Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
sroc4 wrote:300 mb jet streak setting up. Pretty strong. Position still a bit west but its on the move.
Woah, check out all that upper level divergence in NJ
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
VERY large flakes here in Kinnelon 650ft elev heavily snowing 28 deg
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
jmanley32 wrote:GM all, just got up its beens snowing moderately for at least a while got a coating, roads mainly wet though, the edges are starting to fill in. 25 degrees, a bit colder than forecasted which obviously bodes well.
I noticed that it was really cold across the tri-state this morning too. Not as warm as I thought it would be.
heehaw453 wrote:Areas in and around Philly towards Southern Bucks/Montgomery Counties are already passing 1/2' of snow. Those areas in Southern Bucks may obtain close to 1' IMO.
That is wild. Already a bust! (in a good way)
SkiSeadooJoe wrote:Right Snowman, its actually feezing rain sleet mix now by me, got a coating OTG and never really got more than 15 mins of all snow falling, just does not want to deliver the goods down here
Both of you are in a tough location, unfortunately. The mid-levels have not been your friends this year. Honestly, I'm surprised more areas to the north aren't mixing yet given where the mid-level lows are.
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
radar filling in nicely from south to north. amazing that southern areas already have half foot. side roads are coating over completely now.
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Steady moderate snow here 24*
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Upton Disco:
The NAM which for a couple of days had been the most aggressive
of the models with QPF, but came more line. However, latest 06Z
run has ramped back up with the potential for warning level
snows at the coast should this materialize. While this solution
run against the grain, latest SPC mesoanalysis from 300 mb shows
strong upper divergence across the area. This will have to be
watched closely for potential banding, especially with increased
thermal forcing ahead of a frontal wave moving off the Mid
Atlantic coast today. A short-fused warning is unlikely, but
not out of the question.
For now, this continues to look like a prolonged event with
light to occasionally moderate snow. There could be a period of
heavy snow near the coast late this morning into this
afternoon. Have stayed with winter weather advisories, as the
expected snowfall through the next 12H is less than 6 inches
(additional periods of mainly light snow are expected tonight
into Friday).
As for ptype, this should be mainly an all snow event with some
mixing across LI and the NY/NJ metro late this afternoon.
The NAM which for a couple of days had been the most aggressive
of the models with QPF, but came more line. However, latest 06Z
run has ramped back up with the potential for warning level
snows at the coast should this materialize. While this solution
run against the grain, latest SPC mesoanalysis from 300 mb shows
strong upper divergence across the area. This will have to be
watched closely for potential banding, especially with increased
thermal forcing ahead of a frontal wave moving off the Mid
Atlantic coast today. A short-fused warning is unlikely, but
not out of the question.
For now, this continues to look like a prolonged event with
light to occasionally moderate snow. There could be a period of
heavy snow near the coast late this morning into this
afternoon. Have stayed with winter weather advisories, as the
expected snowfall through the next 12H is less than 6 inches
(additional periods of mainly light snow are expected tonight
into Friday).
As for ptype, this should be mainly an all snow event with some
mixing across LI and the NY/NJ metro late this afternoon.
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
24* and 2 inches of snow so far coming down moderately
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
large area of 20-30 dbz snows moving in!
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
SkiSeadooJoe wrote:Right Snowman, its actually feezing rain sleet mix now by me, got a coating OTG and never really got more than 15 mins of all snow falling, just does not want to deliver the goods down here
I've already reviewed my "How to still act like a grown up when experiencing crushed childhood dreams" handbook this morning and like on page 3 it says "Fuhgetaboutit and move on your with your day SENJ!" Ha ha...not sure if I'm going to abide by that or not yet.
We had a nice 7-10 hour window for a huge event. But it kinda relied on getting a huge running start, which all the while seemed like a lock. Wow. I must have said that ("locked in to a front end thump") 3-4 times on here in the past 48 hrs. SENJ, you tool.
![Rolling Eyes](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_rolleyes.gif)
Sorry Ocean County Coasties, this one's on me.
![Embarassed](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_redface.gif)
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
21.7/20.5
Heavy snow! 35 dbz bands incoming!
