actual 24+ storm. See I bounce right back, I just needed to step away. Looking forward to a few days of tracking, Sunday is right around the corner, again I love the in close together storms. And Sunday will be the 3rd in 10 days.

by **rb924119** Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:26 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I. AM. FIRED. UPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP FOR NEXT WEEK. OH. MY. GOD. I don't care what the models look like at face value right now, because we have a SERIOUS storm threat on our hands for early next week. WOW.
RB, what is your reasoning on why this storm has the potential to be a major event?

The entire pattern evolution. It is a CLASSIC look and analogs almost perfectly to our biggest storms. I'm way too tired to go into detail right now, but this set up is one we have ALL been waiting on for several years. And now it looks like we may finally get it. Be fully prepared for model mayhem these next five days, because we are going to start seeing some ridiculous future runs.

by **billg315** Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:28 pm

Annndd, Begin! Lol.

by **rb924119** Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:30 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I saw that post rb why did you delete it, was just go say if it ends up favoring the coast I will take u for a drink so we can shoot the breeze about the storm after and revel in my 40 inches LOL, I am curious what has Frank and rb ticking bout this, Franks scroll already mentions a roidzilla not just saying a coastal storm a actual 24+ storm. See I bounce right back, I just needed to step away. Looking forward to a few days of tracking, Sunday is right around the corner, again I love the in close together storms. And Sunday will be the 3rd in 10 days.

I deleted it because i remembered how today's even unfolded with much QPF lost to melting in around the I-95 for many locations. To correct it, I would say that **it looks to even favor snow to the coast again**. As for why, see my response to nutley: I'm way too tired to really elaborate further tonight lol sorry bud, but I have been awake for 36 hours again and am about to crash hahaha

by **jmanley32** Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:33 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I saw that post rb why did you delete it, was just go say if it ends up favoring the coast I will take u for a drink so we can shoot the breeze about the storm after and revel in my 40 inches LOL, I am curious what has Frank and rb ticking bout this, Franks scroll already mentions a roidzilla not just saying a coastal storm a actual 24+ storm. See I bounce right back, I just needed to step away. Looking forward to a few days of tracking, Sunday is right around the corner, again I love the in close together storms. And Sunday will be the 3rd in 10 days.

I deleted it because i remembered how today's even unfolded with much QPF lost to melting in around the I-95 for many locations. To correct it, I would say that **it looks to even favor snow to the coast again**. As for why, see my response to nutley: I'm way too tired to really elaborate further tonight lol sorry bud, but I have been awake for 36 hours again and am about to crash hahaha

OMG I cant stay awake 18 go to sleep, sleep is needed to live a long like and we need you around. Excited that ur excited, hoping ur right bout this upcoming one. You were not completely wrong about today and hats off to that.

by **jmanley32** Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:34 pm

I really hope a huge storm will allow us to overcome the warmth of the area, but again i am not heat island. I almost always see more than NYC and even the bronx sometimes.

by **rb924119** Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:44 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I saw that post rb why did you delete it, was just go say if it ends up favoring the coast I will take u for a drink so we can shoot the breeze about the storm after and revel in my 40 inches LOL, I am curious what has Frank and rb ticking bout this, Franks scroll already mentions a roidzilla not just saying a coastal storm a actual 24+ storm. See I bounce right back, I just needed to step away. Looking forward to a few days of tracking, Sunday is right around the corner, again I love the in close together storms. And Sunday will be the 3rd in 10 days.

I deleted it because i remembered how today's even unfolded with much QPF lost to melting in around the I-95 for many locations. To correct it, I would say that **it looks to even favor snow to the coast again**. As for why, see my response to nutley: I'm way too tired to really elaborate further tonight lol sorry bud, but I have been awake for 36 hours again and am about to crash hahaha
OMG I cant stay awake 18 go to sleep, sleep is needed to live a long like and we need you around. Excited that ur excited, hoping ur right bout this upcoming one. You were not completely wrong about today and hats off to that.

