Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

by **Dunnzoo** Fri May 04, 2018 5:28 pm

So I took the day off to go to the beach today. I should have checked the wind direction before I left! Seaside was at 65° and a cold wind off the ocean making it feel like 50°. Needless to say, we spent the day in the Spicy Cantina, with a short walk on the boardwalk to get some Berkeley chocolate. As soon as we crossed the bridge back into Toms River it was 88°. Oh well....

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun May 06, 2018 1:12 am

Happy Sunday..weather in Barcelona is Beautiful today...woke up to 57* and partly cloudy sky's and lots of pretty chirping birds

by **Math23x7** Sun May 06, 2018 1:16 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:Happy Sunday..weather in Barcelona is Beautiful today...woke up to 57* and partly cloudy sky's and lots of pretty chirping birds

You're in Barcelona, as in Barcelona, Spain?

by **Snow88** Mon May 07, 2018 8:32 am

61 here

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon May 07, 2018 7:14 pm

Math23x7 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Happy Sunday..weather in Barcelona is Beautiful today...woke up to 57* and partly cloudy sky's and lots of pretty chirping birds

You're in Barcelona, as in Barcelona, Spain?

Yes we we're now we just left Palma de Mallorca headed for Marseille..the weather was gorgeous as was the island high around 70....we are on a cruise

by **rb924119** Mon May 07, 2018 10:19 pm

I honestly haven't been paying too much attention these last couple weeks. I've been so busy doing firewood on my weekends and then working I haven't much time to actually sit down and look. That said, I DO think the MJO is making itself known as the 6-10 day forecasts appear to be backing down from their corresponding temperature forecasts in the 10-15 over the last several days of cycles. Again, I cannot concretely confirm or deny that, though, as I haven't actually sat down and done "one-to-one" comparisons. I WILL say I'm still very anxious to see if something tropical (or sub-tropical) tries popping once the MJO rolls into Phase 2, as I believe that phase corresponds very well to development in the Gulf and along and/or just offshore of the Southeast coast, as well as the time-mean surface pressures remaining higher than normal across the east-central U.S. thanks to anomalous soil moisture content leading to cooler than average surface temperatures and resultant higher pressure then aided by the MJO Phase 2 (probably should confirm that, but I'm pretty sure I remember reading a paper or two on the MJO a while back......my memory is shotty AT BEST, though so take that with extreme caution hahahaha)

As a follow-up, I like the period from ~May 15th through ~May 25th for our first true tropical/sub-tropical system to develop either in the western/northwestern Caribbean, Gulf, and or extreme western Atlantic. The reasons were generally discussed above, but I also like the look of -AO and negative SOI to assist penetrating, albeit transient troughs cutting through the eastern CONUS. This will help supply the surface ridging and aid in enhanced lower-level convergence along and near the coasts. I'm officially on the board with a forecast, so let's see how this pans out!!! Haha any thoughts?

A trough split will be the most likely culprit that then feeds back close to land rather than a classic tropical system that develops from scratch.

by **jmanley32** Wed May 09, 2018 12:20 pm

Rb you know I'm with ya for the tropics. If no o e else does ill start a thread in may e a week or 2. I think as has been pretty common over recent years we see some sort of development before June 1st.

Also supposed to be a above average year with 14 named I think 7 hurricane and 3 major. I noted a cool spot off our coast if anything made it up this way would quickly die out or transition.

by **rb924119** Thu May 10, 2018 1:39 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Rb you know I'm with ya for the tropics. If no o e else does ill start a thread in may e a week or 2. I think as has been pretty common over recent years we see some sort of development before June 1st.

Also supposed to be a above average year with 14 named I think 7 hurricane and 3 major. I noted a cool spot off our coast if anything made it up this way would quickly die out or transition.

Life exists!!!! I thought I was beginning to hear my own echo come back to me because it's so empty in here now ahahaha I know you love the tropics, but you also just brought to light the most aggravating aspects of them; the time it takes to track them ahaha oh well, at least I know I'll have a companion on this journey lmao

by **rb924119** Thu May 10, 2018 1:41 pm

In terms of models, I'm really liking the GFS/FV3-GFS and will continue to ride with them. They make sense with the progged hemispheric and synoptic setup, as well as the theoretical result. As it stands now, I fully expect other modeling to begin picking up on at least some form of development in the same region(s) once in temporal range.

by **rb924119** Thu May 10, 2018 1:59 pm

JMA is also strongly supporting the GFS in it's H5 evolution.

by **sroc4** Thu May 10, 2018 2:43 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Rb you know I'm with ya for the tropics. If no o e else does ill start a thread in may e a week or 2. I think as has been pretty common over recent years we see some sort of development before June 1st.

