April 2020 Observations and Discussion

SENJsnowman wrote:We had snowflakes at Exit 80 GSP for about 3 minutes today, around 11:30 am or so. At least I think they were snowflakes...has been a while since I seen one so it's hard to be sure...

LOL yes earlier this morning I went out and I could have sworn I saw a few tiny flakes. I am adding .000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 to my yearly total lol

Yes, we had them for about two minutes in Bloomfield at 1:45pm. I thought they were blossoms until I saw them melting on the deck.

Mother nature loves irony.

Hail or sleet? Not sure.

I'm guessing sleet. And blowing and drifting sleet at that.

I have never seen snow at 45-47 degrees as I witnessed today 3x. Winds were howling today. A February/early March day today. Cold as icebtonight!!!!!!

Flakes here too around 1:30 pm but of course no cover. The wind was blowing it sideways. Lasted about a half hour. A few more minutes here and there. Wind was bracing. Two trees down.

billg315 wrote:Hail or sleet? Not sure.

And the answer is: Graupel. Which is effectively a little bit of snow, a little bit of sleet, a little bit of hail and a little bit of rock and roll.

Also, one reporting station in Sussex County yesterday reported 0.7” of snow. Which in one April event brought them about my entire seasonal total.

HIGH WIND WATCH just issued for much of the area with gusts up to 70 mph possible Monday.

Latest Euro:

SoulSingMG wrote:HIGH WIND WATCH just issued for much of the area with gusts up to 70 mph possible Monday.

Latest Euro:

Damnit!! My computer had a fault and you beat me to it LOL, ya you do not often see a 70mph HWW, this system will be potent!  We need some excitement lol Soul how long do those winds stay over the area or is it a quick line or ST like that?

CTZ009-010-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-176>179-120900-
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0001.200413T1000Z-200413T2200Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-
Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
412 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 70 mph
possible.

* WHERE...New York City and adjacent suburbs of New York and New
Jersey, and coastal southwest Connecticut west of the New Haven
area.

* WHEN...From Monday morning through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power
lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

GFS has 850mb winds well over 100mph! Wow, so take 1/4 off that and you have 75mph. Sorry wind man is getting excited lol, had no idea there was go be a storm, and since theres not one iota of excitement to be had this will be interesting, doesnt usually play out but we will see.

It’s definitely going to rock ‘n roll for at least a few hours on Monday (late AM—afternoon). Check out Upton’s take in their latest forecast discussion...

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Could see some leading bands of WAA showers Sunday night ahead of the approaching storm, while S winds slowly increase and temps remain steady or slowly rise. Strongest winds expected late AM into the afternoon on Monday as an 85-90kt H9 LLJ develops. GFS/NAM MOS guidance winds at KJFK both show sustained winds over 40 kt by 18Z Mon, some of the highest ever seen there outside of tropical cyclones. Looking at wind gusts, model soundings show typical model biases in play, with the NAM too inverted over land and the GFS too well mixed. Split the difference via a 2:1 NAM/GFS blend, as the NAM shows a little more focused LLJ toward the coast, and modified temps/mixing heights using MOS guidance hourly temps. This yields wind gusts 65-70 mph at the coast, and as high as 60-65 mph inland, mainly the higher elevations and exposed areas such as along the Hudson River. Can not totally rule out isolated 75-80 mph gusts across Long Island and coastal SE CT.

SoulSingMG wrote:It’s definitely going to rock ‘n roll for at least a few hours on Monday (late AM—afternoon). Check out Upton’s take in their latest forecast discussion...

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Could see some leading bands of WAA showers Sunday night ahead of the approaching storm, while S winds slowly increase and temps remain steady or slowly rise. Strongest winds expected late AM into the afternoon on Monday as an 85-90kt H9 LLJ develops. GFS/NAM MOS guidance winds at KJFK both show sustained winds over 40 kt by 18Z Mon, some of the highest ever seen there outside of tropical cyclones. Looking at wind gusts, model soundings show typical model biases in play, with the NAM too inverted over land and the GFS too well mixed. Split the difference via a 2:1 NAM/GFS blend, as the NAM shows a little more focused LLJ toward the coast, and modified temps/mixing heights using MOS guidance hourly temps. This yields wind gusts 65-70 mph at the coast, and as high as 60-65 mph inland, mainly the higher elevations and exposed areas such as along the Hudson River. Can not totally rule out isolated 75-80 mph gusts across Long Island and coastal SE CT.

