May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Check out the Damage in Hamden CT from the storms yesterday...impressive

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/996704261617733632

Scott and Soul, I just wanted to let you know that I didn't forget about you, and wanted to thank you both for the shoutouts a little while back. I really wish that I could have put together a video for everybody, though, because i think it will turn out to be a great learning tool for all of us. Anyway, I wonder how long it will be now before other outlets start discussing the "potential" now that the EURO just did what it did, and EVERY model now has a system? Lmaoooo I also wish Ryan could be around more so we could continue that discussion, but he's a busy man haha fun times ahead!!

This weather sucks rain today until Sunday

Quietace wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Scott and Soul, I just wanted to let you know that I didn't forget about you, and wanted to thank you both for the shoutouts a little while back. I really wish that I could have put together a video for everybody, though, because i think it will turn out to be a great learning tool for all of us. Anyway, I wonder how long it will be now before other outlets start discussing the "potential" now that the EURO just did what it did, and EVERY model now has a system? Lmaoooo I also wish Ryan could be around more so we could continue that discussion, but he's a busy man haha fun times ahead!!

Dynamics Final today and then I am done with undergrad...Give me a day or two

I’m looking forward to sitting back and reading the discussion between you two with a cup of coffee. Ryan. Good luck with your final. Ray. How’s the project coming along?

Quietace wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Scott and Soul, I just wanted to let you know that I didn't forget about you, and wanted to thank you both for the shoutouts a little while back. I really wish that I could have put together a video for everybody, though, because i think it will turn out to be a great learning tool for all of us. Anyway, I wonder how long it will be now before other outlets start discussing the "potential" now that the EURO just did what it did, and EVERY model now has a system? Lmaoooo I also wish Ryan could be around more so we could continue that discussion, but he's a busy man haha fun times ahead!!

Dynamics Final today and then I am done with undergrad...Give me a day or two

Dynamics?!!! I LOVED DYNAMICS!!! QG Theory, Sutcliffe Development Theory, Q-vectors, etc.....YES YES YESSSSSS!!!!!!!!!! Good luck, buddy!!! Can't wait to hear you say (or, read, I guess lmao) how well you did!!! And no worries, bud; we ALL understand what finals are like ahaha

Scott, my end of it is done. 100%. It's been beta-tested, well, partially, and it works amazingly. Gotta wait for my friend to finish his end of it before we can really test the whole thing as a unit, but in the meantime, I'm keeping busy with some additional aspects. I have a few minor updates that I'm going to add over the summer, most likely, and a few questions that I will likely have answered either next week or the following. Either way, it's technically operational now and would do just fine, but the "over the top" part is still in progress. Definitely is everything I wanted to accomplish and more so far, so I can't wait to see how my friend's end turns out!!! Believe me when I tell you that it's taking everything I have to not reveal everything I have so far ahaha but when it drops, it's gonna drop with a bang haha

rb924119 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Scott and Soul, I just wanted to let you know that I didn't forget about you, and wanted to thank you both for the shoutouts a little while back. I really wish that I could have put together a video for everybody, though, because i think it will turn out to be a great learning tool for all of us. Anyway, I wonder how long it will be now before other outlets start discussing the "potential" now that the EURO just did what it did, and EVERY model now has a system? Lmaoooo I also wish Ryan could be around more so we could continue that discussion, but he's a busy man haha fun times ahead!!

Dynamics Final today and then I am done with undergrad...Give me a day or two

Dynamics?!!! I LOVED DYNAMICS!!! QG Theory, Sutcliffe Development Theory, Q-vectors, etc.....YES YES YESSSSSS!!!!!!!!!! Good luck, buddy!!! Can't wait to hear you say (or, read, I guess lmao) how well you did!!! And no worries, bud; we ALL understand what finals are like ahaha

Scott, my end of it is done. 100%. It's been beta-tested, well, partially, and it works amazingly. Gotta wait for my friend to finish his end of it before we can really test the whole thing as a unit, but in the meantime, I'm keeping busy with some additional aspects. I have a few minor updates that I'm going to add over the summer, most likely, and a few questions that I will likely have answered either next week or the following. Either way, it's technically operational now and would do just fine, but the "over the top" part is still in progress. Definitely is everything I wanted to accomplish and more so far, so I can't wait to see how my friend's end turns out!!! Believe me when I tell you that it's taking everything I have to not reveal everything I have so far ahaha but when it drops, it's gonna drop with a bang haha

DUDE!!!!!!




