Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I can add nothing to the scientific analysis that Heehaw and Sroc bring to these setups so all I can add is this.

In keeping with my limited knowledge and the trusty weather app, and the last threat on the 23rd having morphed into the usual mild rainy event with highs in the upper 40’s let’s move on to the 25th.

Right now I’m forecast for a high of 32 with 2-6 inches of snow. A virtual blizzard of 88 for this winter. In Keeping with the consistent trends of this entire season by Monday or Tuesday this will be forecast for an inch or less of snow with highs in the mid 40’s. And I’m 50 miles north of NYC in the metros cold area.

[heehaw453]

I can add nothing to the scientific analysis that Heehaw and Sroc bring to these setups so all I can add is this.

In keeping with my limited knowledge and the trusty weather app, and the last threat on the 23rd having morphed into the usual mild rainy event with highs in the upper 40’s let’s move on to the 25th.

Right now I’m forecast for a high of 32 with 2-6 inches of snow. A virtual blizzard of 88 for this winter. In Keeping with the consistent trends of this entire season by Monday or Tuesday this will be forecast for an inch or less of snow with highs in the mid 40’s. And I’m 50 miles north of NYC in the metros cold area.

I think the 25th's biggest obstacle is the weak s/w aided by the -PNA.  Just may not get enough s/w development precip for snowfall.  Probably will be cold enough, but end result may still be no snow OTG. So we fail when it's cold enough and of course we do well at failing with moisture rich cutters.  

[heehaw453]

Probably will be a wind swept rain storm, but definitely signal for some bombs end of February. I'm a sucker for the 50/50, blocking and some hints of PNA ridging.

[heehaw453]

Going to still say Saturday night a lot of the area sees snow.  Was initially hoping for 1-3", but s/w action will determine if that's feasible or not.  For now the golden standard c-1" is my thoughts.

[heehaw453]

The 28th threat is going to be about flow compression.  If n/s troughing is a bit more aggressive then the below ULL in IL will be further south. This may very well be a rain storm for the area, but HL blocking, established 50/50 low and a TPV being pinched on leads me believe it's not set in stone quite yet. 

[heehaw453]

18Z GFS will give you an idea of how delicate and uncertain 2/28 outcome is.  Just a little more spacing in the ULL to disconnect from the western trough makes it just a bit weaker and dramatically reduces its propensity to cut.  The ridge gives it a little push to get out ahead of the trough. That's what the models were doing a few days ago with this but even more separation.

[heehaw453]

This 2/28 storm will probably be a rain storm for our area, but big spread on the ensembles.  To me it looks like a Miller B that develops later for NNE snows.  Not quite a wrap, but next few days will probably get us wrapped up.

[Irish]

This 2/28 storm will probably be a rain storm for our area.

Edited for time saving purposes.

[heehaw453]

This 2/28 storm will probably be a rain storm for our area.

Edited for time saving purposes.

Probably, but there's 2 things stand out with this.  One is a rise in the PNA at the time of storm and a sig drop in the NAO.  Those two things sucker me in longer than I should even bother. Most likely Miller B and SNE on north has the best shot at a snow storm. But the split in the ensembles is quite large at D6+. Models don't pick up on the effects of blocking well until 3-4 days out. The NAO drops are sometimes associated with Archambault events.

[amugs]

Now in line with OLR maps and this would help bigly in March as the trough sets up over the EC and the deathly PNA trough gets pushed out. This is a moderate Phase 8 with a fair portion going strong and even into 1.

[heehaw453]

Latest EPS run.  It's becoming clear this is going to be Miller B.  The only way they work for our area is if they develop off DE and explode. The Atlantic is plugged up and this won't be a fast mover as it starts to intensify.  Whoever is lucky enough to be above the latitude where it explodes is going to probably be in for a treat. Right now SNE and up is best guess.  But there is enough doubt where that happens to raise an eyebrow for now.

[heehaw453]

Drop this ULL about 100 miles.  The effects of the blocking and the 50/50 low confluence won't be flushed out for a bit.  Give it another 2-3 days before we pull the plug on this one. I think it's going to be close.

