Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[amugs]

EPS are great.
5 days from now this looks ro start.
Thread should start tomorrow afternoon after 12Z.
It's on. 

[rb924119]

As I pointed out in another post. The arctic, possibly major, outbreak midish January is showing up. What was seen in Siberia and China maybe coming to a town near you, moderated for sure but bitter. A tremendous Cross Arctic Polar Flow!! 

YES SIR MUGSY!!! 1050+hPa pressure in the northern Plains, that’s crème de le crème cold air baby. Give me a building snowpack and we may as well be in the Arctic

[jmanley32]

Almost all are offshore, a great sign, and not one is well into land.

[Dunnzoo]

I'm not starting the thread on this one. Maybe wait another 24-36 hours or so? Thoughts?

Personally I think we can start one now, as the discussion is biasing toward this threat now, but, I’ll leave the decision up to the powers that be, because I’m fine with either decision haha

Not yet.  Just wait.  If Frank wants to do it then so be it.  But I say we take this threat over into the Jan obvs thread starting tomorrow morning, and then discuss anything that goes on from next Monday on here in the LR.  Call it superstitious but.....Im superstitious.  Giving it a separate thread is like talking about a no hitter in the 7th inning.  We all know what's at stake here. lol  

That’s fine - gives us more time to prepare the sacrifice and prayer to the pagan snow gods  lmao

LOL  And for Janet(Dunnzoo) to get the ice cubes in the back of her toilets....

I already have the icemaker on, I'll be ready!

[heehaw453]

As I pointed out in another post. The arctic, possibly major, outbreak midish January is showing up. What was seen in Siberia and China maybe coming to a town near you, moderated for sure but bitter. A tremendous Cross Arctic Polar Flow!! 

YES SIR MUGSY!!! 1050+hPa pressure in the northern Plains, that’s crème de le crème cold air baby. Give me a building snowpack and we may as well be in the Arctic

I thought those type of H's were only found in Greenland

[sroc4]

EPS are great.
5 days from now this looks ro start.
Thread should start tomorrow afternoon after 12Z.
It's on. 

No thread Mugs. Please I beg of you. Wait to 72 hrs. Hijack the January Observation thread. I beg of you

[sroc4]

As I pointed out in another post. The arctic, possibly major, outbreak midish January is showing up. What was seen in Siberia and China maybe coming to a town near you, moderated for sure but bitter. A tremendous Cross Arctic Polar Flow!! 

This image is incredible.

[rb924119]

As I pointed out in another post. The arctic, possibly major, outbreak midish January is showing up. What was seen in Siberia and China maybe coming to a town near you, moderated for sure but bitter. A tremendous Cross Arctic Polar Flow!! 

YES SIR MUGSY!!! 1050+hPa pressure in the northern Plains, that’s crème de le crème cold air baby. Give me a building snowpack and we may as well be in the Arctic

I thought those type of H's were only found in Greenland

I’ve only ever seen it once or twice that I can recall, and I think one might have been with the outbreak in 2016, when NYC hit 0 with no snow, and the other might have been in either the ‘13-‘14 or ‘14-‘15 season. Point is, it’s not too often. But if you build the right pattern, it’ll come

[aiannone]

As I pointed out in another post. The arctic, possibly major, outbreak midish January is showing up. What was seen in Siberia and China maybe coming to a town near you, moderated for sure but bitter. A tremendous Cross Arctic Polar Flow!! 

YES SIR MUGSY!!! 1050+hPa pressure in the northern Plains, that’s crème de le crème cold air baby. Give me a building snowpack and we may as well be in the Arctic

I thought those type of H's were only found in Greenland

I’ve only ever seen it once or twice that I can recall, and I think one might have been with the outbreak in 2016, when NYC hit 0 with no snow, and the other might have been in either the ‘13-‘14 or ‘14-‘15 season. Point is, it’s not too often. But if you build the right pattern, it’ll come

Would be icing on the cake if we did have snow on the ground when this outbreak comes!

[rb924119]

EPS are great.
5 days from now this looks ro start.
Thread should start tomorrow afternoon after 12Z.
It's on. 