In all seriousness Im looking forward to the big reveal. Also Check your PM

GFS!!!! GFS!!!!! GFS!!!!!!!

Snow88 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:GFS!!!! GFS!!!!! GFS!!!!!!!

300 hours out

But at least we have development on ALL globals now around Days 6-9. That's the part that maters to me right now, but I always love watching the GFS be stupid ahaha though, it's solution is not entirely out of the realm of possibilities lol just pretty unlikely IMO.

So Ray, aka rb, posted about J. Bastardi's post on Weatherbell over in the banter thread.  I just had a chance to read it and I have to say I have to agree; it is a fascinating read on the big picture of todays climate discussions/debates.  Regardless of which side of the fence you side with on this issue its posts like these that need to be read and pondered instead of simply putting on the blinders; focusing on only the discussions on the side that you currently agree with.  

Interestingly enough JB also adds discussion about the potential early tropical threat in the same areas that Ray has been discussing.  That fact that JB agrees with Ray's ideas is likely another reason Ray likes JB's post so much..lol

All kidding aside the reasoning behind Ray and JB's ideas are sound regarding this potential threat whether it happens or not. So here is the post:

1) https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/05/17/dont-tell-anyone-but-we-just-had-two-years-of-record-breaking-global-cooling/

We just had a record drop in temperatures, Let me ask you a question as a snow lover. Suppose it was 72 degrees on a January afternoon and in an hour it dropped to 40. Fast 1-hour drop on record, But the normal temps was 32. And it was raining. Would you be bragging about a record drop in temp?

Here is the fact, If it had not gotten so darn warm because of the SUPER NINO, it would not have been as big a drop. If it were for instance 50 and dropped to 20, and it was a record drop and below normal, that's impressive, Though not as big a drop, after the nino of 97-98, and then 04-05,06-07,09-10 TEMPS BY THIS TIME HAD DROPPED BELOW 30 YEAR RUNNING MEANS

But here is the dirty little secret, According to UAH ITS NOT A RECORD. how can I tell? Because the drop from the 97-98 Nino and the peak in early 1998 to the start of 2000 was a) bigger and b) had temps below the 30 year means, You can look at the data


The rise was greater and so was the fall off, In addition this is the ONLY EL NINO where within 2 years temps have not returned to at least the 30 year average one month, The 2 Red x's ( there should be a 3rd in 2012 clearly tell a story in the wake of previous ninos. Here is what I suspect is going on, The super Ninos, and again I think this is natural. stick so much water vapor into the air that they establish a new set point that is higher than the previous one, So unless some super nina comes along, What you may have going on is another 20 year pause, but established at a higher level. I have been throwing this idea around for a couple of years and I will have my answer by the end of 2020 for this modoki coming on, if it does not warm things more, may be followed by an event that would get this back down, So I am not certain But I suspect since the bulk of the warming is where its coldest and driest, then it takes only very tiny amounts of WV to have higher temperatures there and that is reflected in the global temp.

You have to understand that THIS IS VERY RELEVANT TO THE WEATHER, It not just climate, For instance, the GLAAM back in the 1980s was higher on average than it is now. If one goes back and looks at all the GLAAM records, we find that the past 20 years have found lower GLAAM, My take is the temperature and pressure patterns on the planet due to the distorted warming are being affected and that in turn has implications. But you cant simply ignore that stuff if you are going to forecast, no matter what the cause, interestingly enough, it also falls into line with the idea that the weather can be less extreme, but that is not part of the grievance here, But I get emailed things ( the record cooling for instance, or ideas on a little ice age from sudden solar response ) and then I say that is all well and good, but its still warm.