[heehaw453]

What I like about guidance recently for 2/28 is the Miller B secondary development is pretty much due east movement.  That feels like to me the 50/50 is really compressing heights and it's a matter of the block being able to squeeze the primary lower.  Any bit of confluence that can get in the way of the primary will have a dramatic effect on the outcome.  That would force the redevelopment sooner and keep the columns much colder.  There is also H pressure in Quebec. Maybe that's a hair stronger than modelled.

[jmanley32]

I so wish I could get at all excited even if fantasy for march 4-5th time frame last few days of some GFS runs has a huge coastal which if it ever happened (which it wont) would be the entire boards normal seasonal snowfall. Though technically is March considered Winter snowfall.

[sroc4]

Euro is tantalizing. How I loath this hobby sometimes.

Jon I hope to God you are not even thinking about getting excited about anything beyond day 3.

[heehaw453]

Euro is tantalizing.  How I loath this hobby sometimes.  

Jon I hope to God you are not even thinking about getting excited about anything beyond day 3.  

It's going to come down to the strength and orientation of the block and 50/50 IMO.  A bit stronger and it develops that much further south as well as stalls out the low. Again, I think it's going to be close, but just may miss the mark.  This hobby is rough on the psyche this winter.

[sroc4]

Euro is tantalizing.  How I loath this hobby sometimes.  

Jon I hope to God you are not even thinking about getting excited about anything beyond day 3.  

It's going to come down to the strength and orientation of the block and 50/50 IMO.  A bit stronger and it develops that much further south as well as stalls out the low. Again, I think it's going to be close, but just may miss the mark.  This hobby is rough on the psyche this winter.

Couldnt agree more.  If that SOI persists in the negatives for the next several days, and or the OLR percolates in favorable locations AND we see colder trends I just may believe there is some merit there.  

However, if the OLR persists over the Western Pac and the SOI begins to shift back into positive territory then there is a very  good chance we see our -NAO trends more east based and or weaker, the 50/50 low moving out faster as a result, and the energy trending stronger such that the SE ridge flexes flooding mid levels with warmth out ahead, and the primary cuts too far N&W before any meaningful transfer.  As we all know this has been our pattern/trend all season, but as stated earlier eventually the atmosphere is going to change its primary forcing.  Is this that time?  Watch the SOI, MJO, and OLR forecasts and they will likely tell you.

[heehaw453]

Euro is tantalizing.  How I loath this hobby sometimes.  

Jon I hope to God you are not even thinking about getting excited about anything beyond day 3.  

It's going to come down to the strength and orientation of the block and 50/50 IMO.  A bit stronger and it develops that much further south as well as stalls out the low. Again, I think it's going to be close, but just may miss the mark.  This hobby is rough on the psyche this winter.

Couldnt agree more.  If that SOI persists in the negatives for the next several days, and or the OLR percolates in favorable locations AND we see colder trends I just may believe there is some merit there.  

However, if the OLR persists over the Western Pac and the SOI begins to shift back into positive territory then there is a very  good chance we see our -NAO trends more east based and or weaker, the 50/50 low moving out faster as a result, and the energy trending stronger such that the SE ridge flexes flooding mid levels with warmth out ahead, and the primary cuts too far N&W before any meaningful transfer.  As we all know this has been our pattern/trend all season, but as stated earlier eventually the atmosphere is going to change its primary forcing.  Is this that time?  Watch the SOI, MJO, and OLR forecasts and they will likely tell you.

This is moving in the right direction on EPS.  Whether or not it keeps moving that way is another matter.  But this EPS would get 'r done IMO.

Huge lean SE from the primary. Aided by strengthening block and robust far reaching 50/50  the storm would have no choice but to develop south and crawl.

[heehaw453]

I'll make another observation on this.  Based on some boards chatter folks in NE are thinking this is the big one. Sure it maybe, but a few more bumps south on the primary and this may become a LHV/LI/NYC special. I don't think the secondary is going to gain much latitude.  Heights are too compressed. Once it explodes she's going east and possibly slightly south of east. It's one mean looking 50/50.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I'll make another observation on this.  Based on some boards chatter folks in NE are thinking this is the big one. Sure it maybe, but a few more bumps south on the primary and this may become a LHV/LI/NYC special. I don't think the secondary is going to gain much latitude.  Heights are too compressed. Once it explodes she's going east and possibly slightly south of east. It's one mean looking 50/50.

