Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

by Zhukov1945 Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:29 pm

heehaw453 wrote:That dotted line blue line buldge about 10K feet is the WAA. It's the reason for sleet below I-78. Some of the bands also have warm air in them and will sleet above 78. Just depends on which band you're under.

It's been pretty much a sleetfest up in Clinton (close to 78) for at least the last hour. Same story, different day lol.

by **aiannone** Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:33 pm

and now all sleet again. damn this is annoying

by **docstox12** Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:35 pm

DAYBLAZER wrote:Looks like it's shutting off up here in NW NJ. Can we expect any more? I have about 4 inches, no complaints at all. Just wondering if any more snow is in order.

Radar seems to be shutting snow down here soon too.Wondering the same thing about more.Close to 2 inches here, moderate to light snow the last 1/2 hour.Staying all snow so far.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:39 pm

The 'sleet outbreak' was actually well modeled. Remember...mid level's are not great. Upper levels are fantastic though.

Yes some areas definitely over-performed near the Philly Metro and CNJ, but when you look at this one holistically I think it did what it was supposed to. Now let's see if the coastal storm brings any additional snow tonight. If it does, I think it will mostly benefit NJ shore, NE NJ, NYC and LI

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:40 pm

docstox12 wrote:
DAYBLAZER wrote:Looks like it's shutting off up here in NW NJ. Can we expect any more? I have about 4 inches, no complaints at all. Just wondering if any more snow is in order.

Radar seems to be shutting snow down here soon too.Wondering the same thing about more.Close to 2 inches here, moderate to light snow the last 1/2 hour.Staying all snow so far.

My guess is you guys N&W end up with another 1-3" between now and the coastal event later tonight.

by **Irish** Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:41 pm

I think most of the big accumulations are over, maybe we see 1-3 more inches between today and tomorrow.

by SkiSeadooJoe Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:43 pm

Back to all sleet down here, got a good 2.5-3" in the hour that it was all snow - good stuff while it lasted!

by **jmanley32** Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:44 pm

Snow is ending, its basically a flurry, too bad I did not get those rates longer, hoping the 2nd round does well. 3 inches seems par for the course though for most which is what we have here.

by **billg315** Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:47 pm

Regardless of what happens with the back-half of this storm tonight and tomorrow I'm happy. I got a morning of good steady - sometimes heavy - snow to watch, freshened up the snowpack with a nice clean layer and now there are hints of additional snow in the coming days (weeks?), so this was a nice little event from my perspective.

by **aiannone** Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:47 pm

Back to all snow. heavy now

by **bloc1357** Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:54 pm

aiannone wrote:Back to all snow. heavy now

Same here south shore LI

by **aiannone** Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:54 pm

bloc1357 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Back to all snow. heavy now

Same here south shore LI

Cold air winning out

by **heehaw453** Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:56 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The 'sleet outbreak' was actually well modeled. Remember...mid level's are not great. Upper levels are fantastic though.

Yes some areas definitely over-performed near the Philly Metro and CNJ, but when you look at this one holistically I think it did what it was supposed to. Now let's see if the coastal storm brings any additional snow tonight. If it does, I think it will mostly benefit NJ shore, NE NJ, NYC and LI

Definitely Frank. The best chance to have cashed in on this storm was from the initial WAA. Those in SEPA (Chester, Montgomery, Bucks) did just that and have between 8-10" of snow. The coastal is a bit of a wild card, but I'm thinking 1-3" more is still possible.

by **bloc1357** Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:56 pm

Huge flakes...can actually see them piling up!

by **GreyBeard** Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:01 pm

by **aiannone** Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:12 pm

Has to be 3”/hr here on LI. Flakes are huge And coming down fast.

by **GreyBeard** Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:12 pm

Heaviest rates of the day now falling. Looking out my window I feel like I'm in a snow globe that was violently shaken. Can barely see across the street.

by **aiannone** Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:15 pm

This is all snow!

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 13 200c4c10

by **frank 638** Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:19 pm

aiannone wrote:This is all snow!

I am in that band now all snow

Unfortunately looks like it’s going to end soon

by **aiannone** Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:21 pm

I’m pretty sure I’m witnessing the heaviest snowfall rate of my lifetime. Has to be 3.5-4” an hour

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:28 pm

Looks like it's pretty much over for wave 1 here.

I'm going to call it at 1.5 inches and try to pretend that this never happened and lick my wounds and move on.

52 inches for the season now and 13.5 inches otg so I can't bitch too much.

by **GreyBeard** Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:29 pm

That was fun while it lasted. And now the end is near...

by **heehaw453** Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:35 pm

24.6/23.4

All snow pixie dust. About 5" of new snow. I think I'll get some more out of this before all is said and done. I cracked 50" on the season!

by **essexcountypete** Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:42 pm

Snow essentially stopped in Bloomfield. A nice even 3".

Looks like there might be hints of redevelopment to our west. Like NEPA/NNJ into NY?

Or is it my snowidolia?

by **Irish** Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:51 pm

Great call sticking with your map Frank.

by **brownie** Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:59 pm

3.5” on the ground here. Seems to have stopped.

by **lglickman1** Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:04 pm

What is a realistic expectation for additional snow accumulation through tomorrow morning in the NYC metro area?

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