No thread Mugs. Please I beg of you. Wait to 72 hrs. Hijack the January Observation thread. I beg of you

I’m so glad to know that I’m not alone with the passion of this stuff. I’m reading some of these posts out loud to my parents and they’re just shaking their heads laughing haha we’re all a bunch of nuts hahaha

[sroc4]

EPS are great.
5 days from now this looks ro start.
Thread should start tomorrow afternoon after 12Z.
It's on. 

No thread Mugs. Please I beg of you. Wait to 72 hrs. Hijack the January Observation thread. I beg of you

I’m so glad to know that I’m not alone with the passion of this stuff. I’m reading some of these posts out loud to my parents and they’re just shaking their heads laughing haha we’re all a bunch of nuts hahaha

Did you read the one where I said I was going to do snow angels in my underwear if I can get some snow in my back yard?  We just want a little of the white stuff. Is that too much to ask?

[rb924119]

EPS are great.
5 days from now this looks ro start.
Thread should start tomorrow afternoon after 12Z.
It's on. 

No thread Mugs. Please I beg of you. Wait to 72 hrs. Hijack the January Observation thread. I beg of you

I’m so glad to know that I’m not alone with the passion of this stuff. I’m reading some of these posts out loud to my parents and they’re just shaking their heads laughing haha we’re all a bunch of nuts hahaha

Did you read the one where I said I was going to do snow angels in my underwear if I can get some snow in my back yard?  We just want a little of the white stuff. Is that too much to ask?

Oo don’t worry, I seent it - I already bought the popcorn for that show

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Someone has to throw some cold water into everyone's face right now, with a major dose of reality.

I've seen the words historic, prolific, tremendous, Maps are underplaying the potential, and on and on. And with five long days to go before the storm is scheduled to begin.

It's already reminding me of anytime the stock market gets to the peak of a bubble right before it bursts, and not in a good way.

This will be rain for most in the forum and most likely a sloppy 2 to 4 inches for those of us in the north, which will then be washed away by the 40 to 45° temperatures three days later with rain.

Someone had to do it.

[MattyICE]

LOL. Alrightyyyy then.

[Irish]

[Irish]

[GreyBeard]

Interesting that the 3 major networks tonight made mention of a potential, impactful winter storm this Saturday night/Sunday timeframe, but as CP mentioned, by Tuesday the forecast was for rain with temps. in the low 50's.
Interesting because they normally are not on board this far out.

[hyde345]

Someone has to throw some cold water into everyone's face right now, with a major dose of reality.

I've seen the words historic, prolific, tremendous, Maps are underplaying the potential, and on and on. And with five long days to go before the storm is scheduled to begin.

It's already reminding me of anytime the stock market gets to the peak of a bubble right before it bursts, and not in a good way.

This will be rain for most in the forum and most likely a sloppy 2 to 4 inches for those of us in the north, which will then be washed away by the 40 to 45° temperatures three days later with rain.

Someone had to do it.

It's still days away but the way I see it areas that are along and north of 84 like us will see 6-10. NYC metro and Long island will have difficulty seeing significant accums, maybe 1-3. It's just a marginal airmass and 00z suite was warmer. There could also be flooding concerns with the mid week system and snow melt.

[rb924119]

That 00z Euro Op run looked darn good to me. I think it has room to come south about 50 miles, but overall, it looked really good. The changes aloft are exactly what we have been discussing, which is why I think it has room to come a little further south, but in my opinion, it’s handling this the best right now. GEM seems too high and tight, not enough representation of the blocking. And the GFS, which admittedly looked realgood at 00z, is still too inconsistent for me to take it seriously aloft. Honestly, I’m not even paying attention to it.

[rb924119]

Interesting that the Euro isn’t enthused with the dual jet structure, which doesn’t make sense to me. I think the GFS’ jet structure then blended with the Euro for everything else, and then shifted about 30-miles southeastward would be a very good forecast right now based on my ideas.

[docstox12]

Someone has to throw some cold water into everyone's face right now, with a major dose of reality.

