Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[heehaw453]

If I were early betting on where substantial snow (4+") threat falls for early next week it'd be here in this ellipse especially with elevation > 1000'.  Not to say > 1600' areas of Poconos, Sullivan Cty or NW NJ cannot get in on the act as we've seen don't doubt the elevation aspect.

[jmanley32]

WOW!! I know it is over the ocean but this speaks to that it will be impactful with wind even along and slightly in from coast. Surprising they are already calling this.

Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
1045 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to Monmouth County out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Gale-force winds and/or very rough seas are forecast on Sunday.
Hurricane-force winds and/or dangerously high seas are expected
on Monday.
Storm-force winds and/or very high seas are expected on Tuesday.

Please go to weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=phi for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

[amugs]

EURO now flips bigly!!! Lets see subsequent runs if this holds 10 days out.

Rb is a winner for the period after the 18th as did JB - said it would be a transitions storm that kick starts us, phase 8 dirty work here??

You have a W based NAO block, Nuetral to Negative EPO ridge setting up, and a N AO setting up.

[jmanley32]

EURO now flips bigly!!! Lets see subsequent runs if this holds 10 days out.

Rb is a winner for the period after the 18th as did JB - said it would be a transitions storm that kick starts us, phase 8 dirty work here??

You have a W based NAO block, Nuetral to Negative EPO ridge setting up, and a N AO setting up.

In terms of the 18th storm or for the future, or both?

[amugs]

EURO now flips bigly!!! Lets see subsequent runs if this holds 10 days out.

Rb is a winner for the period after the 18th as did JB - said it would be a transitions storm that kick starts us, phase 8 dirty work here??

You have a W based NAO block, Nuetral to Negative EPO ridge setting up, and a N AO setting up.

In terms of the 18th storm or for the future, or both?

Future after teh 18th.

[rb924119]

Both major suites show the coastal coming up the coast late Sunday into Monday. In fact, it’s been awhile since we have seen a triple phase storm at 500mb. That is a perk of El Niño patterns, where the STJ (sub tropical jet) contributes “juice” into our eastern seaboard storms. You can clearly see the 3 pieces of energy here valid Sunday morning on the 6z GFS.



Normally when we talk triple phase in the middle of December, this forums entire appearance changes to storm mode and I’m calling for a Roidzilla. Sadly I’m not sure that will be the case this time around. The Pacific energy is too potent - hence all the Pacific jet extension talk the last two days - as it attempts to close off over the Central part of the country which raises heights along the east coast. It may even try to partially phase with northern energy and turn into a big vortex, which ends up tracking east to phase with the STJ energy. The 500mb setup just doesn’t feel right for snow in my opinion. When both the AO and NAO are positive, it normally means there isn’t enough cold air / enough wave length that allows east coast storms to bomb out.

I’m not sure if you saw my video yet, Frank, but I argue (respectfully, of course lol) that although we don’t have a true statistical -NAO or -AO, the way that the Northern Hemispheric pattern is aligned, we will end up with a pseudo -NAO/AO couplet. Assuming this is the case, I believe that it will slow the bowling ball low down over the Southeast, and with the added momentum in the northern jet, we should see the arrival of a fourth piece of energy, which would be the source of a fresh “cold enough” airmass and high pressure building in behind and bridging over the top of our storm, allowing for a steady supply of “cold enough” air throughout the storm (or at least a majority of it). Yea, I think the coast will still have issues, but I also think that the coast has a legitimate shot to see an accumulating snow from this. I think the modeling *may be* starting to catch on to this idea, but we’ll see how future runs play out. We track!

Basically a triple single at play or a Quad Parley at play? Amazing.
Give this to us again in Januray in a phase 8 or 1 and Frank loses his mind LOL!!!

Hahaha let’s go with the triple single, because the models are trying to figure out Who’s on First right now with respect to the storm

Some of your younger posters/lurkers may not understand that reference, but I’ll bet a lot of you did haha

[rb924119]

Both major suites show the coastal coming up the coast late Sunday into Monday. In fact, it’s been awhile since we have seen a triple phase storm at 500mb. That is a perk of El Niño patterns, where the STJ (sub tropical jet) contributes “juice” into our eastern seaboard storms. You can clearly see the 3 pieces of energy here valid Sunday morning on the 6z GFS.



