Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

sroc4 wrote:300 mb jet streak setting up.  Pretty strong.  Position still a bit west but its on the move.  

Woah, check out all that upper level divergence in NJ

VERY large flakes here in Kinnelon 650ft elev heavily snowing 28 deg

jmanley32 wrote:GM all, just got up its beens snowing moderately for at least a while got a coating, roads mainly wet though, the edges are starting to fill in.  25 degrees,  a bit colder than forecasted which obviously bodes well.

I noticed that it was really cold across the tri-state this morning too. Not as warm as I thought it would be.

heehaw453 wrote:Areas in and around Philly towards Southern Bucks/Montgomery Counties are already passing 1/2' of snow.  Those areas in Southern Bucks may obtain close to 1' IMO.

That is wild. Already a bust! (in a good way)

SENJsnowman wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Warm tongue at 850's (1 mile ASL) now popping up in SE NJ.

Maybe popping up on the radar now, but’s it’s been my reality since 7 am. Is it possible to laugh and cry simultaneously?

SkiSeadooJoe wrote:Right Snowman, its actually feezing rain sleet mix now by me, got a coating OTG and never really got more than 15 mins of all snow falling, just does not want to deliver the goods down here

Both of you are in a tough location, unfortunately. The mid-levels have not been your friends this year. Honestly, I'm surprised more areas to the north aren't mixing yet given where the mid-level lows are.

radar filling in nicely from south to north. amazing that southern areas already have half foot. side roads are coating over completely now.

Steady moderate snow here 24*

22* with moderate to heavy snow now falling.

aiannone wrote:

how far north does this get? nyc area and LI gonna get into that ?

Upton Disco:

The NAM which for a couple of days had been the most aggressive
of the models with QPF, but came more line. However, latest 06Z
run has ramped back up with the potential for warning level
snows at the coast should this materialize. While this solution
run against the grain, latest SPC mesoanalysis from 300 mb shows
strong upper divergence across the area. This will have to be
watched closely for potential banding, especially with increased
thermal forcing ahead of a frontal wave moving off the Mid
Atlantic coast today. A short-fused warning is unlikely, but
not out of the question.

For now, this continues to look like a prolonged event with
light to occasionally moderate snow. There could be a period of
heavy snow near the coast late this morning into this
afternoon. Have stayed with winter weather advisories, as the
expected snowfall through the next 12H is less than 6 inches
(additional periods of mainly light snow are expected tonight
into Friday).

As for ptype, this should be mainly an all snow event with some
mixing across LI and the NY/NJ metro late this afternoon.

24* and 2 inches of snow so far coming down moderately

large area of 20-30 dbz snows moving in!

The 700 mb temperature advection (warm air on the move at 10k) is telling us there will be intense precipitation especially in the light pink in between the darker pink.

SkiSeadooJoe wrote:Right Snowman, its actually feezing rain sleet mix now by me, got a coating OTG and never really got more than 15 mins of all snow falling, just does not want to deliver the goods down here

I've already reviewed my "How to still act like a grown up when experiencing crushed childhood dreams" handbook this morning and like on page 3 it says "Fuhgetaboutit and move on your with your day SENJ!" Ha ha...not sure if I'm going to abide by that or not yet.

We had a nice 7-10 hour window for a huge event. But it kinda relied on getting a huge running start, which all the while seemed like a lock. Wow. I must have said that ("locked in to a front end thump") 3-4 times on here in the past 48 hrs. SENJ, you tool.  

Sorry Ocean County Coasties, this one's on me.

21.7/20.5

Heavy snow! 35 dbz bands incoming!

amugs wrote:

Look at all that warm convective moisture boyz - that what's coming up this way  greater than modelled once again!

Juicy juice radar peeps - enjoy and dont doubt the convection notion of what happens down south and the moisture fetch from the GOM. Overperformer for sure = BOOOMMM!!!
The models had a hard time and always do with such. Enjoy as I go back to virtual teaching. Harped on this all last night.

heehaw453 wrote:21.7/20.5

Heavy snow!  35 dbz bands incoming!

amugs wrote:

amugs wrote:

Look at all that warm convective moisture boyz - that what's coming up this way  greater than modelled once again!

Juicy juice radar peeps - enjoy and dont doubt the convection notion of what happens down south and the moisture fetch from the GOM. Overperformer for sure = BOOOMMM!!!
The models had a hard time and always do with such. Enjoy as I go back to virtual teaching. Harped on this all last night.

Yes, kudos. Great call there guy

Definitely under a heavy band here. Heaviest snow of the morning now falling. It's blitzing snow out there.

Flakes increasing in size. starting to stack up now. Good call Mugs!

This is 3"/hour stuff. No joke

Snow has started here at 9 33 am.

Building on what Frank said above, the temperatures (at the surface) have definitely been colder this morning than I anticipated. I started to creep up into the mid-20s before the snow started to come down but am back down to 22* right now. Figured I'd be at least upper 20s most of the morning.

700mb fronto - lookin' good near heehaw land

This band the NAM showed a couple of days ago and I displayed in my write-up is pretty close to reality.

Frank_Wx wrote:

Check out this band of 700mb frontogenesis the NAM tracks from south to north across PA, NJ and NYC. This band has the potential to drop 3-4" of snow in 1 HOUR.

COME TO POPPPA MELLOW YELLOW!!!!
NE Trajectory = a KABOOMM!! 1-2+" SNOWFALL RATES IN THESE

Nice steady snow up here in Hopatcong. Already over an inch and rapidly approaching 2.

If the heaviest of this stays just to my south, that's totally cool. I still do well up here and it's gorgeous to watch. Not to mention I still had 12 + inches on the ground when this thing started.

I hope everyone cashes in!

Frank_Wx wrote:This is 3"/hour stuff. No joke

qnd headed right this way, bring it. This has been a good year for NYC metro and NNJ, this year totally makes up for the past 2 yrs.

Amici...

I am speechless