Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

[sroc4]

The 8-10th seems to be active window.  Cold enough at all layers? Lots of s/w energy approaching? It was a period of interest of mine due to the baroclinic zone setting up.  Sometimes they can produce if you're on the cold side and a vigorous enough wave rides them.  At some point the rubber has to meet the road around here I'm hoping.

Weenies gonna ween. All those who continue to jump off the bridge for the winter can cont to do so. (Not you btw). I have a feeling something will hit. I was texting a buddy of mine back on Dec 27th and my statement to him was and I quote "Between 7-10th is the transition. First snow threat 9th-12th, more realistic 12th-15th" Like you I still stand by that.

[heehaw453]

The 8-10th seems to be active window.  Cold enough at all layers? Lots of s/w energy approaching? It was a period of interest of mine due to the baroclinic zone setting up.  Sometimes they can produce if you're on the cold side and a vigorous enough wave rides them.  At some point the rubber has to meet the road around here I'm hoping.

Weenies gonna ween.  All those who continue to jump off the bridge for the winter can cont to do so.  (Not you btw).  I have a feeling something will hit.  I was texting a buddy of mine back on Dec 27th and my statement to him was and I quote "Between 7-10th is the transition.  First snow threat 9th-12th, more realistic 12th-15th" Like you I still stand by that.

From my point of view I don't see repeat of winter 19-20 (single digit snowfall for most).  On the other hand, bad start Nina's are not ones where I would bet on seeing avg seasonal snowfall for most.  I think to get there going to have to get clocked by a Godzilla.  But I am open to a change of thoughts as conditions warrant.

[Frank_Wx]

Roughly 10-12 days from today the EURO is forecasting the MJO to move into phase 8, an indication that upper level ridging will return to the northern Pacific and put the mean trough back over the eastern US. If this comes to fruition, I definitely agree the mid part of this month we’ll see our first significant snowfall along the coast. Between this and the SSWE maps I posted earlier, there’s reason for optimism. There’s a chance this gets delayed, since models are never great with timing, but I do think it’ll eventually get to this point…

[heehaw453]

Sunday night/Monday lot of energy with a tap into the GOM for moisture.  This system if it tracks right could produce a light/moderate snowfall. Very cautious right now with the way things have gone, so need another day at least of good trends before having any faith in this.

[amugs]

MJO Phase 8 500 MB pattern for January



GEFS - moderate wave in MJO phase 8



EURO is not as strong which means other factors can mitigate it - of course Dr. No has to show up

[amugs]

GEFS BC which is usually a better indicator for the MJO wave

[amugs]

Good warming at the top of the startosphere and working its way down ward a bit as well as outlined in the red circle N a Sigma 3-4 warming.

[sroc4]

Sunday night/Monday lot of energy with a tap into the GOM for moisture.  This system if it tracks right could produce a light/moderate snowfall. Very cautious right now with the way things have gone, so need another day at least of good trends before having any faith in this.

Yup GFS continues to be that flirty girl....




"Hey would you like to go out for dinner?"

"Sorry. I have a boyfriend"

[MattyICE]

I think Scott posted this a few days ago - but for me the key indicator is to keep an eye on the SOI values. We want to see them drop quite a bit starting very soon. If that starts to happen I think that might lend some credence to the favorable MJO stuff. If not, I’ll bet the real MJO move is either into the COD or it’s into favorable phases but with negligible amplitude and thus easily overridden by other factors. I’m putting little faith into anything stratosphere related at this point. If we can bump it around a bit and wobble it that could help, but that’s more of a wildcard. And if there IS a real SSWE out there lurking it’s way out and a huge wildcard.

[heehaw453]

12Z Euro not really far off from being interesting on 1/9.  May not work out, and with how things are going that's most folks expectation anyway.  Next 24-48 hours of model runs will provide insight.

