Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

[heehaw453]

Models starting to show the trailing energy blow up in more favorable areas.  18Z GFS is Delmarva where the 12Z Euro was off Jersey Coast.  Tomorrow it'll be Portland ME folks.

[amugs]

All but 5 of the 51 ECMWF ensemble runs (i.e. 90%) have a tech. sudden stratospheric warming event sometime 15th-17th Feb.

The mean hits -10 m/s which would be good going for a displacement type event (the current majority vote).

A few hit -20 or lower, impressive territory. pic.twitter.com/OS4XgjNQzC

— James Peacock (@peacockreports) February 6, 2023

This could be terrible for our Met Spring if not end of February!!! Argghhh

[weatherwatchermom]

All but 5 of the 51 ECMWF ensemble runs (i.e. 90%) have a tech. sudden stratospheric warming event sometime 15th-17th Feb.

The mean hits -10 m/s which would be good going for a displacement type event (the current majority vote).

A few hit -20 or lower, impressive territory. pic.twitter.com/OS4XgjNQzC

— James Peacock (@peacockreports) February 6, 2023

This could be terrible for our Met Spring if not end of February!!! Argghhh

Mugs do I want to know what this means if you translate into English??

[amugs]

I hope for an Major Warming. Chance 60-90%!
ECMWF looks good! If it doesn't Work this time, I'll never Trust the Models again for such a period of time.#MajorWarming #ssw #Winter #PolarVortex@judah47 @PvForecast pic.twitter.com/raWsPDZrim

— Marcel (@Marcel_FFF) February 6, 2023

Mom it means that it could majorly disrupt or split the Polar Vortex like it did in Dec but more so 2018 that could bring cold and wintry precipitation conditions to our area for a short ot extended period of time.

[Frank_Wx]

The storm threat toward the middle of the month looks kinda legit

Still watching this one. Unfortunately, we’re devoid of cold air to the coast. If it’s going to rain I hope it stays out to sea. But there are ways we can get the cold temps, just need better phasing.

[heehaw453]

Agreed Frank.  Here's my bull case for why GFS may be on to something for Saturday night.  My expectation now is we could see some minor snowfall, but things need to align well even for that as shown. Expect nada as of now.

[sroc4]

The storm threat toward the middle of the month looks kinda legit

Still watching this one. Unfortunately, we’re devoid of cold air to the coast. If it’s going to rain I hope it stays out to sea. But there are ways we can get the cold temps, just need better phasing.

GFS 00z and 06z trying to hold energy back, cut it off from the mean flow, close it off, generating its own cold air, and passing the closed 500mb low south of LI. CMC and Euro overnight say no to that soln. Well to a degree euro closes off the energy too but later and pushes it much further south. CMC wants nothing to do with closing off the energy.

Right now I think the GFS soln is at about 25% odds of happening. (probably generous given this years Wall/Wing solns)

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/z500_barbs/1675728000/1676224800-RAeKw3sWMnI.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/z500_barbs/1675728000/1676224800-95sGrVmnxpE.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/conus/z500_barbs/1675728000/1676224800-I2bCROyfCVY.png

[sroc4]

Agreed Frank.  Here's my bull case for why GFS may be on to something for Saturday night.  My expectation now is we could see some minor snowfall, but things need to align well even for that as shown. Expect nada as of now.

Problem is is its not really digging. Its just cutting off from the mean flow. This must generate its own cold air to work. Its possible, but right now GFS only one maturing the cutoff, vs euro/cmc are just a weak cutoff that passes well south.

[heehaw453]

Sroc I'm going to disagree on the digging trough.  What the GFS depicts at 06Z is a digging trough.  The ULL is able to close off because it's tethered to the n/s and the 50/50 low starts to dampen heights which slows the flow down a tad to help the ULL energy consolidate better.  At least that's how I see it.  I also see this as a long shot in a terrible winter, but on the other hand if something like this was to work out February is the month I'd expect to see it. GFS could very well go back to nada at 12Z if any of that consolidation is just a bit off.

[heehaw453]

12Z GFS showed the storm.  A bit late on consolidation and didn't make the turn up the coast.  There will probably be a storm and whether or not we see a flake is another matter. As of right now unlikely we see accumulating snow but my guess is some folks on the EC will.  Interior mid Atlantic would be my best guess ATTM.

[sroc4]

Sroc I'm going to disagree on the digging trough.  What the GFS depicts at 06Z is a digging trough.  The ULL is able to close off because it's tethered to the n/s and the 50/50 low starts to dampen heights which slows the flow down a tad to help the ULL energy consolidate better.  At least that's how I see it.  I also see this as a long shot in a terrible winter, but on the other hand if something like this was to work out February is the month I'd expect to see it. GFS could very well go back to nada at 12Z if any of that consolidation is just a bit off.