Normally when we talk triple phase in the middle of December, this forums entire appearance changes to storm mode and I’m calling for a Roidzilla. Sadly I’m not sure that will be the case this time around. The Pacific energy is too potent - hence all the Pacific jet extension talk the last two days - as it attempts to close off over the Central part of the country which raises heights along the east coast. It may even try to partially phase with northern energy and turn into a big vortex, which ends up tracking east to phase with the STJ energy. The 500mb setup just doesn’t feel right for snow in my opinion. When both the AO and NAO are positive, it normally means there isn’t enough cold air / enough wave length that allows east coast storms to bomb out.

I’m not sure if you saw my video yet, Frank, but I argue (respectfully, of course lol) that although we don’t have a true statistical -NAO or -AO, the way that the Northern Hemispheric pattern is aligned, we will end up with a pseudo -NAO/AO couplet. Assuming this is the case, I believe that it will slow the bowling ball low down over the Southeast, and with the added momentum in the northern jet, we should see the arrival of a fourth piece of energy, which would be the source of a fresh “cold enough” airmass and high pressure building in behind and bridging over the top of our storm, allowing for a steady supply of “cold enough” air throughout the storm (or at least a majority of it). Yea, I think the coast will still have issues, but I also think that the coast has a legitimate shot to see an accumulating snow from this. I think the modeling *may be* starting to catch on to this idea, but we’ll see how future runs play out. We track!

If you look at the size of the ridge (SE of Greenland) that's clearly showing a very large blocking mechanism (pseudo -NAO). I'm on board with that. The antecedent air mass will be way too warm for any frozen precip and I think we can all agree on that. Now as the N/S comes down I agree that will inject cold air to the EC. What I'm struggling with though is that southern stream being slowed enough to allow for that n/s to capture in time. I can see your idea at play here though. Most times when I have hoped for good timing for snow I come up with this face

Agree that the antecedent airmass will be crap, 100%.

“What I'm struggling with though is that southern stream being slowed enough to allow for that n/s to capture in time. I can see your idea at play here though.”

Maybe I didn’t do a good enough job at explaining this, it’s not JUST that the system’s forward progression will be slowed, but you also have the momentum sink in the northern sub-tropics working to retrograde (or, retract) the entire pattern in that latitude belt. So really, at least conceptually, and *relative to the means*, you have the southern stream actually slowing, but you also have a pattern retrogression relative to what the models were showing. So, what we should see, and we are starting to now, is see the whole pattern retract across the mid-latitudes. The PNA ridge should not have an appendage slipping down the east side as quickly. It should remain in tact as a result of that relative pattern retracting fighting that collapse. Now, that also should clear the way for that final piece of energy to come crashing in unimpeded, and the signal is becoming clear for that as well. Combine that with the slow progression of the storm itself, and this is how you end up with the earlier full phase and outcome I currently favor, which is a rain to snow storm.

[aiannone]

Now we have the models taking the low into Western NY lol

[tomsriversnowstorm]

I am not too worried about this storm. I never expect snow in December. I just hope it still is going to be a good pattern after like the models earlier today said.
"aiannone"]Now we have the models taking the low into Western NY lol[/quote]

[GreyBeard]

What's that saying "Don't shoot the messenger".

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/significant-storm-to-bring-rain-wind-to-east-coast-slowing-early-holiday-travel/1603236

Sorry rb, you are a man on a mission, but it looks like it might be mission impossible.

[tomsriversnowstorm]

Hey I was impressed that RB got as close as he did when no one else was even looking at a storm. The man is a genius. The nice thing is it is only December and mugs was saying earlier how things look great after the storm.

quote="GreyBeard"]What's that saying "Don't shoot the messenger"

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/significant-storm-to-bring-rain-wind-to-east-coast-slowing-early-holiday-travel/1603236

Sorry rb, you are a man on a mission, but it looks like it might be mission impossible.[/quote]

[amugs]

Euro seeing phase 8 here of thr MJO which is a cold and stormy phase.

Great explanation Rb and never really heard of Mid Latitude momentum. Dam I have so much more to learn. I know about Angular Momentum but this is new to me. Things are evolving to your ideas it seems. More adjustments to come hopefully and we get a semi 2002 Xmas redux!