[amugs]

Dr. No is the EURO, has been for a long time now.
IO convection on VP charts is dying rapidly which should aid in a SOI drop.
What is the SOI correlation to the MJO is interestng to know?
IF GEFS BC are onto this MJO wave that of course is a moderate wave on it OLR maps and VP maps then it could be very interesting moving forward. LC, Larry Cosgrove is a big beiliever and has posted that the tropical convection albeit light can rule a pattern overriding other drivers due to the shortening of wavelength and other such factors. Some food for thought. Latent Heat from this region can have monsterous effects of the pattern especially in winter where its most prominent......and important.



The West Coast storm sequence will eventually break the general USA mild trend....

When I look at the overall temperature trends through the lower 48 states, I see a close-to-climatology pattern concerning temperatures and precipitation for what is termed the "January Thaw". The air mass over the northern half of the nation is cold enough to support frozen types.

I mention this because risks for heavy snow in the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast are valid as we move through the next ten days. If a storm is present, somewhat like the 12z GFS and GGEM model runs are attempting to show, enough moisture will be available to see accumulations or ice accretions in some locations. While the bombogenesis forecast off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline next week is an outlier, you would be well advised that there are forces aloft (namely Canadian ridging) that could wreck overly ambitious "winter is over" predictions.

Ultimately, the storms over the Pacific Basin, now targeting California and Oregon with horrific weather, will break down the existing configuration, moving across the continent into a "reset" of ridge West/North/East and full-latitude cold trough across the middle of the continent. That process starts in the 11-15 day period.

[jmanley32]

12z GFS verbatim would make nearly 100% of this board very happy but am nearly 100% skeptical about anything like it playing out on the 10th-12th time frame even though you guys mentioned that period. I mean 65 today, t-shirt, car windows down, this is absurd.

[amugs]

"To reflect/stretch or absorb/SSW that is the question" for the #polarvortex (PV). I've been dumbfounded for weeks but I think I finally figured it out. I discuss what to expect for the PV & the weather impacts possibly thru end of winter. Blog now public: https://t.co/Gg8N2KIjJS pic.twitter.com/Xdmk6HXnlb

— Judah Cohen (@judah47) January 4, 2023

[Frank_Wx]

The threat between the 12th and 13th is enticing, but unfortunately I’m seeing more bad than good when it comes to upper levels. Once again we’re at the mercy of a perfectly timed phase. The west coast continues to get battered by storms, which rolls the PNA ridge eastward, and there’s a poorly placed High over the Hudson. That High is slowing the northern short wave down and possibly trying to suppress the southern energy. Plenty of time for changes.

[Frank_Wx]

Beyond the 15th, I think models are completely lost. There’s going to be an arctic blast that hits us once the troposphere responds to the warming taking place in the Stratosphere around mid-month. This warming coincides with activity in the cold phases of the MJO. So, everyone will have to be patient. I think our pattern change will come. But not before the 20th or 25th of January.

[Frank_Wx]

Fingers crossed we’re able to capitalize on at least one snowfall event before then, but I’m just calling the storm around the 12th how I see it and it doesn’t look good to me. But things could change

[Irish]

The threat between the 12th and 13th is enticing, but unfortunately I’m seeing more bad than good when it comes to upper levels. Once again we’re at the mercy of a perfectly timed phase. The west coast continues to get battered by storms, which rolls the PNA ridge eastward, and there’s a poorly placed High over the Hudson. That High is slowing the northern short wave down and possibly trying to suppress the southern energy. Plenty of time for changes.

I just came on here to ask about the possibility of a storm between the 13th-14th.

[jmanley32]

Beyond the 15th, I think models are completely lost. There’s going to be an arctic blast that hits us once the troposphere responds to the warming taking place in the Stratosphere around mid-month. This warming coincides with activity in the cold phases of the MJO. So, everyone will have to be patient. I think our pattern change will come. But not before the 20th or 25th of January.