Also supposed to be a above average year with 14 named I think 7 hurricane and 3 major. I noted a cool spot off our coast if anything made it up this way would quickly die out or transition.

Life exists!!!! I thought I was beginning to hear my own echo come back to me because it's so empty in here now ahahaha I know you love the tropics, but you also just brought to light the most aggravating aspects of them; the time it takes to track them ahaha oh well, at least I know I'll have a companion on this journey lmao

May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 2 Tenor

by **rb924119** Thu May 10, 2018 3:35 pm

Scott!!! Well now it's officially a tracking party! Haha

by **Quietace** Thu May 10, 2018 5:44 pm

rb924119 wrote:In terms of models, I'm really liking the GFS/FV3-GFS and will continue to ride with them. They make sense with the progged hemispheric and synoptic setup, as well as the theoretical result. As it stands now, I fully expect other modeling to begin picking up on at least some form of development in the same region(s) once in temporal range.

by **jmanley32** Thu May 10, 2018 8:04 pm

Quietace wrote:
rb924119 wrote:In terms of models, I'm really liking the GFS/FV3-GFS and will continue to ride with them. They make sense with the progged hemispheric and synoptic setup, as well as the theoretical result. As it stands now, I fully expect other modeling to begin picking up on at least some form of development in the same region(s) once in temporal range.

LMAO well we know how ace feels about a model I have never heard of. Is this weekend going to be a washout? Specifically Saturday morning? I need to know ASAP.

by **jmanley32** Thu May 10, 2018 8:42 pm

Wow first lightning show of the year, pretty impressive one! And one heck of a downpour.

by **Dtone** Thu May 10, 2018 8:46 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Wow first lightning show of the year, pretty impressive one! And one heck of a downpour.

Yes! Lots of lightning. Impressive t storms, Its been while.

by ak926 Thu May 10, 2018 8:52 pm

.34 here from the thunderstorm, lots of lightning

by **frank 638** Thu May 10, 2018 8:54 pm

Crazy lighting by me right now no rain yet

by **billg315** Thu May 10, 2018 8:55 pm

Lots of thunder here. Little rain. Lots of thunder.

by **jmanley32** Thu May 10, 2018 9:14 pm

Anyone know the forecast for Sat? I seen the forecasts but trust you all the most.

by **jmanley32** Thu May 10, 2018 9:55 pm

And GFS has or first fantasy land hurricane 978mb into tamp and up the east coast at 336 hrs lol, here we go ray!!

by **Math23x7** Thu May 10, 2018 11:15 pm

IMO, the highs on Mother's Day struggle to get out of the 40s.

by **sroc4** Fri May 11, 2018 7:43 am

rb924119 wrote:Scott!!! Well now it's officially a tracking party! Haha

Lol Ray. I’m still in my offseason. Not quite ready to start back yet. While I will continue to check in periodically there isn’t enough excitement yet.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri May 11, 2018 2:29 pm

Tomorrow does not look great. I think there will be a period of rain or thunderstorms in the early morning. There will be partial clearing, perhaps even sunshine, in the mid morning to early afternoon, before another round of possibly severe thunderstorms roll in late Saturday.

NNJ gets hit hard on the NAM tomorrow afternoon.

May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 2 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_36

May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 2 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_36

Sunday will be much of the same but more clouds and rain than Saturday (not severe).

by **skinsfan1177** Sat May 12, 2018 9:01 am

Wow close a a inch of rain overnight and now the sun is out should be interesting later on

by bluebythec Sat May 12, 2018 6:55 pm

ISSUED: 4:59 PM MAY. 12, 2018 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 85 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN DELAWARE THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL DELAWARE

KENT

IN NORTHERN DELAWARE

NEW CASTLE

IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE

SUSSEX

IN MARYLAND THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES

IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND

CAROLINE CECIL KENT
QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT

IN NEW JERSEY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY

ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN
CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER
OCEAN SALEM

by **amugs** Sun May 13, 2018 9:46 am

HAPPY MOTHERS DAY TO ALL THE MOMS HERE!!

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