How would you like it if it's snowing back to your west and I am emailing you saying heh, how about that temperature dropping to 40?

Okay now, lets get to some other issues. First of all where life thrives, temperatures are likely not as far above normal as the global temperature, 2cnd using records back to 1895 is a joke, Its warmed no doubt, but using satellite era temperatures that for instance Dr roy Spencer can show) is where we should be. Besides, there has been enough warming the last 35 years to say its warming

Back before the big March 22 storm I went off on the Atmospheric Authoritarians that were all in a huff over people posting eye candy 7-10 days in advance on that storm, Well they are at it again, trying to get people to quit posting the GFS eye candy southeast hurricane, The reason I think there is early season development has to do with the MJO and past similar patterns, But we all know the GFS is going to predict something in advance and until the Euro sees it, the best we can say is the GFS is trying to sniff out the pattern, But it tells you something about the weakness in the model when it comes to how it handles heat and feedback and that has got to affect the US suite of models if the same basic ideas are used in the model, but no matter, when i got slammed for jumping all over Sandy so far out ( hence my sensitivity to the matter) look what happened, I pointed out a case 2 winters ago when the authority was slamming ideas a week out on a big southern snow/ice event and look what happened, Anyone notice that was one heck of a storm March 20-22? And what about the April snow in the lakes Well if the past is a predictor of the future, the authoritarians are showing up again, I can't figure it out, They must be threatened that weather hobbyists or whatever are doing their job? What else can it be? Listen you want to post maps go for it. If you are wrong enough, people won't care. If you are right enough they will, But this idea that somehow people are too stupid to be able to figure out if they can post something, and people are too stupid to figure out if something was right or wrong and use that flies in the face of freedom of choice in my opinion, This isnt yelling fire in a crowded theatre, its people that are into the weather so much they cant sleep so they are posting maps, So what more power to them, So you have to worry about what you say, and in the weather about what you post if you are a weather hobbyist? What makes anyone think they KNOW tomorrow, if someone wants to have an opinion and post, go for it,

You know maybe there is another motive. It could be that if you actually post every GFS hurricane, people will realize how bad modeling is, As I have tried to make clear about this early season development idea, its the MJO that has me watching this, What next no posting MJO forecasts?

Sea Ice is important, Snowfall is important, I dont pay much attention to either because it is an endless loop of tit for tat, back and forth, Let me give you an example

Currently seas ice in the Antarctic is well below average so this is an aha moment . It might even be a record for the date



but 3 years ago it was at record highs. That was covered up except for the nerds that follow this. the other side was in denial,

2 years ago Greenland had reportedly record low snow and ice cover, Not anymore



anyone making a big deal about that,

Arctic sea ice is near record lows for the date ( which means with antarctic, for the date, we are probably at record lows)



but here is the problem, Just like Greenland had alot of snow and ice to reverse, antartica may quickly go back to or above normal anytime. Combine that with the CFSV2 sea ice forecast ( which is clearly overdone, but says to me the record low min that occurred after el ninos of 06 and 09-10 is likely not going to occur

means that by the end of our summer, those totals that are low now may be quite a bit closer to normal, The CFSV2 back in 2012 , showed a collapse of the arctic sea ice anomaly

so it saw it decreasing, something it has not done the past few years ( though its always overdone) but chances are this post nino will be different than the previous ones mentioned because there is no record summer min, The dirty little secret is the frigid arctic winters are a bit warmer, but no one will tell you the summers are not,

How about snowcover.

