Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

[Frank_Wx]

Pattern continues to look awful.

Winter cancel. Maybe March delivers a surprise.

[MattyICE]

I have little doubt that we snap out of this persistent, unfavorable pattern. Maybe the stratosphere helps us do that or maybe it’s the weakening Nina. Regardless, something will swing the pendulum the other way. The problem is that could very easily mean a cold, stormy, rainy, dreary April. I don’t have the statistics handy, but I would be shocked if we just continued this way all the way through a warm spring and hot summer. Obviously the best of hope would result in maybe a 2-3 week slightly more favorable late winter period in mid-March, but then the usual caveats apply (wavelengths, track, sun angle, more daylight etc…). While I hope for that scenario since that’s all we really have left to hope for, We know it’s not a good spot to be in when we’re hoping on a SSWE Hail Mary.

[amugs]

I have little doubt that we snap out of this persistent, unfavorable pattern. Maybe the stratosphere helps us do that or maybe it’s the weakening Nina. Regardless, something will swing the pendulum the other way. The problem is that could very easily mean a cold, stormy, rainy, dreary April. I don’t have the statistics handy, but I would be shocked if we just continued this way all the way through a warm spring and hot summer. Obviously the best of hope would result in maybe a 2-3 week slightly more favorable late winter period in mid-March, but then the usual caveats apply (wavelengths, track, sun angle, more daylight etc…). While I hope for that scenario since that’s all we really have left to hope for, We know it’s not a good spot to be in when we’re hoping on a SSWE Hail Mary.

True words spoken. Also we are starting the transition to a Nino state which would put a knock to the SE Ridge as well. But this is quite inteteresting from Dr Amy Butler. One thing that Dr. Dilley made point to is that there maybe a couple of cold shots left for the NE, in and out but still there nonetheless. Believes around the 23rd for one.

(1/3) There are some #SSWs that are clearly driven from the the bottom up (from atmospheric waves associated with mountains, land-sea contrast, and persistent weather patterns), but this one to me is of the "top-down" variety. pic.twitter.com/UvZ7AH6n4G

— Dr. Amy H Butler (@DrAHButler) February 10, 2023

[heehaw453]

Long the live the SER! It's like the North Star you can count on it being there this winter.

[sroc4]

Long the live the SER! It's like the North Star you can count on it being there this winter.

[amugs]

If this happens March could be fun. I know the sentiment here and in tjis recoed breaking winter, extreme yes and I have harpes on this for sometime about our weather. It's gonna ramp up. And it's not just IMBY, there is a massive picture of record being broken for everything weather wise. 
This would be fun.

Wow! The 12z GFS does a double split of the #PolarVortex with 2 waves of #SSW @judah47 @PvForecast #wxtwitter That would be absolutely wild! pic.twitter.com/dkMbaYYxfh

— Mark Margavage (@MeteoMark) February 11, 2023

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Of course the pattern will change at some point. We can’t stay 10-15 degrees above normal forever, although we’ve been doing that now for almost 2 months non stop.

If it finally does change in Mid March (which I do believe will happen based on my scientific findings while researching the tale of Orange Othelia) I’ll pass and will actually find it more annoying and frustrating than enjoyable.

Sure it might mean some late season snow events even a couple of big ones up my way and of course the April blizzard for the NYC area coastal plain also predicted by Othelia, but I’ve reached the point in my life when December, January and February were already ruined and as bad as I’ve ever seen in my lifetime, so don’t throw me mid March to mid April late season pity snows, an April blizzard and cold.

One bitter, snowless, iceless, winterless, mans opinion.

[Frank_Wx]

Despite major changes in the Statosphere, the EPS still has a stout SE ridge through the month of February.

We'll have to wait until March for any real change to occur. Not going to be easy as sun angle and climo become an issue, but would be nice to see SOMETHING!

[mmanisca]

Of course the pattern will change at some point. We can’t stay 10-15 degrees above normal forever, although we’ve been doing that now for almost 2 months non stop.

If it finally does change in Mid March (which I do believe will happen based on my scientific findings while researching the tale of Orange Othelia) I’ll pass and will actually find it more annoying and frustrating than enjoyable.

Sure it might mean some late season snow events even a couple of big ones up my way and of course the April blizzard for the NYC area coastal plain also predicted by Othelia, but I’ve reached the point in my life when December, January and February were already ruined and as bad as I’ve ever seen in my lifetime, so don’t throw me mid March to mid April late season pity snows, an April blizzard and cold.

One bitter, snowless, iceless, winterless, mans opinion.

Totally agree. Who needs snow storms after mid March...