I think we are both looking at the same box, but from slight diff perspectives.  There seems to be two aspects to this set up.  One is like you said we get Pac energy dropping into the heart land, ie: digging trough, as a result of the ridge.  But there is a potent N Pac jet extension that drives energy into the NW quadrant of the ridge completely knocking it down, and causing our energy to cutoff from the mean flow as it approaches the Tennessee valley.  It also cuts off energy along the west coast which backs up SW into the Cali/Baha Peninsula area.  

Ill add some images shortly to make things clearer.  Where a cutoff ULL occurs, and then moves is going to be extremely diff to predict.  If it doesnt cutoff, IMHO of course, then it remains tied to the mean trough, and results in no more than a strung out front of vorticity embedded within a very progressive trough and there wont even be a storm.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I really admire the both of you (Sroc and Heehaw).

This pattern is actually more boring than watching paint dry, but yet the two of you will go back into the room every hour just to watch it to make sure it’s still drying.

Not meant in a negative way, I just find your perseverance admirable. I just wish it would pay off before the end of Wing.

[heehaw453]

Sroc I'm going to disagree on the digging trough.  What the GFS depicts at 06Z is a digging trough.  The ULL is able to close off because it's tethered to the n/s and the 50/50 low starts to dampen heights which slows the flow down a tad to help the ULL energy consolidate better.  At least that's how I see it.  I also see this as a long shot in a terrible winter, but on the other hand if something like this was to work out February is the month I'd expect to see it. GFS could very well go back to nada at 12Z if any of that consolidation is just a bit off.

I think we are both looking at the same box, but from slight diff perspectives.  There seems to be two aspects to this set up.  One is like you said we get Pac energy dropping into the heart land, ie: digging trough, as a result of the ridge.  But there is a potent N Pac jet extension that drives energy into the NW quadrant of the ridge completely knocking it down, and causing our energy to cutoff from the mean flow as it approaches the Tennessee valley.  It also cuts off energy along the west coast which backs up SW into the Cali/Baha Peninsula area.  

Ill add some images shortly to make things clearer.  Where a cutoff ULL occurs, and then moves is going to be extremely diff to predict.  If it doesnt cutoff, IMHO of course, then it remains tied to the mean trough, and results in no more than a strung out front of vorticity embedded within a very progressive trough and there wont even be a storm.

Yep, the fast PAC flow is ubiquitous and count on it every storm threat. IT will push up on the ridge and want to push things forward.  Models showing a cutoff ULL today.  But it still may get not make the turn up the coast due that force.  I agree cutoff ULL has a mind of its own so just have to watch the next day or so. IMO someone gets snow, but is it interior VA or NJ?  Take the under this year and you'll do well.

[heehaw453]

I really admire the both of you (Sroc and Heehaw).

This pattern is actually more boring than watching paint dry, but yet the two of you will go back into the room every hour just to watch it to make sure it’s still drying.

Not meant in a negative way, I just find your perseverance admirable. I just wish it would pay off before the end of Wing.

expectations are record breaking futility.  Very hard to stop a moving train in time.  nonetheless the occasional Hail Mary pass grabs my attention even though I know it's almost always going to hit the ground...

[amugs]

Nice lesn on the Euro EPS westward and makes a sizeable shift NW with the synoptic set up. Keep expectations in check and we'll see where this goes.





Energy more consolidated and robust and digging a bit more as well

[docstox12]

I really admire the both of you (Sroc and Heehaw).

This pattern is actually more boring than watching paint dry, but yet the two of you will go back into the room every hour just to watch it to make sure it’s still drying.

Not meant in a negative way, I just find your perseverance admirable. I just wish it would pay off before the end of Wing.

They both are admirable, but I think we are getting close to the time that it is similar to rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.In a normal Wall, I would be optimistic for late Feb. through March, but this God awful season makes one abandon all hope.I will stay on 25% optimistic hoping something will thread the needle because it is a long stretch until Nov when we can get accumulating snow.

[dkodgis]

Doc, I am even more optimistic. Let’s wait until next mid-Oct for our next accumulating snow.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Nice lesn on the Euro EPS westward and makes a sizeable shift NW with the synoptic set up. Keep expectations in check and we'll see where this goes.





Energy more consolidated and robust and digging a bit more as well

Expectations in check? Mugs they couldn’t be any lower, if it’s anything below 50° and sunny on Saturday I’ll consider the win.

[dkodgis]

Certainly I am blind, deaf, and dumb but it has not been lost on me that this season when it gets above 35 degrees and of course especially when it gets warmer...it rains.

It is raining here right now. It is 37 degrees. Thurs it will rain and be about 45 degrees.

