Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

by **Snow88** Sat Dec 19, 2020 3:08 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Watch December 30th to January 5th

Looks like another block north of us will develop in part due to the SSW event Mugs has posted about. On top of that, the Pacific looks a little better. Not as many waves crashing into the west coast as the PNA ridge tries to go poleward. Let’s see if this pattern gets delayed until the middle of January or if the New Years time frame is legit.

Euro and GFS has a storm in the 26th -30th period.

Very stormy times ahead with the LA Nina dying.

by **heehaw453** Sat Dec 19, 2020 3:23 pm

Snow88 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Watch December 30th to January 5th

Looks like another block north of us will develop in part due to the SSW event Mugs has posted about. On top of that, the Pacific looks a little better. Not as many waves crashing into the west coast as the PNA ridge tries to go poleward. Let’s see if this pattern gets delayed until the middle of January or if the New Years time frame is legit.

Euro and GFS has a storm in the 26th -30th period.

Very stormy times ahead with the LA Nina dying.

Yes that last week of December could be interesting if the below is true based on today's 12Z EPS. One thing seems clear to me right now this is not last year's winter...

Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!) - Page 10 Euro5018

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 19, 2020 3:36 pm

Ok, my snow senses are tingling for that day 8-10 period. Referencing Scott’s earlier post about the heights amplifying in the North Atlantic warming us up, I think we may actually want to see those North Atlantic heights amplify as much as possible. I think our anafrontal event on Day 7 may already be dead at fast glance, but it may very well be the precursor to a MUCH BIGGER event shortly after. So, we may have to eat a day/night of 50-60° with a wind driven rain and high wind threat (Jman, you got your ears on, son?) both before and after the front go through on Day 7, but it may also serve to set up our west-based PSEUDO NAO block (displaced equatorward of a classic NAO block). Oh boy, I’ve got some digging to do, but right now I’m legit actually kind of excited after seeing the 12z EPS.

This is also EXACTLY how Stella happened, if I recall correctly. Mike/Math, can you confirm, or anybody? I’ve gotta get back to work haha

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 19, 2020 4:11 pm

Nevermind, I confirmed lol

Five days prior to Stella:

Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!) - Page 10 A6848d10

Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!) - Page 10 Bacbcd10

Our Day 4:

Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!) - Page 10 315aa710

Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!) - Page 10 6288b810

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 19, 2020 5:00 pm

Snow88 wrote:New GFS has 80+ gusts for NYC

Wicked front

From 50s and 60s to 20s on Christmas Day

WTH? Seriously? Okay, I was going to be very depressed for a rainy xmas eve but if wind is go be exciting for me anyways that go be something for me to track. Can anyone post Euro wind maps? Or maybe wait till its closer they always overdo it, if it shows 80mph on GFS Euro prolly shows 125mph lol

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 19, 2020 5:03 pm

rb924119 wrote:Ok, my snow senses are tingling for that day 8-10 period. Referencing Scott’s earlier post about the heights amplifying in the North Atlantic warming us up, I think we may actually want to see those North Atlantic heights amplify as much as possible. I think our anafrontal event on Day 7 may already be dead at fast glance, but it may very well be the precursor to a MUCH BIGGER event shortly after. So, we may have to eat a day/night of 50-60° with a wind driven rain and high wind threat (Jman, you got your ears on, son?) both before and after the front go through on Day 7, but it may also serve to set up our west-based PSEUDO NAO block (displaced equatorward of a classic NAO block). Oh boy, I’ve got some digging to do, but right now I’m legit actually kind of excited after seeing the 12z EPS.

This is also EXACTLY how Stella happened, if I recall correctly. Mike/Math, can you confirm, or anybody? I’ve gotta get back to work haha

Son? LOL I am older kimosabi, yes I just been catching up havent seen any maps, can someone post, I wanna be lazy lol plus dont have euro priviledges, plus we are talking winds froma front, 6 days out? I dunno that that will pan out.