Summer snowcover is decreasing


but winter is going the opposite way, and that is impressive



because when you have something that is at a high point, its tougher to get it even higher, What no one really shows is THE AREAL COVERAGE BY YEAR OF SNOW AND ICE TOGETHER AT ITS MAX. People point out less ice in the Arctic , but I suspect the amount of snow and ice together is about the same, as less ice but more snow may balance things out. Again Water vapor is the key, For it limits how cold it can get if there are more clouds in these areas, but it snows more as a counterweight,

Finally where its warmer is a big deal, Look at this JMA 30 day between 60 north and south where most of the life on the planet lives



Blue and yellow look about equal

So I have aired some grievances here Friday, I caution people looking for a colder climate than the record drop if we put it in perspective is not that big a deal and truth be told, it does not even look to be one, since a bigger drop occurred in a smaller period of time ( after a record rise)

I have my reasons for an early season storm, but given some examples when I have spoken up against the Weather Authoritarians that wish to silence the blogging community posting of wild maps, and the fact that those features then showed up perhaps that's even a stronger reason haha You just keep on posting and giving your opinion. Free will is an inalienable right: a right according to natural law, a right that cannot be taken away, denied, or transferred

Always be skeptical, first of your own ideas ( you can use criticisms to help) but in anything that is important to you. Just my opinion, yours may be different and thats fine with me,

Notes and asides
Day 2 of a bird slamming himself into my sliding door window downstairs trying to get into the house, Very strange, Must be too much co2

sroc4 wrote:So Ray, aka rb, posted about J. Bastardi's post on Weatherbell over in the banter thread.  I just had a chance to read it and I have to say I have to agree; it is a fascinating read on the big picture of todays climate discussions/debates.  Regardless of which side of the fence you side with on this issue its posts like these that need to be read and pondered instead of simply putting on the blinders; focusing on only the discussions on the side that you currently agree with.  

Interestingly enough JB also adds discussion about the potential early tropical threat in the same areas that Ray has been discussing.  That fact that JB agrees with Ray's ideas is likely another reason Ray likes JB's post so much..lol

All kidding aside the reasoning behind Ray and JB's ideas are sound regarding this potential threat whether it happens or not. So here is the post:

1) https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/05/17/dont-tell-anyone-but-we-just-had-two-years-of-record-breaking-global-cooling/

We just had a record drop in temperatures, Let me ask you a question as a snow lover. Suppose it was 72 degrees on a January afternoon and in an hour it dropped to 40. Fast 1-hour drop on record, But the normal temps was 32. And it was raining. Would you be bragging about a record drop in temp?

Here is the fact, If it had not gotten so darn warm because of the SUPER NINO, it would not have been as big a drop. If it were for instance 50 and dropped to 20, and it was a record drop and below normal, that's impressive, Though not as big a drop, after the nino of 97-98, and then 04-05,06-07,09-10 TEMPS BY THIS TIME HAD DROPPED BELOW 30 YEAR RUNNING MEANS

But here is the dirty little secret, According to UAH ITS NOT A RECORD. how can I tell? Because the drop from the 97-98 Nino and the peak in early 1998 to the start of 2000 was a) bigger and b) had temps below the 30 year means, You can look at the data


The rise was greater and so was the fall off, In addition this is the ONLY EL NINO where within 2 years temps have not returned to at least the 30 year average one month, The 2 Red x's ( there should be a 3rd in 2012 clearly tell a story in the wake of previous ninos. Here is what I suspect is going on, The super Ninos, and again I think this is natural. stick so much water vapor into the air that they establish a new set point that is higher than the previous one, So unless some super nina comes along, What you may have going on is another 20 year pause, but established at a higher level. I have been throwing this idea around for a couple of years and I will have my answer by the end of 2020 for this modoki coming on, if it does not warm things more, may be followed by an event that would get this back down, So I am not certain But I suspect since the bulk of the warming is where its coldest and driest, then it takes only very tiny amounts of WV to have higher temperatures there and that is reflected in the global temp.

You have to understand that THIS IS VERY RELEVANT TO THE WEATHER, It not just climate, For instance, the GLAAM back in the 1980s was higher on average than it is now. If one goes back and looks at all the GLAAM records, we find that the past 20 years have found lower GLAAM, My take is the temperature and pressure patterns on the planet due to the distorted warming are being affected and that in turn has implications. But you cant simply ignore that stuff if you are going to forecast, no matter what the cause, interestingly enough, it also falls into line with the idea that the weather can be less extreme, but that is not part of the grievance here, But I get emailed things ( the record cooling for instance, or ideas on a little ice age from sudden solar response ) and then I say that is all well and good, but its still warm.