Wow, on the part you highlighted but also on the last part where possible hurricane force wind gusts are possible. All you need is a few hours to cause a lot of problems. My gueess is a 6-8 hr period of high winds with the highest maybe lasting 3-4 hrs. I'll be taking a trip down to the water front hudson river, pretty sure I will be social distancing enough LOL, can almost assure you no one else will be there lol

Today, the calm before the storm.

Happy Easter to all buona Pasqua I know this is going to be our normal Easter .we have to stay strong and positive we will get through this and have our lives back to normal please stay safe everyone and enjoy ur day

Interesting 72 hours of weather ahead. The storm system tomorrow will be accompanied by heavy rain, very strong sustained winds with damaging gusts, and then at some point probably a line or two of possibly severe thunderstorms.
Then as cold air sinks in over the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night, another disturbance swings by along the stalled front and we could see some light snow late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Some models even hint that just south of here across central-southern New Jersey the snow could be steady enough to accumulate on some surfaces.
Either way temperatures Wednesday morning should be almost 30-35 degrees colder than they will be late tomorrow morning.

Everybody have a good Easter as best we can make of it at least it's nice out. Tomorrow is gonna be crazy with possible 70mph gusts for a good portion of the day then severe storms with potential for more wind damage and possible tornadoes. Albeit we are in marginal territory I have seen bad storms happen still. As for what bill said I do not want the cod after 35 degrees lower would be 25 no thank you. And no snow!!

HAPPY EASTER EVERYONE!! Hope you all are safe and healthy!
JMAN - IF this comes to fruition this is going to rival some of SAndy's winds (NOT SAYING THIS IS SANDY!!)

amugs wrote:HAPPY EASTER EVERYONE!! Hope you all are safe and healthy!
JMAN - IF this comes to fruition this is going to rival some of SAndy's winds (NOT SAYING THIS IS SANDY!!)

Yeah we seen this before, lets see if it actually happens, of course its not Sandy.

Many HWW were converted to Wind advisory, some warnings have been issued but 50-60mph down by cape may 60 to 70. Should be uptons decision soon.

If 3KM is right winds start ramping up late tonight around 1am and last till about 6 or 7pm tomorrow, 850mb level winds around 80 to 100kts! I know that doesnt translate to surface but even half is over 65mph.

jmanley32 wrote:Many HWW were converted to Wind advisory, some warnings have been issued but 50-60mph down by cape may 60 to 70. Should be uptons decision soon.

You’ll be getting your High Wind Warning any minute now ;-)

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Many HWW were converted to Wind advisory, some warnings have been issued but 50-60mph down by cape may 60 to 70. Should be uptons decision soon.

You’ll be getting your High Wind Warning any minute now ;-)

I just noticed, when did you move? I was gonna ask you if you wanted to go thrill seeking at the hudson river, should be wild and as I said no one around LOL

12z Euro, widespread 70-80mph wind gusts

Sanchize06 wrote:12z Euro, widespread 70-80mph wind gusts

Holy crow, I am honestly taking the Euro with a grain, we will get high winds but the Euro nearly almost always overdoes it, is there something different this time that would suggest otherwise?

Sanchize06 wrote:12z Euro, widespread 70-80mph wind gusts

Huh, thats 010z Tuesday which is what 5am? I thought this was only a monday thing?

Sanchize06 wrote:12z Euro, widespread 70-80mph wind gusts

Tomorrow looks horrid. 1-2" of rain and 50+ mph wind gusts. Not buying into anything higher than 50-55 mph right now but even that is quite windy

I think the Euro is probably too widespread with 75mph winds, probably more isolated for those gusts. Definitely all models support for 60-70 mph wind gusts though