Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event

Irish wrote:School closings issued all over.

We have delayed here in hazlet

I’m with you rb. As I said yesterday the only way I could see it hitting some of the higher numbers they put out there was if we got an earlier start and the snow hung in longer. Don’t see it. Radar so far is consistent with where the modeling went yesterday which is to say this isn’t going to start in most places until 8 or 9. That combined with what I think will be a quick changeover to sleet makes me (as I did yesterday) question some of those higher snow totals NWS put out there.

I suppose it’s possible if the snow gets heavy quick around 9 or 10 we could get there but it will really have to dump on us for a couple hours before the sleet sets in..

And i have the same concern as Al. Some rain and frz rain are already pretty far north. In the November storm the first thing that caught my attention was how long the cold/snow hung in around DC and Philly. Looks like they’re going to changeover more quickly this time.

All of that said, nothing has happened so far that is drastically out of line with what most models showed yesterday so let’s just wait and see where the day takes us.

32 with real feel of 22. Winds are whipping 16mph and steady from ENE. Dewpoint 13.

31* and wind is whipping here too. Much windier than I had expected. Here is the radar. Snow is starting to fill into our south and west. To the naked eye it looks very similar to how the NAM had it progressing on yesterday’s runs:

Nws still keeping warnings and amounts as is, interesting.

27 with moderate snow. About an inch so far.

Current radar. Largely filled in now:

Lets see how long the cold air holds. Radar looks ok to.me

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/northeast_loop.php

Light snow has just started here at 7:15. Temp 30*

Ohh I know the schol systems here are pissed to wake up to just cloudy. The time delay was for real still looks like it could be a few hours or more for nyc area. A early dismissal might have been more fitting if this holds out till 12 or so. I like Al's last post gives me hope.

algae888 wrote:Currently 27° -1 dew point which I'm astonished by Radar really blossoming now. I think areas north and west of New York City even my area which is close to the city is going to see mainly Frozen precipitation from this system while the upper levels will get too warm for snow there's no way the low-level cold is going to be scoured out so I'm expecting snow sleet freezing rain dry slot and then a Squall line with rain as the front moves through late tonight and early Wednesday  with the cold front. Fun tracking this 1

Didn't you say earlier this morning you do not see it staying frozen very long as warmth will win out but now total opposite? I mean of course this post sounds great but not sure how to keep track of things lol

jmanley32 wrote:Ohh I know the schol systems here are pissed to wake up to just cloudy.  The time delay was for real still looks like it could be a few hours or more for nyc area.  A early dismissal might have been more fitting if this holds out till 12 or so.  I like Al's last post gives me hope.

I don’t think early dismissals were the way to go with this because the worst travel will likely be between 10 am and 3 or 4 pm. It’s just one of those weird timing storms where closing even when roads are clear at the morning rush might make sense rather than having to deal with sending people home in a mess (like a November).

NWS dropped my total from 4-6” to 3-5”. I still think that’s overdone. I’m now expected 1-3” with a long bout of sleet/frz rain here. This assumes I don’t get a burst of really heavy (1-2” per hour snow) right before the changeover.

billg315 wrote:NWS dropped my total from 4-6” to 3-5”. I still think that’s overdone. I’m now expected 1-3” with a long bout of sleet/frz rain here. This assumes I don’t get a burst of really heavy (2” per hour snow) right before the changeover.

Yes, this much later start will cost us in snow totals.They were honking 5 AM 5 AM all day yesterday.That being said, radar filling in fast with snow sleet line in Central Jersey already.19 degrees here, very calm.Should start very soon.

Nice coating on the ground here. Been a light to moderate snow since about 7:15 or so.

It's already mixed with sleet here. There's warm transport much more aggressive than modeled right up to I78. I believe the surface will remain below freezing for a while. In terms of snow accumulation probably about done here; really never started to be honest.

algae888 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:Currently 27° -1 dew point which I'm astonished by Radar really blossoming now. I think areas north and west of New York City even my area which is close to the city is going to see mainly Frozen precipitation from this system while the upper levels will get too warm for snow there's no way the low-level cold is going to be scoured out so I'm expecting snow sleet freezing rain dry slot and then a Squall line with rain as the front moves through late tonight and early Wednesday  with the cold front. Fun tracking this 1

Didn't you say earlier this morning you do not see it staying frozen very long as warmth will win out but now total opposite? I mean of course this post sounds great but not sure how to keep track of things lol

This morning's response was more in regards to snow sleet and the upper levels my thinking that was we'll see prolonged freezing rain and then dry slot. Temps and dew points are surprisingly low especially dew points for our area and areas north and west

Ahhh, see heehaw he said he is already mixing and saw almost no accumulation and he is way inland in PA, not good.

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:Currently 27° -1 dew point which I'm astonished by Radar really blossoming now. I think areas north and west of New York City even my area which is close to the city is going to see mainly Frozen precipitation from this system while the upper levels will get too warm for snow there's no way the low-level cold is going to be scoured out so I'm expecting snow sleet freezing rain dry slot and then a Squall line with rain as the front moves through late tonight and early Wednesday  with the cold front. Fun tracking this 1

Didn't you say earlier this morning you do not see it staying frozen very long as warmth will win out but now total opposite? I mean of course this post sounds great but not sure how to keep track of things lol

This morning's response was more in regards to snow sleet and the upper levels my thinking that was we'll see prolonged freezing rain and then dry slot. Temps and dew points are surprisingly low especially dew points for our area and areas north and west

Ahhh, see heehaw he said he is already mixing and saw almost no accumulation and he is way inland in PA, not good.

Depends now on how that snow/sleet line stays in Central Jersey for a while.We lost 3 hours of snow time with this later start.

Dew point much lower than forecast in the NYC metro. Currently 27.8/9 on Long Island. That will slow the warming process at the surface. May mean prolonged ice or ZR

aiannone wrote:Dew point much lower than forecast in the NYC metro. Currently 27.8/9 on Long Island. That will slow the warming process at the surface. May mean prolonged ice or ZR

Does this have the potential to be a bad ice storm or thinking mainly sleet? 8 hrs of freezing rain would be horrible.

19.0°

I just don't enjoy tracking these slop fests anymore. I suppose there's just been to many of them in the HV this year. They're starting to wear on me, and freezing rain, no thanks. My hunch is that's the majority of what we see from this abomination of a winter storm.

29* steady light snow. Just a dusting so far. Dew point is 15*.

billg315 wrote:29* steady light snow. Just a dusting so far. Dew point is 15*.

With the dewpoint that low it will be interesting to see how low the surface temp drops when the precip picks up.