Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

by **rb924119** Tue May 29, 2018 9:04 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Just a few more days of May left. Time is flyin'

June looks like it wants to get off to a below normal start. A lot of cut-off low's showing up in the long range under an NAO block.

Weather in general in our area has been uneventful for my liking. Looks like a rainy weekend ahead. Why have our weekends been timed with crap weather??

Happy belated Birthday you old timer!!!! Hahaha hope your day was well spent!! Your post is music to my ears regarding the extended; I'm done with this heat, give me winter again!!! Frank, you're the man to get that accomplished......I beg of you, please strike a deal with Mother Nature lol or as you also said, at least make it more interesting to pass the time lmao

by **Frank_Wx** Wed May 30, 2018 9:32 am

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Just a few more days of May left. Time is flyin'

June looks like it wants to get off to a below normal start. A lot of cut-off low's showing up in the long range under an NAO block.

Weather in general in our area has been uneventful for my liking. Looks like a rainy weekend ahead. Why have our weekends been timed with crap weather??

Happy belated Birthday you old timer!!!! Hahaha hope your day was well spent!! Your post is music to my ears regarding the extended; I'm done with this heat, give me winter again!!! Frank, you're the man to get that accomplished......I beg of you, please strike a deal with Mother Nature lol or as you also said, at least make it more interesting to pass the time lmao

Already miss the cold, eh?

Here is the cut-off low this weekend:

May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 7 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_17

'

Then next week the trough offshore links with another dropping down from Canada:

May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 7 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_26

And mid-June the trough is still there

May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 7 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_64

Obviously below normal in June is not "cold" but it will not be the scorching heat nor humid air mass we've seen. The west is going to BAKE.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed May 30, 2018 9:33 am

Next few days will remain overcast. Maybe some glimpses of the sun today and tomorrow. Steady rain could move in late Friday then again Saturday afternoon.

Saturday 8pm:

May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 7 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15

May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 7 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15

by **Dunnzoo** Wed May 30, 2018 6:50 pm

Ok, I need a favor, my friend is going to propose to his girlfriend this weekend at Bradley Beach. He was planning on 8:20 pm on Saturday, and needs a weather report. The models couldn't be more different. If Saturday is a no go he could do Friday night, but that looks worse. Please help!

by **frank 638** Wed May 30, 2018 8:56 pm

Janet I think Friday night will be a good idea to propose because sat evening into the night it's going to rain I hope this helps and good luck with ur friend propose

by **Dunnzoo** Wed May 30, 2018 9:04 pm

Friday looked like a better chance of tstorms though, gfs has rain pretty much Friday through all day Saturday. NAM has hardly anything!

by **Dunnzoo** Wed May 30, 2018 11:58 pm

Tonight's runs do look better for Friday night than Saturday night...going to give it til noon runs tomorrow.

by **sroc4** Thu May 31, 2018 7:04 am

Dunnzoo wrote:Ok, I need a favor, my friend is going to propose to his girlfriend this weekend at Bradley Beach. He was planning on 8:20 pm on Saturday, and needs a weather report. The models couldn't be more different. If Saturday is a no go he could do Friday night, but that looks worse. Please help!

Good morning Janet. If I had to guess after analyzing GFS, Euro, RGEM, 12K NAM and 3K NAM that Friday night between 5-7pm offers the greatest probability of decent weather for a proposal. While both evenings, Fri and Sat, offer chances for rain, Sat looks more consistently overcast and dreary/steady precip after 4-5pm, while Friday's chances seem more hit or miss and likely have clearer skies in between chances. Like you said the possibility of a down pour or thunderstorm exists tomorrow night, but to me it looks like mid to late afternoon-ish, then again as you head into the later hours of Friday, 8pm-midnight with a window in between for decent weather. That's the way I see it as o fthis am. I will re-eval 12z and let you know if it looks any different to me.

by **Dunnzoo** Thu May 31, 2018 7:27 am

Thanks Scott! That's about what I was going to suggest to him after seeing this morning's runs.

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu May 31, 2018 7:50 am

Dunnzoo wrote:Thanks Scott! That's about what I was going to suggest to him after seeing this morning's runs.

good luck to him..hope it does not rain!! Smile

by **Frank_Wx** Thu May 31, 2018 8:46 am

Friday night for sure

by **Frank_Wx** Thu May 31, 2018 8:47 am

The weather looks so awful - cloudy/cool/rainy - this weekend and next week that I may just locate where Thor lives and persuade him to move NJ into the Caribbean.

by **billg315** Thu May 31, 2018 10:12 am

Well, trying to be a glass half-full guy, maybe getting the rain, clouds and cool temps out of the way early will leave us with a lot of really nice weekends from late June to Labor Day. Maybe. Wink

by **Dunnzoo** Thu May 31, 2018 10:19 am

billg315 wrote:Well, trying to be a glass half-full guy, maybe getting the rain, clouds and cool temps out of the way early will leave us with a lot of really nice weekends from late June to Labor Day. Maybe.

That's my thinking too Bill!

Btw, now my friend is asking about Sunday! Rolling Eyes

by **sroc4** Thu May 31, 2018 11:44 am

Dunnzoo wrote:
billg315 wrote:Well, trying to be a glass half-full guy, maybe getting the rain, clouds and cool temps out of the way early will leave us with a lot of really nice weekends from late June to Labor Day. Maybe.

That's my thinking too Bill!

Btw, now my friend is asking about Sunday!

12z conts to make me think Friday night between 5-7 is the time. Tell your friend to quite stalling...lol

by **Frank_Wx** Thu May 31, 2018 5:53 pm

Jesus it is pitiful looking out

by **frank 638** Thu May 31, 2018 7:10 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Jesus it is pitiful looking out

its nasty and depressing outside why cant we have this weather in the fall time esp in oct and nov .hopefully we will have our summer soon after next week

by Fededle22 Thu May 31, 2018 8:01 pm

I'm not asking for it to be 100 degrees outside but I would like it warmer than the 60s. This pattern of raining or cool/damp weather every weekend really does suck. And for all you guys that are already asking for winter.. Come on, give us a break and allow us to enjoy some warm weather so we can be outside with our families.

by **Dtone** Fri Jun 01, 2018 10:56 am

Despite bouts of dreary/cool weather, May ended up well above normal temp wise and below normal rainfall.
Good enough for another top 10 warmest month at all the major reporting sites..actually top 5 at most sites.

Central Park avg temp: 66.9* (+4.5*)
6th warmest May on record.

Rain: 3.53" (-0.66)

May (and season to date) 90 degree days:
LGA 4
Newark 4
Teterboro 3
Central Park 2
JFK/Islip 0

by **1190ftalt** Fri Jun 01, 2018 9:39 pm

Just started pouring and heavy winds thunder and lightning in Stillwater NJ, wow this thing has some punch to it, east of here get inside !

by Fededle22 Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:29 pm

Wow. Just started pouring out of nowhere here as well. Driving rain against my house with thunder but have not seen any flashes of lightening. Today turned out to be nicer than I thought. Hopefully the weekend is not a total washout.

by **Snow88** Sun Jun 03, 2018 7:42 pm

59 right now

Feels like Autumn

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