How would you like it if it's snowing back to your west and I am emailing you saying heh, how about that temperature dropping to 40?

Okay now, lets get to some other issues. First of all where life thrives, temperatures are likely not as far above normal as the global temperature, 2cnd using records back to 1895 is a joke, Its warmed no doubt, but using satellite era temperatures that for instance Dr roy Spencer can show) is where we should be. Besides, there has been enough warming the last 35 years to say its warming

Back before the big March 22 storm I went off on the Atmospheric Authoritarians that were all in a huff over people posting eye candy 7-10 days in advance on that storm, Well they are at it again, trying to get people to quit posting the GFS eye candy southeast hurricane, The reason I think there is early season development has to do with the MJO and past similar patterns, But we all know the GFS is going to predict something in advance and until the Euro sees it, the best we can say is the GFS is trying to sniff out the pattern, But it tells you something about the weakness in the model when it comes to how it handles heat and feedback and that has got to affect the US suite of models if the same basic ideas are used in the model, but no matter, when i got slammed for jumping all over Sandy so far out ( hence my sensitivity to the matter) look what happened, I pointed out a case 2 winters ago when the authority was slamming ideas a week out on a big southern snow/ice event and look what happened, Anyone notice that was one heck of a storm March 20-22? And what about the April snow in the lakes Well if the past is a predictor of the future, the authoritarians are showing up again, I can't figure it out, They must be threatened that weather hobbyists or whatever are doing their job? What else can it be? Listen you want to post maps go for it. If you are wrong enough, people won't care. If you are right enough they will, But this idea that somehow people are too stupid to be able to figure out if they can post something, and people are too stupid to figure out if something was right or wrong and use that flies in the face of freedom of choice in my opinion, This isnt yelling fire in a crowded theatre, its people that are into the weather so much they cant sleep so they are posting maps, So what more power to them, So you have to worry about what you say, and in the weather about what you post if you are a weather hobbyist? What makes anyone think they KNOW tomorrow, if someone wants to have an opinion and post, go for it,

You know maybe there is another motive. It could be that if you actually post every GFS hurricane, people will realize how bad modeling is, As I have tried to make clear about this early season development idea, its the MJO that has me watching this, What next no posting MJO forecasts?

Sea Ice is important, Snowfall is important, I dont pay much attention to either because it is an endless loop of tit for tat, back and forth, Let me give you an example

Currently seas ice in the Antarctic is well below average so this is an aha moment . It might even be a record for the date



but 3 years ago it was at record highs. That was covered up except for the nerds that follow this. the other side was in denial,

2 years ago Greenland had reportedly record low snow and ice cover, Not anymore



anyone making a big deal about that,

Arctic sea ice is near record lows for the date ( which means with antarctic, for the date, we are probably at record lows)



but here is the problem, Just like Greenland had alot of snow and ice to reverse, antartica may quickly go back to or above normal anytime. Combine that with the CFSV2 sea ice forecast ( which is clearly overdone, but says to me the record low min that occurred after el ninos of 06 and 09-10 is likely not going to occur

means that by the end of our summer, those totals that are low now may be quite a bit closer to normal, The CFSV2 back in 2012 , showed a collapse of the arctic sea ice anomaly

so it saw it decreasing, something it has not done the past few years ( though its always overdone) but chances are this post nino will be different than the previous ones mentioned because there is no record summer min, The dirty little secret is the frigid arctic winters are a bit warmer, but no one will tell you the summers are not,

How about snowcover.