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 19, 2020 5:08 pm

Last thing anyone needs is the power out on xmas even/day. The GFS aint playing though on that front.

by **amugs** Sat Dec 19, 2020 5:18 pm

Don't sleep on a the back side - it is one heck of an arctic front peeps - EOS keeps slowing this down and if it does it a few more times then it may be very doable for snow on XMass mroning

The trend is your friend if you want a storm to phase earlier and bring white #Christmas hopes to a lot of people in the Eastern US.

Wild to see these big shifts west in just a roll forward of 3 days.

Tells us its far from set in stone and the trend is key to watch. #snow pic.twitter.com/2fBSZ83JwO
— BAMWX (@bamwxcom) December 19, 2020

by **amugs** Sat Dec 19, 2020 5:31 pm

And look e see - close here - need a few more tweaks and it may happen - now its not a storm that will produce inches of know no BUT flakes flying on Xmas morning is a feat!!

Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!) - Page 10 Image.png.3af3651e8573492980f9e2bbe4950fbe

Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!) - Page 10 Image.png.3af3651e8573492980f9e2bbe4950fbe

by **sroc4** Sat Dec 19, 2020 5:54 pm

There are like 28 pieces to the Xmas puzzle and we are 6-7days out. This will change MANY more times between now and Tuesday Wed time frame. There is no way anything we are seeing is close to the final dance.

by **amugs** Sat Dec 19, 2020 6:38 pm

sroc4 wrote:There are like 28 pieces to the Xmas puzzle and we are 6-7days out. This will change MANY more times between now and Tuesday Wed time frame. There is no way anything we are seeing is close to the final dance.

Absolutely we have two systems to work through BUT the GEFS is listening to us SROC - little mire SW and we should be in better shape - also the temps aren't soaring on tis latest run to 60 but to 50 range - some may poo poo but it 60 would be sinful 50 or into the mid 40's is doable with a few more tweaks - time will tell so..... WE TRACK!

Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!) - Page 10 1608876000-Ulbq00MQrx4

Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!) - Page 10 1608876000-Ulbq00MQrx4

by **amugs** Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:41 pm

Nice % chance here for Xmas

Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!) - Page 10 20201220

by **heehaw453** Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:08 am

This doesn't have a great PAC look, but the Atlantic side (Greenland) of things has me very intrigued. This kind of look won't render a huge digging trough in the east coast, but that block could allow some weak wave to stall and then something bigger happens.

Watch that last week of December...

Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!) - Page 10 Gefs14

by **Snow88** Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:24 am

Teleconnections look great moving forward.

AO is crashing

by **amugs** Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:53 am

Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!) - Page 10 Epr6_qiXIAMO7l8?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

There's your SSWE

by **heehaw453** Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:33 am

This Arctic Oscillation teleconnection matters a lot for wintry patterns. Especially for the coastal plain and the I95. A significant dip in the values is very correlated to wintry patterns. Does that mean a big storm with a foot of snow? No, but frequent snow chances with more sustained cold. If the PAC starts to cooperate then bigger storm chances can be on the table.

Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!) - Page 10 Ao12

by **amugs** Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:46 am

Great paper that shows the correlation between a spike in the AO and big east coast snowstorms

Fun fact - we showed in a recent paper that the Northeast US is at greatest risk for severe winter weather 5 days following a spike in Arctic temperatures/geopotential heights: https://t.co/1MjGyAOGVF. This week's epic Nor'easter was preceded 5 days by an Arctic temperature spike pic.twitter.com/49K5Sjl3Lb
— Judah Cohen (@judah47) December 20, 2020

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:50 pm

amugs wrote:

There's your SSWE

With everything I’m seeing and reading, this is going to be THE story after Christmas. New Years into January has the potential produce a Godzilla. Hopefully one that we all can cash in one Smile

