February 2022 Obs & Discussions

Picked up 3 inches from this nice little event. 15.5 for the season so far, still well below average, but have snow/ice cover for about 5 weeks now.

17.5" on the season. 1/2 the seasonal average....so far

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
707 PM EST Sun Feb 13 2022

CTZ010-NYZ078-080-140200-
Southern New Haven-Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
707 PM EST Sun Feb 13 2022

A band of moderate snowfall is shifting east across the area.
Snowfall rates of an inch per hour are possible in this band. With
temperatures in mid 20s and now past sundown - accumulating snow
is possible on all untreated surfaces. Slippery conditions may
result.

I can confirm Mugs it was not an aboration out here. Ended with about 5”. I knew Suffolk was in for surprises. Dsix you had do about as well right?

Not a bad storm for a “near miss”. About 4.5” here. No complaints.

Barely a coating here on LBI. Didn’t even start snowing until 3:30pm, then shut off by 4:30pm. Didn’t snow again until about 8pm. It snowed for about another hour and that’s when we picked up our half-inch or so lol

It was a sift powder ending in four inches. Today, the dog went out early at 5 and it was 7.5 degrees. Looking snow-pack unfriendly in a couple of days. The snow pack has done its job. Ambiance

Have to watch Thursday night into Friday for pretty serious winds with passage of front. Upton HWO says winds in excess of 60mph yikes and that's pretty unusual for a front. Looks fairly long duration too 6 hours plus. Of course always comes on our garbage night which means trash everywhere. All models agree on high winds.

12* this morning!

9.5 for low.

sroc4 wrote:I can confirm Mugs it was not an aboration out here. Ended with about 5”. I knew Suffolk was in for surprises. Dsix you had do about as well right?

Correct! After sundown we accumulated fairly quickly, nice long duration event in Manorville.

Jman for you from NWS. Seeing upwards of 50 mph gusts possible for NYC metro

amugs wrote:Jman for you from NWS. Seeing upwards of 50 mph gusts possible for NYC metro

That may be low considering their HWO:

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
352 PM EST Mon Feb 14 2022

CTZ005>012-NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ068>075-078>081-176>179-152100-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-
Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
352 PM EST Mon Feb 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph are possible late Thursday
into early Friday as a strong frontal system tracks through the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

Then again I see on that map they Have LI on the upper end, we shall see. Looks like I may have take a trip to eastern CT if I want to see if really howl. But I think it is also going to be pouring right?

3.5 this morning.

8* this morning - brrr!!

Wind Gusts as per GFS - about 6-8 hours of such would be an issue if verifies
Euro has wind max gusts top at about 40mph for the NYC Metro region

16* this morning...brrr but beautiful to look out and see white on the ground

4° for the low this morning.

Consecutive days of snow cover now at 40, although a much better looking snow cover now after the 4 inch refresher on Sunday morning. Impressive for a winter that has only seen 25.9 inches of snow up here so far. Hoping to double that in March.

In RB we trust.

amugs wrote:8* this morning - brrr!!

Wind Gusts as per GFS - about 6-8 hours of such would be an issue if verifies
Euro has wind max gusts top at about 40mph for the NYC Metro region

If this map verifies verbatim NYC area sees max at 55mph, that 2nd pic is a bit scary for LI and eastern CT verbatim.  Usually overdone but they are saying this front is going to be quite intense and long duration.  At least no leaves on trees which will minimize damage to trees/powerlines if gusts over 50-60mph happen anywhere.

High Wind Watch has been issued for Suffolk County:

SoulSingMG wrote:High Wind Watch has been issued for Suffolk County:

yeah judging by models surprised its not further west, i mean the winds are going to be stronger there (why is that doesn't a front disipate as it heads east?) but still seem they could meet HWW or at least advisory criteria in NYC and the rest of CT.

14* this morning brrrrr!!

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:High Wind Watch has been issued for Suffolk County:

yeah judging by models surprised its not further west, i mean the winds are going to be stronger there (why is that doesn't a front disipate as it heads east?) but still seem they could meet HWW or at least advisory criteria in NYC and the rest of CT.

Upton still expects the City to meet Wind Advisory criteria. We'll see how models trend as we get closer to tomorrow night, but it's not so much of a sole frontal wind event as it is a roaring low-level jet just off the surface ahead of the front. As of now, it looks like they expect the core of the LLJ to set up shop across eastern Long Island/SE New England where better mixing is likely.

Upton's latest forecast discussion:

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT A STRONG LLJ (65-80KT@950MB) IS
SIGNALED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COASTAL AREAS LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH WATER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S, THE CHALLENGE IS HOW MUCH OF
THE LLJ WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN IN A STRONGLY INVERTED LOW-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AS IS TYPICAL, GFS INDICATING A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MIXED LAYER, WITH POTENTIAL FOR 50 KT GUSTS ACROSS E
LI/SE CT, WHILE NAM MORE STRONGLY INVERTED INDICATING GUST
POTENTIAL OF 35-40 KT. REALITY TENDS TO LIE IN BETWEEN IN TERMS
OF MIXING, WITH MORE CLARITY EXPECTED AS THIS EVENT GETS INTO
THE WINDOW OF CAM GUIDANCE TODAY. NBM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD WITH GUST MAGNITUDE FROM 24 HRS AGO, WITH 4.0
INDICATING 40KT GUST POTENTIAL FOR LI AND CT, WHILE VERSION 4.1
SHOWING A 45-55 KT POTENTIAL FOR LI/CT (HIGHEST FOR E LI AND FAR
SE CT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH IN A WIND ADVISORY EVENT
THU NIGHT ALONG THE COAST, INCLUDING NYC (45-55MPH), WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING HIGH WINDS GUSTS (55-65MPH) FOR E LI AND
FAR SE CT. THE TIMING FOR PEAK STRONG TO HIGH WIND GUSTS
CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND 6-12Z FRI.

BASED ON THE SIGNAL FOR 50KT WIND GUST POTENTIAL FROM NBM 4.1
AND DEEPER MIXED LAYER GFS ACROSS E LI/FAR SE CT, AND STRENGTH
OF LLJ, WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. THIS HIGH
WIND POTENTIAL FOR THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE
REFINED TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS IT BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED BY THE
CAMS, IN ADDITION TO THE EXTENT OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE STRONG WIND
(WIND ADVISORY) POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST.

Soul Brother - HRRR which has ben on fire as of late with our storms says fire up the generator for many!! 3 - 7AM Friday
AS my blue brothers says - Nothing Good happens between 11PM -6AM!!

STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
You're looking at LOW LEVEL JET winds, about 1 mile above our heads. 70-80% CAN make it to the surface only if the rain is heavy enough, otherwise it won't materialize. Widespread 40-50mph gusts though? Very likely. Stay tuned! pic.twitter.com/HBzRBPVFwe

— “NorEaster” Nick Pittman (@NorEasterNick) February 16, 2022

amugs wrote:

STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
You're looking at LOW LEVEL JET winds, about 1 mile above our heads. 70-80% CAN make it to the surface only if the rain is heavy enough, otherwise it won't materialize. Widespread 40-50mph gusts though? Very likely. Stay tuned! pic.twitter.com/HBzRBPVFwe

— “NorEaster” Nick Pittman (@NorEasterNick) February 16, 2022

This is a screaming LLJ that 70% mixes down your look at t 50 mph winds for hours = Power Outage issues

HREF

Sustained winds 25-35mph region wide



Gusts
50 mph plus