Summer snowcover is decreasing


but winter is going the opposite way, and that is impressive



because when you have something that is at a high point, its tougher to get it even higher, What no one really shows is THE AREAL COVERAGE BY YEAR OF SNOW AND ICE TOGETHER AT ITS MAX. People point out less ice in the Arctic , but I suspect the amount of snow and ice together is about the same, as less ice but more snow may balance things out. Again Water vapor is the key, For it limits how cold it can get if there are more clouds in these areas, but it snows more as a counterweight,

Finally where its warmer is a big deal, Look at this JMA 30 day between 60 north and south where most of the life on the planet lives



Blue and yellow look about equal

So I have aired some grievances here Friday, I caution people looking for a colder climate than the record drop if we put it in perspective is not that big a deal and truth be told, it does not even look to be one, since a bigger drop occurred in a smaller period of time ( after a record rise)

I have my reasons for an early season storm, but given some examples when I have spoken up against the Weather Authoritarians that wish to silence the blogging community posting of wild maps, and the fact that those features then showed up perhaps that's even a stronger reason haha You just keep on posting and giving your opinion. Free will is an inalienable right: a right according to natural law, a right that cannot be taken away, denied, or transferred

Always be skeptical, first of your own ideas ( you can use criticisms to help) but in anything that is important to you. Just my opinion, yours may be different and thats fine with me,

Notes and asides
Day 2 of a bird slamming himself into my sliding door window downstairs trying to get into the house, Very strange, Must be too much co2

Wow Scott, this looks really interesting, but I will wait to read this tonight when the house is quiet!

Thanks for posting, Scott!!! As for the reason why I enjoyed it so much, that would be one forecast you busted on this year lmfaooo nah, the reason I enjoyed it was mainly because of how he openly supports what we do in/on forums and underground sites like this, others, and personal pages where forecasts are presented to the public. He has a great point, and takes a very similar stance as I do when I comes to interpreting the response from "professional" organizations. They claim that people like us hype everything by showing maps at 300 hours out and getting excited. A) if you're truly into meteorology, and you see a Blizzard of 1888 or Sandy redux, I don't care who you are you're gonna bring it up. It's fun to look at and discuss, that's all. Now, there are those who DO hype events, and it does tarnish our reputation a little, but B) I have enough faith in the public to at least understand the difference between hype, where images are posted with no reasoning, and educated discussion/precaution, where reasons are given as to why it's possible and important to pay attention to. Lastly, is it hype if it happens? Going back to our collective accuracy, how many times do we ACTUALLY end up hyping something to the point where it busts entirely? Not many. Sure, it may not be bad in your backyard, but I think the underground community does a pretty good job of presenting sound reasoning for events to support our excitement for them, which then end up verifying pretty well, at the very least.

As I have stated countless times, I have interacted with the best forecasters on this forum and elsewhere, that I have ever had the pleasure of following/knowing. Hands down. How many times are we (collectively) laps ahead of them in not only picking up on threats/events, but also with respect to the accuracy of our forecasts? It's not even comparable. I think he's spot on when he brings up the fact that they're scared of being shown up in the public eye, as well as being brought to the table to discuss why some of our modeling is so inferior compared to others, and then called on to fix it after spending billions of dollars on it over the last several years alone. It's easier to dismiss us entirely and go on their merry way because we "are not professionals" than to own up to the fact that regularly get beat. I'm not saying that what they do isn't important; their warnings save lives, there's no question. But I can't even imagine how good U.S. forecasts/forecasters could be if the lines of "professionalism" were blurred. I'm technically a "professional", and I am the first to admit I would not even be in the same league with my forecasting as I am if I hadn't found this forum and subsequently branched out to a couple others in recent months. I have learned, and continue to learn, more about forecasting here than I did in my entire time at school, and I imagine there would be similar results if people like you/us were allowed to take part and add value to "professional" organizations.

He also brings up a great point about accuracy: If you're wrong a lot, people won't follow you. If you are, then that's how you grow a following. It's simple. Lastly, this argument can be brought full-circle to research in the field. Why is it ONLY academia and government studies get funded for research? Why can't people active in the private sector getting their hands dirty every day add value? Hell, I think WeatherBell's Pioneer model could add a heck of a lot of value to the CPC outlooks. Or, how about other ideas being worked on behind closed doors in various companies, like my project? Science is science, and it should be open to pursue, debate, and disclose, not dedicated to a few sectors. Sorry about the rant, but THAT'S why I like his post so much. I will admit, though, it's nice to have support for my "horse" in this "race" lmao