Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

[amugs]

For the #PolarVortex (PV) the hits keep coming with the best yet to come from upwelling wave energy from the troposphere. What does this mean for the PV & the impact on our weather? It's serious when I dust off the six-step snow model. The blog now public: https://t.co/Gg8N2KIjJS pic.twitter.com/KBya32hZrn

— Judah Cohen (@judah47) January 18, 2023

This is along that Frank and I have been posting here for a while now. Dr. Lee and Butler are on this as well.
Cohen said, "I am not predicting a split just ....yet"!! That would be interesting if it happens for midish for late Feb. 
Time will tell 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Monday's system the Icon believes in a snow lover's dream.  Has it ever been right?

It’s been such a horrible non Winter so far maybe we need something supernatural like the Icon being a correct outlier several days in advance to get us out of this funk.

[Frank_Wx]

The 18z GFS completely displaced the Strat PV off the pole. If that came to fruition, it would mean a pretty epic February.

[Frank_Wx]

Based off some research…I think N&W of NYC is going to see one heck of a snowy February. That’s not to say the coast will not see snow - they will at some point - but we’re seeing indications of a potent Pacific wave similar (but stronger) to the one we saw back in December. This will completely dismantle the Strat PV (SSWE). The first development will be a -EPO ridge that eventually becomes a -WPO ridge. Next will be a -NAO, but I’m thinking more east-based. Normally this type of 500mb setup favors N&W. That said, there will be arctic cold across the northern US and it won’t take much for that to bleed southeast. Mondays storm will likely cut west and send the cold air to the coast, setting us up for Wednesday. I think that’s the only way the coast can win right now (addition by subtraction)

[heehaw453]

Based off some research…I think N&W of NYC is going to see one heck of a snowy February. That’s not to say the coast will not see snow - they will at some point - but we’re seeing indications of a potent Pacific wave similar (but stronger) to the one we saw back in December. This will completely dismantle the Strat PV (SSWE). The first development will be a -EPO ridge that eventually becomes a -WPO ridge. Next will be a -NAO, but I’m thinking more east-based. Normally this type of 500mb setup favors N&W. That said, there will be arctic cold across the northern US and it won’t take much for that to bleed southeast. Mondays storm will likely cut west and send the cold air to the coast, setting us up for Wednesday. I think that’s the only way the coast can win right now (addition by subtraction)

I don't think Monday storm will cut.  There's not enough space between the s/w for this to blow up in January.  You see the ULL deamplify as it moves east Figure A.  What has plagued us this entire winter will do so again is the antecedent ridge warming the boundary levels.  There simply isn't enough cold air to render snow on the coast and even inland it's not ideal.  I am skeptical of 1/25 threat too with a potent s/w like you see in AZ.  The only way I see that working out is if somehow heights get lowered to our north by the TPV as in Figure B.

Figure A
Monday
S/W close and UL energy will deamplify track will be inside BM but air mass is not ideal Would need an additional push east and intensification  as it moves to our east to cool boundary layer.  Doubt it.



Figure B
Wednesday dampened heights start to rise as the trough above pulls away.  That leads to an inland track.  Unless we get confluence in that area I'm skeptical.

[heehaw453]

I'll say one more thing on the Monday storm.  A setup what Euro is showing would be 6"+ snow for I95 on a decent year.  One where there was cold air around. But this year is another animal as y'all know. The only thing that can give I95 a shot for a few weeks is the TPV placement and movement. But until you get your first snowfall skepticism must remain.  NYC will very likely be #2 in the longest its taken for measurable snowfall and yes it's possible it beats the January 28 date, albeit I think something works out before that date. Some how some way...

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I'll say one more thing on the Monday storm.  A setup what Euro is showing would be 6"+ snow for I95 on a decent year.  One where there was cold air around. But this year is another animal as y'all know. The only thing that can give I95 a shot for a few weeks is the TPV placement and movement. But until you get your first snowfall skepticism must remain.  NYC will very likely be #2 in the longest its taken for measurable snowfall and yes it's possible it beats the January 28 date, albeit I think something works out before that date. Some how some way...

Will continue to go with the mindset of what we use to refer to as winter. “Expect little, get even less”

[heehaw453]

This might be too drastic a move as now GEFS shows BM track at D4. I expected this to take another day. The ULL not having that room to breathe is causing that lower level energy to slide east. I expect inside BM track but who the hell knows.

[heehaw453]

Euro continues to bring the ULL energy further south. If that continues the lower level storm will be an slightly inside BM track off Delmarva which would favor some snow for NW I95. Reiterate the air mass is not ideal. It makes sense synoptically, but have to see if this trend holds.

[amugs]

Shame that the 50/50 was locked in for this storm and the 25/26th but has since pulled the ol disappearing act that allows the HP to escape east with it. The 50/50Low goes SE!! WTH?? It rides away and under the the two HP's in the North Atlantic. Bootleg Block all year really with nothing locking in.



Can the GEFS help out NW and I95?? It shifted a good 50 miles SE but again the airmass is terrible for this time of year, Ocean temps running AN not helping at all!!



Watch this reverse as we get ready for the latter part of Feb through April and ruins Spring!!!

[heehaw453]

FWIW NAM is taking the low more towards BM. Yes it's the NAM out of range, but is has support from other guidance. The difference between NAM and Euro is Euro pulls it off the coast a bit later, but ultimately takes that BM path.

edit. Can definitely see the NAM heights points to BM.

[MattyICE]

Been a few Januaries since the NAM had a coup…maybe she’s due!!!

[amugs]

GFS just says either I'm a drunkard at HH or I'm going to plaster the East Coast.