Never cold enough when it rains. Rain, rain, rain. Moss, moss, moss.

[SENJsnowman]

Typically the first part of tracking any ‘threats’ this season has been to proclaim the Jersey coast has already been expressly eliminated from any potential snow fall. I could be wrong, but I don’t think that’s happened yet with this one. I’m assuming it’s just an oversight, but if any of our Mets want to go ahead and make it official…

[heehaw453]

Typically the first part of tracking any ‘threats’ this season has been to proclaim the Jersey coast has already been expressly eliminated from any potential snow fall. I could be wrong, but I don’t think that’s happened yet with this one. I’m assuming it’s just an oversight, but if any of our Mets want to go ahead and make it official…

So true...  It does seem like that so often.  This one is way too precarious to rule anyone out ATTM.  Temps are an issue for anyone in our area as the antecedent air mass isn't ideal.  Just depends on how much dynamic cooling can occur.

[billg315]

Looking at temperature projections for the 14 day period they look like two weeks in late March. Someone said last week (heehaw maybe?) that they doubt Feb will match January’s +10AN temps. Looking at the next two weeks, I’m not so sure. Lol.

[sroc4]

Looking at temperature projections for the 14 day period they look like two weeks in late March. Someone said last week (heehaw maybe?) that they doubt Feb will match January’s +10AN temps. Looking at the next two weeks, I’m not so sure. Lol.

If you look at how the MJO forecast is unfolding it's no question as to why this is.  In Feb you cannot run these MJO phases(3-4-5-6) with any kind of amplitude without it being AN to well AN temp wise in the east; combine this with our background La Nina state of course.

Unfortunately I am pretty confident that our "threat " for this weekend is going to fall victim to these big picture items.  All three major models, GFS, CMC, and Euro have our energy dip into the heart land compliments of a WC ridge.  At first glance this all starts off great.





As it does so a potent N Pac jet extension attacks the NW  flank of the ridge resulting in the northern half of the ridge "rolling over" from west to east in S Canada.  This results in the energy that is our system as well as a second batch of energy along the WC to cutt off from the mean flow of the polar jet stream.  This effectively cuts the CONUS off from the polar air mass from the beginning off the west coast; to all the way across the northern tear of country through the northern Atlantic.

 This MJO/La Nina combo is locking the door to any cold air source. Plain and simple.  The only air mass our system has to draw from is Pac or subtropical to draw from as it reaches the coast.  It has to generate its own cold air meaning it has to be potent enough to draw cold air "down" from the upper levels via the nature of its vortex.  (Think of it like a whirl pool of wind.  Your boat starts on the edges of the whirl pool and as it goes round and round and gets drawn into the center is lowers in height of the vortex.  This i what is needed to draw the cold air down to work this weekend.)  

I'm afraid that even with the perfect track this weekend this system will fail most if not all of us.  

[heehaw453]

There probably will be a closed off ULL that tracks in a favorable spot on Sunday night. Feel pretty good about that.  The concern has been the boundary layers thermal profiles.  First and foremost there is NO engine pumping in cold air aka 1035mb+ H parked in Quebec or upper mid-west nor is the antecedent air mass cold.  Unless you get a storm to bomb out at your latitude and crank CCB it's not going to have sufficient lift for dynamic cooling. If either or both places where X is had that High pressure this would be 6-12" no problem. Mother Nature has spoken and it's not going snow here this winter and I have accepted it and hope for better fortunes next year. 

[heehaw453]

Looking at temperature projections for the 14 day period they look like two weeks in late March. Someone said last week (heehaw maybe?) that they doubt Feb will match January’s +10AN temps. Looking at the next two weeks, I’m not so sure. Lol.

February normal in CPK 35.9.  Currently after 1 week it's running -2.3 BN. We're not going +10 this month and this day was the nail in the coffin. Now not say we won't be well AN like a +4, but that's par for the course in winter around here.

2023-02-04

27

3

15.0

-19.0

[Frank_Wx]

Pattern continues to look awful.

Winter cancel. Maybe March delivers a surprise.

[MattyICE]

I have little doubt that we snap out of this persistent, unfavorable pattern. Maybe the stratosphere helps us do that or maybe it’s the weakening Nina. Regardless, something will swing the pendulum the other way. The problem is that could very easily mean a cold, stormy, rainy, dreary April. I don’t have the statistics handy, but I would be shocked if we just continued this way all the way through a warm spring and hot summer. Obviously the best of hope would result in maybe a 2-3 week slightly more favorable late winter period in mid-March, but then the usual caveats apply (wavelengths, track, sun angle, more daylight etc…). While I hope for that scenario since that’s all we really have left to hope for, We know it’s not a good spot to be in when we’re hoping on a SSWE Hail Mary.

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