[rb924119]

Both major suites show the coastal coming up the coast late Sunday into Monday. In fact, it’s been awhile since we have seen a triple phase storm at 500mb. That is a perk of El Niño patterns, where the STJ (sub tropical jet) contributes “juice” into our eastern seaboard storms. You can clearly see the 3 pieces of energy here valid Sunday morning on the 6z GFS.



Normally when we talk triple phase in the middle of December, this forums entire appearance changes to storm mode and I’m calling for a Roidzilla. Sadly I’m not sure that will be the case this time around. The Pacific energy is too potent - hence all the Pacific jet extension talk the last two days - as it attempts to close off over the Central part of the country which raises heights along the east coast. It may even try to partially phase with northern energy and turn into a big vortex, which ends up tracking east to phase with the STJ energy. The 500mb setup just doesn’t feel right for snow in my opinion. When both the AO and NAO are positive, it normally means there isn’t enough cold air / enough wave length that allows east coast storms to bomb out.

I’m not sure if you saw my video yet, Frank, but I argue (respectfully, of course lol) that although we don’t have a true statistical -NAO or -AO, the way that the Northern Hemispheric pattern is aligned, we will end up with a pseudo -NAO/AO couplet. Assuming this is the case, I believe that it will slow the bowling ball low down over the Southeast, and with the added momentum in the northern jet, we should see the arrival of a fourth piece of energy, which would be the source of a fresh “cold enough” airmass and high pressure building in behind and bridging over the top of our storm, allowing for a steady supply of “cold enough” air throughout the storm (or at least a majority of it). Yea, I think the coast will still have issues, but I also think that the coast has a legitimate shot to see an accumulating snow from this. I think the modeling *may be* starting to catch on to this idea, but we’ll see how future runs play out. We track!

Im at work so canyt spend a ton of time but I want to make a quick comment to Frank and Ray.  

First Frank if you actually look a little closer, well actually zoom out to the N American view, what you will see is that the first bit of energy that is the main energy for our system is actually of Pacific origin.  As it enters the NW CONUS is cuts off from the Mean flow of the Pac Jet Stream(JS) and digs into the SW CONUS.  Then the second pice of energy, ALSO of Pacific Jet origin enters the NW CONUS similarly and also cuts off from the mean flow.  They both then begfin to traverse Eastward.  So the image you posted above, hr78 you see both bits of energy which are both of Pac origin.  Then the third piece of energy in the GOM is of Sub Trop Jet origin (STJ).  As these cont moving east they phase.  So my point is that this is not a "Triple Phase" in the traditional sense, (Energy from the Polar, Pac and ST Jet phase to create a winter monster.  This is two pieces, both of Pac origin, phasing with a third piece of STJK origin. And all this occur beneath the Polar Jet.  





Now if you look at the 500mb, and you could look at 250 also, wind maps you see the door to the Polar jet stream is locked tighter than the vault at chase bank.  




Now the ideas of Rb(Ray) is that there will be another piece of energy that digs in from the Polar jet sooner and stronger than what is currently being modeled.  And this brings me to my second thought.  Ray in your video you discuss the fact that the ridging in the NW CONUS and WC of Canada is in a negative tilt.  I actually disagree with you that this enhances the ability of the s/w to dig with more efficiency than a neutral or positive tilted ridge.  I will def agree with wat you said in the video that if its too far positive in its tilt its more likely to cutoff and retrograde S & W.  However; I think a negatively tilted ridge in NW CONUS/WC  Canada, esp with this set up has been modeled thus far, a negative tilt esp too far neg, lessens the gradient on the eastern flank such that the ability for a nothern stream s/w to dig is lessened.  Whereas; a neutral tilt steepened the NW to SE gradient on the eastern flank of the ridge allowing more opportunity to dig deeper.  Ray Am I wrong in this logic?  obv depending on all the other features surrounding the ridge there is nuance to how negative, neutral or positive an axis could be to work out or not for any given situation for a ridge OR trough.  