Shows a good SSWE but will it help us or be too late

[amugs]

EURO IS CLOSE FOR MORE BURBS TO GET SOME ACTION!!

[Irish]

Thoughts on looking in the really long range at storm possibilities for the 30th-1st?

[Frank_Wx]

Thoughts on looking in the really long range at storm possibilities for the 30th-1st?

There’s a decent number of storm signals out there, however I think the pattern in that time frame and to start February greatly favors N&W.

[amugs]

OZ NAM Says Won't back down.....until next run??

[heehaw453]

Monday is toast for most IMO expect for some very minor stuff NW.  No cold air source pumping in fresh cold air. Had we had that 6+ for this puppy.

The only reason Wednesday has a shot for frozen is because as progged we may get lucky with a very well placed, but unfort weaker H to pump in just enough cold air for white gold.  This highly favors NW of I95. If you are coastal I wouldn't expect much. WAA is normally going to warm nose much more than what models suggest.  It takes just one layer to taint the snow. If Wednesday storm had a track like Monday storm then sig snow would have been possible. But this is what it is.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

When the trend is in place you don’t fight it. You could go broke fighting trends in the stock market and you could go insane fighting trends in a horrible weather pattern

I could see places where I am getting a couple of inches of sloppy snow out of both systems but that does not a winter make. This looks similar to mid December when we had 2-3 sloppy inches that covered the ground for several days. A non winter event for the coastal plain for now. Soon we move from Wall to Wing, I prefer when there was Winter.

[heehaw453]

When the trend is in place you don’t fight it. You could go broke fighting trends in the stock market and you could go insane fighting trends in a horrible weather pattern

I could see places where I am getting a couple of inches of sloppy snow out of both systems but that does not a winter make. This looks similar to mid December when we had 2-3 sloppy inches that covered the ground for several days. A non winter event for the coastal plain for now. Soon we move from Wall to Wing, I prefer when there was Winter.

Well said. Personally winter has been telling me since December's NAO link to the SER where things stand. I just have been stubbornly not wanting to listen. And at this point I'm going to need to see decent snow on the ground to believe otherwise.

[heehaw453]

Going to have to hope for a less amped up storm on Wednesday or a faster redeveloper, but I like the quasi banana H look that's for sure.  Those H's are coming right out of the Northwest Territories in Canada as shown in second picture.

[amugs]

# of Sudden Stratospheric Warming events during ENSO phases. More frequent during La Nina in the months of January and February. pic.twitter.com/ddyExvLNgx

— Spot On Weather (@eulermatthew4) January 20, 2023

Interesting

[Frank_Wx]

Based off some research…I think N&W of NYC is going to see one heck of a snowy February. That’s not to say the coast will not see snow - they will at some point - but we’re seeing indications of a potent Pacific wave similar (but stronger) to the one we saw back in December. This will completely dismantle the Strat PV (SSWE). The first development will be a -EPO ridge that eventually becomes a -WPO ridge. Next will be a -NAO, but I’m thinking more east-based. Normally this type of 500mb setup favors N&W. That said, there will be arctic cold across the northern US and it won’t take much for that to bleed southeast. Mondays storm will likely cut west and send the cold air to the coast, setting us up for Wednesday. I think that’s the only way the coast can win right now (addition by subtraction)

Update: Anomalous WPO ridge is prevalent on both the GEFS and EPS




The date we see this ridge develop I’m thinking January 30th +/- 3 days. The next shoe to drop is the east based -NAO. Unfortunately that could take until the second or third week of February. Regardless, we’re staring at intense cold come February. The storm tracks will favor N&W until we see Atlantic blocking, either in the form of a -NAO, nicely placed HP, or 50/50 confluence.

[heehaw453]

Wednesday front end snow chances will depend on how strong and how much these H's build in coupled with how fast this storm starts to intensify.  The H's emanate out of the arctic so they are cold source of air.  

Picture B is showing mid-level temps and when you see pink that is tremendously cold air. If it pushes any further than modelled there will be frozen with this.  The column will still taint as the storm approaches, but plain rain will take a longer time especially NW of I95. So it's possible NW of I95 sees several inches of snow/sleet/graupel/etc...

Picture A


Picture B

[heehaw453]

The I95 and coastal plain fortunes will depend on how this sets up.  IMO it all starts with the TPV.  If it drops into and then east of Hudson Bay coast will see snowfall chances again. The SER is ubiquitous it's going to be lurking and will look for an opportunity to link up with the NAO domain ridging. That's why the NAO won't help much if the TPV doesn't pinch it off.  If the TPV goes west of the Hudson Bay then the NAO will link with the SER over the EC and it's December all over again. My guess is the TPV stays around Hudson Bay and the SER builds in again which will continue to provide active storm systems. A gradient sets up and where it's cold enough it will snow quite a bit and that most likely favors the interior.

[JT33]

This is just an FYI type of thing - came across the article just now when I opened my computer. Not sure if this is the proper location to link such things.

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2023/01/21/nyc-approaching-record-breaking-snowless-start-to-winter/

[heehaw453]

This is just an FYI type of thing - came across the article just now when I opened my computer.  Not sure if this is the proper location to link such things.  

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2023/01/21/nyc-approaching-record-breaking-snowless-start-to-winter/

Oh yeah.  Probably better in the January discussions thread. But we're all over this one. CPK may escape infamy with a c-1" on Wednesday before precip flips to rain.  Going to be close and the way this winter has evolved i'd put the probability greater than .5 (50%) that CPK breaks the record even though based on model guidance they shouldn't.

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