Thats crazy, We cannot deny that something has changed the way winters are whether is be global warming, decade long cycles of warming just cannot be denied. I remember as a kid bundling up in November and seeing first flurries around thanksgiving and usually having a snowy Dec, Jan and Feb before it slowly warmed up though we did get snow in March and April (rarely april).  Not trying to be a downer but personally I am sucking it up for what it is and looks to be our new climate, CP you may need to move to Buffalo, or near if your gonna stay sane : )

So now our abbreviation is F instead of DJF? Does that mean F-this lol

[aiannone]

Not good coming from him lol.

[sroc4]

Beyond the 15th, I think models are completely lost. There’s going to be an arctic blast that hits us once the troposphere responds to the warming taking place in the Stratosphere around mid-month. This warming coincides with activity in the cold phases of the MJO. So, everyone will have to be patient. I think our pattern change will come. But not before the 20th or 25th of January.

Thats crazy, We cannot deny that something has changed the way winters are whether is be global warming, decade long cycles of warming just cannot be denied. I remember as a kid bundling up in November and seeing first flurries around thanksgiving and usually having a snowy Dec, Jan and Feb before it slowly warmed up though we did get snow in March and April (rarely april).  Not trying to be a downer but personally I am sucking it up for what it is and looks to be our new climate, CP you may need to move to Buffalo, or near if your gonna stay sane : )

So now our abbreviation is F instead of DJF? Does that mean F-this lol

No one denies that the climate changes Jon.  It has been changing for Hundreds of millions to billions of years.  Even at its peek, in the modern era, the avg global temp has been much warmer than it is now.  It has been significantly warmer at least 4 times in the only documented last 400,000 yrs or so.  Previous history notes areas that are now warm used to be under mile high ice sheets.  Areas that are cold now have fossils of tropical plants and animal life indicating it used to be much warmer.  A tiny little region like the north east, on the scale of the globe, really is a IMBY type of size when it comes to global patterns and how they shift over time so experiencing a change over the past decade or so and trying to draw any conclusions about the earths climate as a whole based on a human lifetime is utter nonsense.  The timeline of a human life is not even a drop in the pacific ocean.  Again no one denies anything regarding the climate changing.  Heck I don't even think many deny that humans are a part of that equation, myself included, but man with the narrative in the political landscape touting man made, man made(no exception), over and over and over to drive policies for a specific political agenda, it becomes too easy to simply knee jerk and use that as the scapegoat for something that has literally been going on for billions of years and is way more complex then the politicians make it out to be.  Going forward feel free to post your banter in banter.

[heehaw453]

Fingers crossed we’re able to capitalize on at least one snowfall event before then, but I’m just calling the storm around the 12th how I see it and it doesn’t look good to me. But things could change

Healthy teeth can be pulled easier than getting measurable snowfall around here it seems. I'm not bullish on 8-10th window ATTM. NYC is getting into the once in 25 years anomaly for no measurable snowfall this deep into a season.  If goes past the 15th then you're at the once in 50 years area.

[phil155]

Beyond the 15th, I think models are completely lost. There’s going to be an arctic blast that hits us once the troposphere responds to the warming taking place in the Stratosphere around mid-month. This warming coincides with activity in the cold phases of the MJO. So, everyone will have to be patient. I think our pattern change will come. But not before the 20th or 25th of January.

Thats crazy, We cannot deny that something has changed the way winters are whether is be global warming, decade long cycles of warming just cannot be denied. I remember as a kid bundling up in November and seeing first flurries around thanksgiving and usually having a snowy Dec, Jan and Feb before it slowly warmed up though we did get snow in March and April (rarely april).  Not trying to be a downer but personally I am sucking it up for what it is and looks to be our new climate, CP you may need to move to Buffalo, or near if your gonna stay sane : )