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 20, 2020 2:04 pm

12z ECMWF (left) vs. 0z ECMWF (right) valid Christmas eve. 12z run is most in line with the large EPS member clusters. pic.twitter.com/U6t7NRXRyh
— Ethan Sacoransky (@blizzardof96) December 20, 2020

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 20, 2020 2:05 pm

Normally models are too fast with SSWE's. Let's keep an eye on this https://t.co/lZkTNtSdnw
— Francesco Paparatto (@nj_strong_wx) December 20, 2020

by **SoulSingMG** Sun Dec 20, 2020 4:05 pm

The wind threat around Christmas Day looks legit. However, one of my fav METS out of CT mentioned when there’s snow cover, it keeps the temperature cooler ~ 100 ft above the surface, helping to inhibit stronger winds from mixing down.

Any of our more seasoned members on here care to comment on that? I hadn’t heard this before.

by **jmanley32** Sun Dec 20, 2020 6:44 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
amugs wrote:

There's your SSWE

With everything I’m seeing and reading, this is going to be THE story after Christmas. New Years into January has the potential produce a Godzilla. Hopefully one that we all can cash in one

Two godzillas regardless of if its coastal plain or not included would be quite something before or just into January. I know its happened b4 but not in recent years.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:35 pm

The -NAO that is forecasted to ensue later this month gives me all the feels inside

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:37 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:The wind threat around Christmas Day looks legit. However, one of my fav METS out of CT mentioned when there’s snow cover, it keeps the temperature cooler ~ 100 ft above the surface, helping to inhibit stronger winds from mixing down.

Any of our more seasoned members on here care to comment on that? I hadn’t heard this before.

Tagging @isotherm, @weatherbob, @rb924119

by **jmanley32** Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:22 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:The wind threat around Christmas Day looks legit. However, one of my fav METS out of CT mentioned when there’s snow cover, it keeps the temperature cooler ~ 100 ft above the surface, helping to inhibit stronger winds from mixing down.

Any of our more seasoned members on here care to comment on that? I hadn’t heard this before.

Tagging @isotherm, @weatherbob, @rb924119

I am shocked Frank, you are def a seasoned member, you started the forum. I have never heard this either, but isnt it supposed to be warm ahead of this front? The winds crank for 6-12 hrs or so, CMC has winds upwards of 70-80mph, which is overdone unless this thing really is abnormal.

by **jmanley32** Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:25 pm

If Euro is correct too Christmas eve/morning could be dark for many, which even for me would be sad.

by **rb924119** Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:24 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:The wind threat around Christmas Day looks legit. However, one of my fav METS out of CT mentioned when there’s snow cover, it keeps the temperature cooler ~ 100 ft above the surface, helping to inhibit stronger winds from mixing down.

Any of our more seasoned members on here care to comment on that? I hadn’t heard this before.

First off, I agree 100% with Jman - Frank, you are definitely in the “more seasoned” crowd lol

Anyway, and this will be in reply to Jman as well, conceptually this would have merit, in my opinion, as a cooler surface in relation to warming lower- and mid-levels would help to enhance an inversion (think of a sounding, temperature increasing with height which is a very stable situation and therefore inhibits mixing.....the atmosphere would already be in thermal balance because cold, more dense air would be beneath warmer, less dense air). HOWEVER, from the little bit I’ve actually seen this front looks to have a decent convective component to it. Even though it would likely be elevated convection further north (I.e. air would be forced to be lifted from the level of the inversion, as remember, anything beneath the inversion is thermally balanced already and would resist ascent), it would still probably be able to mix some of the winds down from a SCREAMING low-level jet as the squall line blew through thanks to the enhanced vertical motion associated with the convection itself. Then, once the front goes through and the inversion mixes out, you’d probably end up with pretty gusty northwesterlies like we normally see. Remember the crazy front from February 2017 that brought winter back, where it was in the 60s and 70s area wide and then the front came through with wind gusts of like 70-something? Very similar setup from what I’ve seen, though with a somewhat cooler preceding airmass.

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