Now of course as Im writing this the 12z GFS is coming in colder, to go along with Rays ideas to a degree, but just briefly going along with mine regarding the tilt of the western ridge axis the colder soln is because we are getting the polar jet to buckle in part because of energy digging in on the eastern flank of the WC ridging complex.  For the record Im still not breaking with the idea that we are not quite ready to snow similar to the snow map I posted for sunday into Monday.  





All good stuff!!


WE TRACK!!

To your first section regarding the source regions of vorticity, I have no qualms whatsoever about this

Regarding your second section and the impacts of the ridge orientation, you’re both wrong and right, it is kind of hard to explain haha if it’s too negatively tilted, then yes, it becomes prohibitive for downstream development. However, with our specific setup (and generally speaking), when a ridge is slightly negatively tilted and you have energy coming down the eastern flank, the angular momentum is such that it allows the energy to propagate more quickly and can more easily change its axis relative to the trough it’s entering. The best way that I can explain this is to think of a roller coaster coming off the top of the ascent. If the descent is steep, then as it approaches the bottom, it has to translate its momentum from being vertical (or in our case, north-south) to being horizontal so that the roller coaster doesn’t crash into the ground (vorticity can follow the stream flow). In order to do that, though, the energy has to slow down, because it has to wait for the advection of that energy to actually change the height field, and thus, the stream flow, axis orientation, and momentum as it approaches the base of the trough. However, when the eastern flank of the ridge is less steep, there is already a horizontal component to the momentum, so that it can more quickly  change direction without having to slow down as much. Basically, it can use the eastern flank of the ridge as a ramp. This also aids in strengthening/maturing the trough that it’s diving into, as once it reaches the base of the trough, you have centripetal acceleration, just like a roller coaster would (again, because you have more efficient transfer of momentum early on to maintain an overall faster propagation speed throughout the evolution).

Again, it’s really hard to try to explain, but I hope that kind of made sense? lol

And regarding your last section, I don’t really disagree, though I do think the coast is still in play too, albeit less so.

[rb924119]

To Rb's point - GFS starting to snows for NY state Catskills, Adirondacks and Green Mountains. Can we get this to be 8 hours sooner? then I believe into HV plus it will be??
Black arrows

Yes. IMO if the timing of the n/s + s/s (occlusion) is fast enough then I could see some snow to the coast. You would need the s/s to really crawl and hang enough energy close enough to the coast.

sroc is right too in that the "n/s" is not really polar per se, but IMO it would cold enough when you look at H pressure oozing down as modelled. That keeps the refrigerator in the ON position as opposed the furnace prior to that.

Bingo.

[rb924119]

If I were early betting on where substantial snow (4+") threat falls for early next week it'd be here in this ellipse especially with elevation > 1000'.  Not to say > 1600' areas of Poconos, Sullivan Cty or NW NJ cannot get in on the act as we've seen don't doubt the elevation aspect.

No real disagreement from this peanut gallery at this time since you put the threshold at 4” haha

[rb924119]

EURO now flips bigly!!! Lets see subsequent runs if this holds 10 days out.

Rb is a winner for the period after the 18th as did JB - said it would be a transitions storm that kick starts us, phase 8 dirty work here??

You have a W based NAO block, Nuetral to Negative EPO ridge setting up, and a N AO setting up.

I’m not alone, mugsy. I think this transition was pretty well agreed upon overall

[rb924119]

Now we have the models taking the low into Western NY lol

Seeing that, although I think is an overcorrection, and will likely come back east some; inside the benchmark, but off the coast. Models are notorious for “having issues” handling blocking events haha so between now and Sunday, expect all kinds of funky sh…….shtuff lol

[rb924119]

I am not too worried about this storm. I never expect snow in December. I just hope it still is going to be a good pattern after like the models earlier today said.
"aiannone"]Now we have the models taking the low into Western NY lol

[/quote]

It should be

[rb924119]

What's that saying "Don't shoot the messenger".

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/significant-storm-to-bring-rain-wind-to-east-coast-slowing-early-holiday-travel/1603236

Sorry rb, you are a man on a mission, but it looks like it might be mission impossible.