So now our abbreviation is F instead of DJF? Does that mean F-this lol

No one denies that the climate changes Jon.  It has been changing for Hundreds of millions to billions of years.  Even at its peek, in the modern era, the avg global temp has been much warmer than it is now.  It has been significantly warmer at least 4 times in the only documented last 400,000 yrs or so.  Previous history notes areas that are now warm used to be under mile high ice sheets.  Areas that are cold now have fossils of tropical plants and animal life indicating it used to be much warmer.  A tiny little region like the north east, on the scale of the globe, really is a IMBY type of size when it comes to global patterns and how they shift over time so experiencing a change over the past decade or so and trying to draw any conclusions about the earths climate as a whole based on a human lifetime is utter nonsense.  The timeline of a human life is not even a drop in the pacific ocean.  Again no one denies anything regarding the climate changing.  Heck I don't even think many deny that humans are a part of that equation, myself included, but man with the narrative in the political landscape touting man made, man made(no exception), over and over and over to drive policies for a specific political agenda, it becomes too easy to simply knee jerk and use that as the scapegoat for something that has literally been going on for billions of years and is way more complex then the politicians make it out to be.  Going forward feel free to post your banter in banter.

Exceptionally well said

[Irish]

Beyond the 15th, I think models are completely lost. There’s going to be an arctic blast that hits us once the troposphere responds to the warming taking place in the Stratosphere around mid-month. This warming coincides with activity in the cold phases of the MJO. So, everyone will have to be patient. I think our pattern change will come. But not before the 20th or 25th of January.

Thats crazy, We cannot deny that something has changed the way winters are whether is be global warming, decade long cycles of warming just cannot be denied. I remember as a kid bundling up in November and seeing first flurries around thanksgiving and usually having a snowy Dec, Jan and Feb before it slowly warmed up though we did get snow in March and April (rarely april).  Not trying to be a downer but personally I am sucking it up for what it is and looks to be our new climate, CP you may need to move to Buffalo, or near if your gonna stay sane : )

So now our abbreviation is F instead of DJF? Does that mean F-this lol

No one denies that the climate changes Jon.  It has been changing for Hundreds of millions to billions of years.  Even at its peek, in the modern era, the avg global temp has been much warmer than it is now.  It has been significantly warmer at least 4 times in the only documented last 400,000 yrs or so.  Previous history notes areas that are now warm used to be under mile high ice sheets.  Areas that are cold now have fossils of tropical plants and animal life indicating it used to be much warmer.  A tiny little region like the north east, on the scale of the globe, really is a IMBY type of size when it comes to global patterns and how they shift over time so experiencing a change over the past decade or so and trying to draw any conclusions about the earths climate as a whole based on a human lifetime is utter nonsense.  The timeline of a human life is not even a drop in the pacific ocean.  Again no one denies anything regarding the climate changing.  Heck I don't even think many deny that humans are a part of that equation, myself included, but man with the narrative in the political landscape touting man made, man made(no exception), over and over and over to drive policies for a specific political agenda, it becomes too easy to simply knee jerk and use that as the scapegoat for something that has literally been going on for billions of years and is way more complex then the politicians make it out to be.  Going forward feel free to post your banter in banter.

Exceptionally well said

Except that we are entering into the first ever human- caused geological Era- Anthropocene.  Where we are seeing mass animal extinction and climate shift unlike any other time we've seen because of human behavior and decision-making. When considering the history of the world, how long have we been burning fossil fuels?  No other age has had to deal with the amount of extreme change do to the selfishness of human need and desire. So it's really hard to compare what we've seen for millions/billions of years in regard to natural changes, versus the changes we've specifically brought on.  Our planet, each sphere, would be in a much healthier state had it not been for what we as humans have done.

I know belongs in banter, but doing this on my phone, didn't make things easy to quote and respond. Feel free to move it if needed.

[heehaw453]

Still close enough to keep on eye on for Sunday night/Monday.  Would need to sharpen the trough to allow for EC heights to rise. Probably a lost cause for anything beyond a c-1".

[amugs]

Beyond the 15th, I think models are completely lost. There’s going to be an arctic blast that hits us once the troposphere responds to the warming taking place in the Stratosphere around mid-month. This warming coincides with activity in the cold phases of the MJO. So, everyone will have to be patient. I think our pattern change will come. But not before the 20th or 25th of January.