[heehaw453]

Last week of February 22/23 see what happens. The ensembles start to show a bit of east based blocking with short wave action being pinched under TPV.  That's about the only way I see enough cold air being possible to the coast in this wretched winter. It'll take a dip in the NAO.

[billg315]

Yep. The signal has been there for a snow event on Feb 22/23 for a couple days now, and we are inside of 10 days. So, I guess I'll adopt my Charlie Brown persona and have Lucy hold the ball for me. I've got to make this model subscription worth the investment at some point. What have I got to lose? lol.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Yep. The signal has been there for a snow event on Feb 22/23 for a couple days now, and we are inside of 10 days. So, I guess I'll adopt my Charlie Brown persona and have Lucy hold the ball for me. I've got to make this model subscription worth the investment at some point. What have I got to lose? lol.

Weather channel app is all in on the 23rd for my area. Predicting an inch of snow that night. For this winter that’s a Godzilla maybe a Frankzilla.

[docstox12]

Yep. The signal has been there for a snow event on Feb 22/23 for a couple days now, and we are inside of 10 days. So, I guess I'll adopt my Charlie Brown persona and have Lucy hold the ball for me. I've got to make this model subscription worth the investment at some point. What have I got to lose? lol.

Weather channel app is all in on the 23rd for my area. Predicting an inch of snow that night. For this winter that’s a Godzilla maybe a Frankzilla.

At this rate, a Megazilla.

[billg315]

Yep. The signal has been there for a snow event on Feb 22/23 for a couple days now, and we are inside of 10 days. So, I guess I'll adopt my Charlie Brown persona and have Lucy hold the ball for me. I've got to make this model subscription worth the investment at some point. What have I got to lose? lol.

Weather channel app is all in on the 23rd for my area. Predicting an inch of snow that night. For this winter that’s a Godzilla maybe a Frankzilla.

Lol. Well GFS had us around 6-7” for that yesterday although it is down to 3-4” this morning, but now also has a secondary storm giving us about 6-10” region wide three days later. First time this winter I remember the models showing two measurable snow events back-to back inside of 10-12 days. Usually when the models start showing multiple events in a time frame it signals something real, so we shall see.

[sroc4]

Just a very broad stroked comment here. First inside 10-12 days means nothing to me. Bill this is not a knock on you at all. This winter in particular inside 3-5days is when we can take this seriously. That said there are a few things going on right now that might, and I stressed might, allow for a different outcome in the time frame between the 22nd-March 1st. The possibility of different forcing mechanisms to the atmosphere at play here is a real thing.

That is all

[heehaw453]

Seems like Feb 22-25 is a window of interest.  Too far away as we all know to get too vested, but this east based HL blocking pinching the trough underneath it is interesting for an SWFE/overunning type thing.  December had the blocking but not a trough underneath it so the block just linked up with the SER and we saw how that played out.  As always in this particular winter expect nothing from this until snow is falling IYBY.

[heehaw453]

If i were to draw up a good overrunning snowfall setup for the area next week it'd look similar to the today's GFS 12Z run.  Anytime you're on the cold side of a boundary good things happen.  Starting to think the east based blocking is legit. Whether the timing of the s/w's and the cold press is right well that's another matter. Want to see setup end of week and then I'll be more vested.

[billg315]

Fwiw, 12z GFS is back to showing several inches of snow across the area for the 2/23 event and still showing a follow-up storm a few days later. Again, not taking the model runs verbatim this far out, nor urging anyone to put on their snowsuits and polish their shovels.
Just noting that for my money the setup showing up on the models, and the fact that there is more than one opportunity to cash in on, is one of the more positive I've seen this entire winter (which has been devoid of almost any positivity) so it bears some watching. Obviously for now only here in the long range thread (certainly would be too early for its own thread). By no means do I begrudge anyone their "I'll believe it when I see it" vibes, as I largely share them at this point.

[hyde345]

Of course the pattern will change at some point. We can’t stay 10-15 degrees above normal forever, although we’ve been doing that now for almost 2 months non stop.

If it finally does change in Mid March (which I do believe will happen based on my scientific findings while researching the tale of Orange Othelia) I’ll pass and will actually find it more annoying and frustrating than enjoyable.

Sure it might mean some late season snow events even a couple of big ones up my way and of course the April blizzard for the NYC area coastal plain also predicted by Othelia, but I’ve reached the point in my life when December, January and February were already ruined and as bad as I’ve ever seen in my lifetime, so don’t throw me mid March to mid April late season pity snows, an April blizzard and cold.

One bitter, snowless, iceless, winterless, mans opinion.

Who are you kidding CP. You will be dancing naked in the snow if we get anything significant later this month or in March.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Of course the pattern will change at some point. We can’t stay 10-15 degrees above normal forever, although we’ve been doing that now for almost 2 months non stop.