It could be. But if I’m going to be wrong, I’d much rather be wrong on my account and be able to learn from it than just regurgitate raw model output haha you can’t grow if you don’t leave your comfort zone - gotta be comfortable with being uncomfortable. And believe me, not having much model support up until this point, is pretty uncomfortable haha if I see a reason to adjust my thinking, I will, but right now, model trends at H5 seem to be in my favor, so like Braveheart, I’m HOLDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDing haha

[tomsriversnowstorm]

RB how do you think the pattern looks after the storm?

What's that saying "Don't shoot the messenger".

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/significant-storm-to-bring-rain-wind-to-east-coast-slowing-early-holiday-travel/1603236

Sorry rb, you are a man on a mission, but it looks like it might be mission impossible.

It could be. But if I’m going to be wrong, I’d much rather be wrong on my account and be able to learn from it than just regurgitate raw model output haha you can’t grow if you don’t leave your comfort zone - gotta be comfortable with being uncomfortable. And believe me, not having much model support up until this point, is pretty uncomfortable haha

[rb924119]

Hey I was impressed that RB got as close as he did when no one else was even looking at a storm. The man is a genius. The nice thing is it is only December and mugs was saying earlier how things look great after the storm.

quote="GreyBeard"]What's that saying "Don't shoot the messenger"

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/significant-storm-to-bring-rain-wind-to-east-coast-slowing-early-holiday-travel/1603236

Sorry rb, you are a man on a mission, but it looks like it might be mission impossible.

[/quote]

Thanks for the compliment but it’s not over yet - we still have four days to go.

[rb924119]

Euro seeing phase 8 here of thr MJO which is a cold and stormy phase.

Great explanation Rb and never really heard of Mid Latitude momentum. Dam I have so much more to learn. I know about Angular Momentum but this is new to me. Things are evolving to your ideas it seems. More adjustments to come hopefully and we get a semi 2002 Xmas redux!

Thanks, mugsy! I’m calling it mid-latitude momentum, but all it really is a discussion of the overall momentum budget, which I’m pretty sure you have seen discussions about before. I just used “mid-latitude momentum” to help describe the location haha angular momentum relates to my and Scott’s discussion about the efficiency of different ridge axis alignments. But we all have more to learn, man! Haha

I’m optimistic for sure, but we will see how things go!

[rb924119]

RB how do you think the pattern looks after the storm?

What's that saying "Don't shoot the messenger".

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/significant-storm-to-bring-rain-wind-to-east-coast-slowing-early-holiday-travel/1603236

Sorry rb, you are a man on a mission, but it looks like it might be mission impossible.

It could be. But if I’m going to be wrong, I’d much rather be wrong on my account and be able to learn from it than just regurgitate raw model output haha you can’t grow if you don’t leave your comfort zone - gotta be comfortable with being uncomfortable. And believe me, not having much model support up until this point, is pretty uncomfortable haha

This storm is likely going to be the catalyst that helps set the alignment of the North American pattern in a more favorable way for cold and snow. However, there are also other factors in play that should further enhance this pattern. I think things are going to get pretty wild, though, especially after the turn of the New Year.

[tomsriversnowstorm]

Now that would be amazing. If this delivers we are going to call you Santa RB

RB how do you think the pattern looks after the storm?

What's that saying "Don't shoot the messenger".

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/significant-storm-to-bring-rain-wind-to-east-coast-slowing-early-holiday-travel/1603236

Sorry rb, you are a man on a mission, but it looks like it might be mission impossible.

It could be. But if I’m going to be wrong, I’d much rather be wrong on my account and be able to learn from it than just regurgitate raw model output haha you can’t grow if you don’t leave your comfort zone - gotta be comfortable with being uncomfortable. And believe me, not having much model support up until this point, is pretty uncomfortable haha

This storm is likely going to be the catalyst that helps set the alignment of the North American pattern in a more favorable way for cold and snow. However, there are also other factors in play that should further enhance this pattern. I think things are going to get pretty wild, though, especially after the turn of the New Year.

[chief7]

https://files.usa-wx.com/monthly_2023_12/image.png.7ca0b60d36335a33213021206dc64a01.png

[rb924119]

HOLDDDDDDDDDDDD!!!!!!

[rb924119]

https://files.usa-wx.com/monthly_2023_12/image.png.7ca0b60d36335a33213021206dc64a01.png

Can’t access the image, chief.

[Sponsored content]