I think it's reasonably safe to say that ALL of the long range crew, here and elsewhere, are excited about this possibility hahaha This would also explain Frank's scroll mentioning a possible Roidzilla at this long lead time. Keep your expectations low, but of the two events we have had recently, THIS ONE holds the most potential to be BIG. I'll leave you with that for now, so you can dream of the possibilities :p As for my thoughts regarding the one that is wrapping up; my ideas were shown have merit for a while, but I failed to accurately asses the result for two reasons - 1. I think I underestimated the strength of the block and the effects it would have on deflecting the overall evolution further south and east, and 2. I put too much emphasis on the western Atlantic SST anomaly configuration and impacts it would have on seasonal and convective process feedbacks. I will make note of this for next time. But this system is one that I feel VERY STRONGLY about. More to come as time permits!! Enjoy!!!

by Smittyaj623 Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:49 pm

Will we ever have a Jonas like storm again? (I know it’s off topic) but man would we all die to see one of those.

by **rb924119** Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:55 pm

Smittyaj623 wrote:Will we ever have a Jonas like storm again? (I know it’s off topic) but man would we all die to see one of those.

See my initial response to nutley, and I think you can connect the dots as to what **THE POTENTIAL** of this upcoming system **COULD BE** Wink

by **billg315** Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:57 pm

Well it certainly follows a classic storm track. Storm develops over Lower Mississippi Valley; feeds off gulf moisture; moves to the outer banks of NC; deepens as it moves to the BM. If it turns up the coast instead of sliding OTS it will be the type of evolution that gives us some big storms. That’s a superficial look after a day of snow watching. I’ll look forward to seeing how this develops - after a good night or two of sleep. Lol.

by **MattyICE** Wed Mar 07, 2018 10:14 pm

One thing to note is the traffic jam in the N ATL. On the 18z GFS it takes 48 hours for the storm to go from Cape Hatteras to Nova Scotia.

by **jmanley32** Wed Mar 07, 2018 10:15 pm

MattyICE wrote:One thing to note is the traffic jam in the N ATL. On the 18z GFS it takes 48 hours for the storm to go from Cape Hatteras to Nova Scotia.

wow days of snow

by Guest Wed Mar 07, 2018 10:59 pm

If we are coming off two consecutive storms that dropped 2’ or more in parts of the area and this one has the most potential then HOLY FECES. SIGN ME UP

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:04 pm

Just back in from finishing the fourth and final cleanup from the 2 feet of snow that fell today.

I know it's just fatigue right now, but I don't care about Monday.

There goes my OTI citizenship down the tubes.

by **billg315** Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:06 pm

No, no. We’re all there right now CP. lol. Just give it 24 hours for the batteries to re-charge.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:06 pm

MattyICE wrote:One thing to note is the traffic jam in the N ATL. On the 18z GFS it takes 48 hours for the storm to go from Cape Hatteras to Nova Scotia.

Good point Matty

by mwilli5783 Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:08 pm

holy feces?....that's the best line i've heard all night.....bring it on

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:08 pm

billg315 wrote:No, no. We’re all there right now CP. lol. Just give it 24 hours for the batteries to re-charge.

Just want you to know that was my thumbs up that upped your reputation just now to 51 surpassing my 50 and putting you ahead of me. Cause that's the kind of guy I am.

No wait Syos is Guy.

by **amugs** Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:35 pm

The H5bevutio. Depicted on the models tonight are a hair away about 6 hours from an EXPLOSIVE storm tat could break all kinds of records IF it can come together.
The pattern dictates the outcome.
My Heathers Archimbault snowstorm.
We can do tjis, so let get er done.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:48 pm

At a brief glance of some guidance I do feel all the right pieces are there for another major coastal to impact the area next Monday. The main roadblock will be the confluence over New England that will keep heights flat over the east coast. It's a case where there's literally a traffic jam of low pressure centers all the way into the northern Atlantic. The -NAO is slowing them down. If heights are not improved along the EC then Mondays storm has no path to get here. We need more separation between the polar energy and the upper air energy associated with today's coastal storm. We have a +PNA and a -NAO. I would bet on there being some form of impact than not at this juncture.

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