Thats crazy, We cannot deny that something has changed the way winters are whether is be global warming, decade long cycles of warming just cannot be denied. I remember as a kid bundling up in November and seeing first flurries around thanksgiving and usually having a snowy Dec, Jan and Feb before it slowly warmed up though we did get snow in March and April (rarely april).  Not trying to be a downer but personally I am sucking it up for what it is and looks to be our new climate, CP you may need to move to Buffalo, or near if your gonna stay sane : )

So now our abbreviation is F instead of DJF? Does that mean F-this lol

No one denies that the climate changes Jon.  It has been changing for Hundreds of millions to billions of years.  Even at its peek, in the modern era, the avg global temp has been much warmer than it is now.  It has been significantly warmer at least 4 times in the only documented last 400,000 yrs or so.  Previous history notes areas that are now warm used to be under mile high ice sheets.  Areas that are cold now have fossils of tropical plants and animal life indicating it used to be much warmer.  A tiny little region like the north east, on the scale of the globe, really is a IMBY type of size when it comes to global patterns and how they shift over time so experiencing a change over the past decade or so and trying to draw any conclusions about the earths climate as a whole based on a human lifetime is utter nonsense.  The timeline of a human life is not even a drop in the pacific ocean.  Again no one denies anything regarding the climate changing.  Heck I don't even think many deny that humans are a part of that equation, myself included, but man with the narrative in the political landscape touting man made, man made(no exception), over and over and over to drive policies for a specific political agenda, it becomes too easy to simply knee jerk and use that as the scapegoat for something that has literally been going on for billions of years and is way more complex then the politicians make it out to be.  Going forward feel free to post your banter in banter.

Exceptionally well said

Except that we are entering into the first ever human- caused geological Era- Anthropocene.  Where we are seeing mass animal extinction and climate shift unlike any other time we've seen because of human behavior and decision-making. When considering the history of the world, how long have we been burning fossil fuels?  No other age has had to deal with the amount of extreme change do to the selfishness of human need and desire. So it's really hard to compare what we've seen for millions/billions of years in regard to natural changes, versus the changes we've specifically brought on.  Our planet, each sphere, would be in a much healthier state had it not been for what we as humans have done.

I know belongs in banter, but doing this on my phone, didn't make things easy to quote and respond. Feel free to move it if needed.

Look at cycles, Dansgard Osgard Events and the Carrington Event of 1859 or the Lake Mungo ( no relation) Magnetic Pole shift and flip or 200k and 700k years ago. Greenland was tropical and the coastal ran tens of miles into what is todays ocean during such event's. When I see scientists, who have made predictions that have not even come remotely close are still being touted as someone who I'd an expert on this  and I follow the $$ that they recieve I pause and say incredulous. What I have learned since studying on my own time this is that we are in the cross roads of numerous cycles and we have ABSOLUTELY no control, Sun, Planetary, Earth cycles. We can say and make up some theory or what may sound logical to convince ourselves but when you dig you say, what a time to be alive and it isn't getting any better anytime soon. CO2 is a trace gas .03% of put atmosphere of the massive atmosphere we have. Even if it were 3% it still negligible.  We g3t caught up in out IMBY and base our opinion on such when we have a massive planet wi5h so much happening weathereise it is literally difficult to keep track of all the extremes. Remember thus 1930's set th3 all time record temperature for both cold and hot not only in USA but worldwide. And guess what we survived  it as we did the ice age and medieval "warm" period of 3-400 years. 

On another more at home note we have a SSWE setting up and the winds are FINALLY showing what we've been discussing online and here. Looks to be midish to late Jan for this. Coincides with the map I posted last night.

[frank 638]

I was watching Lee goldberg at 445 and he was saying Next Thursday it’s going to get colder and we might have a nor’easter nearby. The way this winter is going I don’t believe it I know it will go out to sea or it’s going to be a rain storm

[heehaw453]

Anytime I see a moisture fetch to the GOM and cold enough air there is chance. Not sig event, but light with moderate ceiling.  Very understandable folks are skeptical, but this is 72+ hours. I think if we can hold this look another 24 hours or so with improvement then we got a little something.

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