If it finally does change in Mid March (which I do believe will happen based on my scientific findings while researching the tale of Orange Othelia) I’ll pass and will actually find it more annoying and frustrating than enjoyable.

Sure it might mean some late season snow events even a couple of big ones up my way and of course the April blizzard for the NYC area coastal plain also predicted by Othelia, but I’ve reached the point in my life when December, January and February were already ruined and as bad as I’ve ever seen in my lifetime, so don’t throw me mid March to mid April late season pity snows, an April blizzard and cold.

One bitter, snowless, iceless, winterless, mans opinion.

Who are you kidding CP. You will be dancing naked in the snow if we get anything significant later this month or in March.

Mostly true.

For the sake of the neighbors and so as not to traumatize them I would wear a Speedo.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Fwiw, 12z GFS is back to showing several inches of snow across the area for the 2/23 event and still showing a follow-up storm a few days later. Again, not taking the model runs verbatim this far out, nor urging anyone to put on their snowsuits and polish their shovels.
Just noting that for my money the setup showing up on the models, and the fact that there is more than one opportunity to cash in on, is one of the more positive I've seen this entire winter (which has been devoid of almost any positivity) so it bears some watching. Obviously for now only here in the long range thread (certainly would be too early for its own thread). By no means do I begrudge anyone their "I'll believe it when I see it" vibes, as I largely share them at this point.

I am fully expecting this to gradually cut west and give us the December scenario of snow to rain. A sloppy 1-2 inches my area washed away before it ends and cold rain on the coastal plain. Why should things change now.

Weather channel app saying 3-7 inches for Orange County on the 23rd. I’m sure that may even increase over the next couple of days before the eventual outcome that I outlined above.

[heehaw453]

Fwiw, 12z GFS is back to showing several inches of snow across the area for the 2/23 event and still showing a follow-up storm a few days later. Again, not taking the model runs verbatim this far out, nor urging anyone to put on their snowsuits and polish their shovels.
Just noting that for my money the setup showing up on the models, and the fact that there is more than one opportunity to cash in on, is one of the more positive I've seen this entire winter (which has been devoid of almost any positivity) so it bears some watching. Obviously for now only here in the long range thread (certainly would be too early for its own thread). By no means do I begrudge anyone their "I'll believe it when I see it" vibes, as I largely share them at this point.

I am fully expecting this to gradually cut west and give us the December scenario of snow to rain. A sloppy 1-2 inches my area washed away before it ends and cold rain on the coastal plain. Why should things change now.

Weather channel app saying 3-7 inches for Orange County on the 23rd. I’m sure that may even increase over the next couple of days before the eventual outcome that I outlined above.

Yep agree on that.  You know the deal any wave that amplifies a bit too much will cut through the resistance like a hot knife on butter.  The difference here is there is more cold air to work with and normally L pressure will want to follow the baroclinic warmth. But a bad track cuts down any upside and this winter is the perpetual bad track.

[billg315]

The initial Low almost certainly tracks to our west. I think the question is does it "transfer" its energy to a secondary off the coast which would keep the cold air in-place on its backside. An initial burst of snow changing to rain scenario is definitely in play and would minimize the impact. But so too could be a snow to mix back to snow scenario which would be more favorable for accumulations.

[billg315]

There does appear to be stout High Pressure to our north and a 50/50 Low at least on some of the model runs thus far, so those are favorable factors.

[heehaw453]

There does appear to be stout High Pressure to our north and a 50/50 Low at least on some of the model runs thus far, so those are favorable factors.

Definitely good things you point out and it's too soon to take this op model too seriously one way or another, but when I look at this z500 what strikes me is the -PNA.  If this is true then s/w amplification will occur in the mid part of the country and they most certainly will cut right through the H pressure.  Snow to start and then tainting quickly. Again too soon to rule anything out, but just have seen this misaligned z500 too many times this winter and it looks like more of the same to my eye. 

[amugs]

"Houston,...The Eagle has landed." Well maybe not the distance from the earth to the moon but the GFS is predicting that impacts from #PolarVortex disruption currently at 70,000 feet in the atmosphere will reach the surface in two weeks. Blog goes public with update later today. pic.twitter.com/UmEUfMizKq

— Judah Cohen (@judah47) February 15, 2023

End of February and 1st weesk of March we can see these effects - how much remains to be seen. It tries to recover but can't and may take us through April with these effects if it does stabilize and then get destroyed.

[amugs]

If this does occur with a retrograding SER into the GOM it allows the TPV to drop down as indicated in this map, could spell some interesting times for wintry possibilities.

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