Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event

Smitty623 wrote:SENJ, when do you think the heaviest snows will come through our area?

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Smitty, I'm not sold on tonight for us yet. But, if we do get a steady accumulating snow, the heaviest stuff should be late morning, just before the change over. In best case, we get a bit more of a thump sooner, maybe by 1 or 2 am, and a bit later of a change over, maybe 9 or 10 am, and we could pull down another 3-4", and then go basically straight to rain.

More likely I think is we don't squeeze a whole lot of snow out the sky tonight and the change to rain happens earlier.

TWC is going all schizo, changing its forecast every hour from no snow to accumulating 2-4" (either 1" tonight and 1-3" tomorrow am, or vice versa).

SENJsnowman wrote:It reached the coast...just barely flaking, but it also just got here...very early. We'll see if this early precip shield now builds north...

What was your final tally from last night/this morning SENJ?

CP, I would call it 3", but for official submission, I would say 2.75" was the highest measurement I could sign off on. A bit below what I thought we would get, but it snowed for much longer than I thought it would, and I got some of my beloved daytime snow.

For the year:

2", 1", 2.5", 2.75" = 8.25"

And fellow Seminole Quietace and I appreciate your nod to the 'Tally'.

billg315 wrote:I think many districts in NNJ are going to pull the trigger at the last minute on this. They’ll check the situation at 5 am and if the forecast hasn’t changed overnight, they’ll close.

Bill many have up here already it's the minimalist type superintendants who are non believers that wait. They gonna go with an early dismissal really?? 1 PM will be an absolute mess up here, you don't want that responsibility to go awry.
Anyway, it should an interesting day tomorrow.
Peeps remember sleet us counted as snow totals.

amugs wrote:

billg315 wrote:I think many districts in NNJ are going to pull the trigger at the last minute on this. They’ll check the situation at 5 am and if the forecast hasn’t changed overnight, they’ll close.

Bill many have up here already it's the minimalist type superintendants who are non believers that wait. They gonna go with an early dismissal really?? 1 PM will be an absolute mess up here, you don't want that responsibility to go awry.
Anyway, it should an interesting day tomorrow.
Peeps remember sleet us counted as snow totals.

Yep. The only real option tomorrow would be to close. Open late and it’s when things are getting bad, close early and things are already bad. Better safe than sorry I say.

hyde345 wrote:

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:The snow north of Trenton doesn't want to cross the Delaware. Wish Pennsylvania drivers would do the same. I think they get their driver's licenses from the bottom of a box of Cracker Jacks.

Massholes are the worst.

Bob, remember, G-dub came BACK to NJ from PA when he crossed.

And it looks like the radar just did the same. Looks like we are snowing a more steady now, but it's been about 90 min of virga so far, if it's even over. Still, WAAAY ahead of schedule, so...good sign.

I made this post on Facebook and I think it's worth repeating here:

"Wintry precipitation is on the way tomorrow. It looks like the snow will be coming into the area mid-morning tomorrow. It changes over to sleet early-mid afternoon and by evening, it is set to change to plain rain. The further north of the city you are, the more snow/sleet you will get.

Now, interestingly enough, the outcomes from the models are not too far off from what they were showing from the November 15th storm. As a refresher, that storm was predicted to change quickly to plain rain after brief snow/sleet. Instead, NYC had five hours of heavy snow, and two hours of sleet before the changeover to plain rain, causing a nightmare commute for many as the city was completely unprepared for the snow. Some vehicles, including school buses, were stranded for 10-12 hours! On the night of November 14th, models such as the 12-km NAM and 3-km NAM showed the quick changeover to plain rain with very little snow while the EURO and HRRR were showing the high end snow amounts (which came to fruition).

At the moment, those models (12-km/3-km NAM, HRRR, EURO) are developing along similar lines for tomorrow. The key differences: 1) The precipitation comes in mid-morning instead of early afternoon like the 11/15 event did. 2) The city is anticipating the wintry weather tomorrow.

Once it changes over to plain rain tomorrow evening, it should help to wash away at least some of the snow/ice and by the time it ends, temperatures in the city should be in the 40s. Some places a bit further north may not changeover to plain rain and will have quite a mess on their hands. But for NYC/LI, things should be cleared by Wednesday."

Radar shows snow overhead for the past 45 minutes. Nothing has reached the ground yet. Would be nice to get the dry air.out of the way for the main event Ina few hours.

Good post Mike. I noticed earlier that the HRRR was pretty snowy for my area. Hoping the colder solution wins out again.

Well I’m going to get ready for a day of nowcasting. See you all in the AM!

That was the best rgem run so far 3 to 4 in of snow for the city starting around 7 a.m. flipping to sleet around 1 p.m.

Bob, for me was 45-60 min of mostly virga, with some light flurries, then about 30-45 min of light flurries with some virga mixed in, and now a steady snow for about 10 min. Still light, but getting there... and again, with no rain forecast to hit till morn...

I hope things break like this for everybody tonight. With good timing, maybe we can all enjoy some heavy snow for longer and avoid the ice and slop mostly or altogether

Light-moderate snow falling. Sticking on cars, but not ground/roads 34*

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Smitty, where do you live?

26/9, clear skies and light north wind

Taffy, In Bayville.

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hyde345 wrote:26/9, clear skies and light north wind

Dew point at Albany is -3 Red Sox Suck -4 that's one strong and cold high pressure let's hope he can hold so we can maximize our snow potential today

School closings issued all over.

algae888 wrote:

hyde345 wrote:26/9, clear skies and light north wind

Dew point at Albany is -3 Red Sox Suck -4 that's one strong and cold high pressure let's hope he can hold so we can maximize our snow potential today

It really is. Down to 25/7 now.

28 degrees dew point of 5 my dew Point dropped 12 degrees in the last 3 hours it's going to be a while before the snow gets here

rb924119 wrote:I continue to believe the NWS is WAY too high with their forecast snowfall totals across the board, and would strongly caution everybody on this. Just my opinion, though.

They did leave themselves an out with that low end map of 1 inch or less.That was listed as "if the snow changes to sleet and rain much earlier".LOL, well THAT clarifies things.

algae888 wrote:28 degrees dew point of 5 my dew Point dropped 12 degrees in the last 3 hours it's going to be a while before the snow gets here

That 10 AM start the NAM mentioned yesterday might be right Al.

billg315 wrote:I think many districts in NNJ are going to pull the trigger at the last minute on this. They’ll check the situation at 5 am and if the forecast hasn’t changed overnight, they’ll close.

Chester NY schools were closed at 6:30 PM last night.A good move because even if we get a later start to this at 10 AM, they would still have to get home.Looks like it will start later to me looking at that radar.

My dew point dropped another five degrees to zero the bad news is that it's already freezing rain in Philly and South Jersey that warm nose is going to be tough to keep back at 700mb. it really has nothing to stop it coming north

Irish wrote:School closings issued all over.

We have delayed here in hazlet

I’m with you rb. As I said yesterday the only way I could see it hitting some of the higher numbers they put out there was if we got an earlier start and the snow hung in longer. Don’t see it. Radar so far is consistent with where the modeling went yesterday which is to say this isn’t going to start in most places until 8 or 9. That combined with what I think will be a quick changeover to sleet makes me (as I did yesterday) question some of those higher snow totals NWS put out there.

I suppose it’s possible if the snow gets heavy quick around 9 or 10 we could get there but it will really have to dump on us for a couple hours before the sleet sets in..