You and Sroc have to stop doing this to me. As I stare out at moderate snow that I know is becoming freezing rain tonight and eventually rain, you have me somewhat believing we could finally, at least in parts of our forum, get a decent snowfall next week.

What you both say makes a lot of sense but of course it’s still a long way off. Just because the way things have gone this year I’ll keep my expectations at nothing and assume this will take the path of every other storm this year and fizzle out into oblivion.

As always I hope I’m wrong.

[heehaw453]

I'll make another observation on this.  Based on some boards chatter folks in NE are thinking this is the big one. Sure it maybe, but a few more bumps south on the primary and this may become a LHV/LI/NYC special. I don't think the secondary is going to gain much latitude.  Heights are too compressed. Once it explodes she's going east and possibly slightly south of east. It's one mean looking 50/50.

You and Sroc have to stop doing this to me. As I stare out at moderate snow that I know is becoming freezing rain tonight and eventually rain, you have me somewhat believing we could finally, at least in parts of our forum, get a decent snowfall next week.

What you both say makes a lot of sense but of course it’s still a long way off. Just because the way things have gone this year I’ll keep my expectations at nothing and assume this will take the path of every other storm this year and fizzle out into oblivion.

As always I hope I’m wrong.

Need at least another 4-5 cycle runs of seeing the blocking tend stronger with more resistance on the primary.  If that happens your area is going get something and maybe a lot of something.  If not then it's a snow storm for CNE and NNE. I'm in your camp and it needs to be way more imminent than what we got now before believing it. But nonetheless we'll track it.

[heehaw453]

The GEFS is getting there. I'll look at op runs tomorrow more closely. What I have circled may very well keep the primary ULL from cutting.  The SER is basically getting pinched between the block and the 50/50. I don't believe in this just yet.  Need more way more cycle runs.

[jmanley32]

Euro is tantalizing.  How I loath this hobby sometimes.  

Jon I hope to God you are not even thinking about getting excited about anything beyond day 3.  

re-read my post, not excited at all. Though below analysis gave me a little shred of hope I guess, honestly at this point I'm neutral, if it happens great if it doesn't great I don't have to break my unconditioned back shoveling lol. It is getting to the part of the year where I would rather have sustained warmth in 3 to 4 weeks or so and lets say the .1% chance we have of get buried in march happened then it would not leave until april.

[amugs]

The trend is starting to show the effects of the N NAO and 50/50 low at this stage. 6 days to go which means nada this winter BUT we shall see. This is what we want to see continue.

Remember I said Jim Witt said March 3-5th intense storminess for east coast???? High energy sun cycle. It's gonna happen.

[heehaw453]

I want believe this latest EPS for next Tuesday.  I really do.  As the new Low takes over it gets an injection of energy blowing up the ULL aided by the PNA rise. I'd like to see that PNA rise a bit more forcing that ULL to dig more.

[amugs]

I want believe this latest EPS for next Tuesday.  I really do.  As the new Low takes over it gets an injection of energy blowing up the ULL aided by the PNA rise. I'd like to see that PNA rise a bit more forcing that ULL to dig more.

I'd like to see alot too but we have to take what we can get and hope the block is a tad stronger along with 50/50 thatbwould help. PAC is not ready to help until a few days later as it looks to transition.

[amugs]

I want believe this latest EPS for next Tuesday.  I really do.  As the new Low takes over it gets an injection of energy blowing up the ULL aided by the PNA rise. I'd like to see that PNA rise a bit more forcing that ULL to dig more.

I'd like to see alot too but we have to take what we can get and hope the block is a tad stronger along with 50/50 thatbwould help. PAC is not ready to help until a few days later as it looks to transition.

This is what I mean,  a positive trend over the past 3 runs. Needs this to hold and keep ticking west with the ridge and the NAO block and 50/50 build the confluence to shove the SW more S. If we get these going then things improve on the surface depiction more.
 From 33nRain board Brooklyn

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