Heavy snow! 35 dbz bands incoming!
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
amugs wrote:
Look at all that warm convective moisture boyz - that what's coming up this way greater than modelled once again!
Juicy juice radar peeps - enjoy and dont doubt the convection notion of what happens down south and the moisture fetch from the GOM. Overperformer for sure = BOOOMMM!!!
The models had a hard time and always do with such. Enjoy as I go back to virtual teaching. Harped on this all last night.
![Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 8 CODNEXLAB-NEXRAD-DIX-N0Q-20210218-1359-12-100.gif.9ace4c75a9ae0f78cc035cbe6e684ac1](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_02/CODNEXLAB-NEXRAD-DIX-N0Q-20210218-1359-12-100.gif.9ace4c75a9ae0f78cc035cbe6e684ac1.gif)
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
heehaw453 wrote:21.7/20.5
Heavy snow! 35 dbz bands incoming!
![hurryup](/users/3017/35/58/46/smiles/2541819642.gif)
![Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 8 Inxr1Kphla_h](https://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif)
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
amugs wrote:amugs wrote:
Look at all that warm convective moisture boyz - that what's coming up this way greater than modelled once again!
Juicy juice radar peeps - enjoy and dont doubt the convection notion of what happens down south and the moisture fetch from the GOM. Overperformer for sure = BOOOMMM!!!
The models had a hard time and always do with such. Enjoy as I go back to virtual teaching. Harped on this all last night.
Yes, kudos. Great call there guy
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Definitely under a heavy band here. Heaviest snow of the morning now falling. It's blitzing snow out there.
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Flakes increasing in size. starting to stack up now. Good call Mugs!
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
This is 3"/hour stuff. No joke
![Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 8 WUNIDS_map?station=DIX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map](http://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=DIX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0)
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Snow has started here at 9 33 am.
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Building on what Frank said above, the temperatures (at the surface) have definitely been colder this morning than I anticipated. I started to creep up into the mid-20s before the snow started to come down but am back down to 22* right now. Figured I'd be at least upper 20s most of the morning.
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
This band the NAM showed a couple of days ago and I displayed in my write-up is pretty close to reality.
Frank_Wx wrote:
Check out this band of 700mb frontogenesis the NAM tracks from south to north across PA, NJ and NYC. This band has the potential to drop 3-4" of snow in 1 HOUR.
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
COME TO POPPPA MELLOW YELLOW!!!!
NE Trajectory = a KABOOMM!! 1-2+" SNOWFALL RATES IN THESE
![Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 8 CODNEXLAB-NEXRAD-DIX-N0Q-20210218-1429-12-100.gif.2e78b4c71f152b6cbb1687ddbc187743](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_02/CODNEXLAB-NEXRAD-DIX-N0Q-20210218-1429-12-100.gif.2e78b4c71f152b6cbb1687ddbc187743.gif)
NE Trajectory = a KABOOMM!! 1-2+" SNOWFALL RATES IN THESE
![Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 8 CODNEXLAB-NEXRAD-DIX-N0Q-20210218-1429-12-100.gif.2e78b4c71f152b6cbb1687ddbc187743](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_02/CODNEXLAB-NEXRAD-DIX-N0Q-20210218-1429-12-100.gif.2e78b4c71f152b6cbb1687ddbc187743.gif)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Nice steady snow up here in Hopatcong. Already over an inch and rapidly approaching 2.
If the heaviest of this stays just to my south, that's totally cool. I still do well up here and it's gorgeous to watch. Not to mention I still had 12 + inches on the ground when this thing started.
I hope everyone cashes in!
If the heaviest of this stays just to my south, that's totally cool. I still do well up here and it's gorgeous to watch. Not to mention I still had 12 + inches on the ground when this thing started.
I hope everyone cashes in!
Last edited by DAYBLAZER on Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:03 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
qnd headed right this way, bring it. This has been a good year for NYC metro and NNJ, this year totally makes up for the past 2 yrs.Frank_Wx wrote:This is 3"/hour stuff. No joke
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Amici...
I am speechless
I am speechless
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