I've seen the words historic, prolific, tremendous, Maps are underplaying the potential, and on and on. And with five long days to go before the storm is scheduled to begin.

It's already reminding me of anytime the stock market gets to the peak of a bubble right before it bursts, and not in a good way.

This will be rain for most in the forum and most likely a sloppy 2 to 4 inches for those of us in the north, which will then be washed away by the 40 to 45° temperatures three days later with rain.

Someone had to do it.

You beloved old curmudgeon, you, the best thrower of cold water I know,LOL.
We have to try very hard for this one, CP, just for the laughs when we see Doc doing a snow angel in his underwear.He is a man of his word and a picture of that will be truly legendary!
rb's mention of a 50 mile SE shift should put all of our listening area into snow.ATM I am all snow in the LHV as per NWS.

[dkodgis]

Go figure. I am sweating this one out. Lion King tickets, 4, in the city this Sunday. Timing is everything.

[jmanley32]

Someone has to throw some cold water into everyone's face right now, with a major dose of reality.

I've seen the words historic, prolific, tremendous, Maps are underplaying the potential, and on and on. And with five long days to go before the storm is scheduled to begin.

It's already reminding me of anytime the stock market gets to the peak of a bubble right before it bursts, and not in a good way.

This will be rain for most in the forum and most likely a sloppy 2 to 4 inches for those of us in the north, which will then be washed away by the 40 to 45° temperatures three days later with rain.

Someone had to do it.

It's still days away but the way I see it areas that are along and north of 84 like us will see 6-10. NYC metro and Long island will have difficulty seeing significant accums, maybe 1-3. It's just a marginal airmass and 00z suite was warmer. There could also be flooding concerns with the mid week system and snow melt.

according to previous posts from rb he has stated likely cold will be there for i-95 and coast unless u mran central coastal NJ then they may only see a few inches but i think nyc does nearly as well as pts n and w. Of course you guys always have the better chance but in this setup doesnt appear to be as big a worry. 00z gfs was very nice. But no model is consistent other thsn a storm will be coming. The other stuff we are still a ways from.

[Carvin]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TTMlWwO8tc
Check this out what do y’all think

[amugs]

The 13th storm doesn't cut - the GFS is showing it already go from Wisconsin to Western NY and we are in phase 2 into 3 by then, N EPO should press the storm. Give it time.

[MattyICE]

Seems like some trends pushing NW today. Many that have seen this play out before know that that can happen only to reverse closer in back to the SE. I’d expect that here but who really knows. I can’t help but remember December 2020 trending more and more NW til Binghamton ended up the jackpot. There still was plowable snow closer to the coast but nothing like what it could have been. RB was ALL over that call and was one of the few that warned that would happen. I’d be interested to see some comparison of that setup compared to this one.

[hyde345]

Someone has to throw some cold water into everyone's face right now, with a major dose of reality.

I've seen the words historic, prolific, tremendous, Maps are underplaying the potential, and on and on. And with five long days to go before the storm is scheduled to begin.

It's already reminding me of anytime the stock market gets to the peak of a bubble right before it bursts, and not in a good way.

This will be rain for most in the forum and most likely a sloppy 2 to 4 inches for those of us in the north, which will then be washed away by the 40 to 45° temperatures three days later with rain.

Someone had to do it.

It's still days away but the way I see it areas that are along and north of 84 like us will see 6-10. NYC metro and Long island will have difficulty seeing significant accums, maybe 1-3. It's just a marginal airmass and 00z suite was warmer. There could also be flooding concerns with the mid week system and snow melt.

according to previous posts from rb he has stated likely cold will be there for i-95 and coast unless u mran central coastal NJ then they may only see a few inches but i think nyc does nearly as well as pts n and w. Of course you guys always have the better chance but in this setup doesnt appear to be as big a worry. 00z gfs was very nice. But no model is consistent other thsn a storm will be coming. The other stuff we are still a ways from.

It still remains a precarious setup with marginal temps for NYC metro and coastal sections. 12z suite continues those concerns. Most of precip falling at night will help with accumulations but the best chances of 6+ are N and W. Still too early in the game for details.

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