Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[heehaw453]

I don't see much that catches my eye until just after the holiday period. I would really like for folks to get on the board in December. This z500 has some potential as shown.

[Irish]

MJO teles - can this ever chnage more than it has the last 7 days??
Now it says Phase 1 two days ago it was saying 8 and two before 7

I've learned that really, no one knows what they're doing!  

We're all going into this, like walking into a blizzard,  blind. 🤪

Given the past few years the appropriate analogy may be more like:  driving in a torrential down pour with shitty wipers.

That's hysterical! And so true!

[Wheezer]

What we don’t know about those MJO graphs is The statistical error +- , which I’m assuming is off the charts!! Different agencies can’t even agree on archived placement of the MJO. A new graph system of the subject needs to be researched for more accuracy since it has so much importance to global patterns

[sroc4]

What we don’t know about those MJO graphs is The statistical error +- , which I’m assuming is off the charts!!  Different agencies can’t even agree on archived placement of the MJO.  A new graph system of the subject needs to be researched for more accuracy since it has so much importance to global patterns

Great post

[heehaw453]

What we don’t know about those MJO graphs is The statistical error +- , which I’m assuming is off the charts!!  Different agencies can’t even agree on archived placement of the MJO.  A new graph system of the subject needs to be researched for more accuracy since it has so much importance to global patterns

Absolutely and data harvesting is probably very sparse since it's the middle of the ocean type of thing. We struggle to analyze s/w's that are in remote areas until they come ashore. Until that infrastructure improves we probably struggle to better predict it.

[amugs]

Like the MJO BUT the models have been consistent on this pattern since Rocktober and kicked it up in November!!


Aluetian Low, N EPO over AK, high heights over Arctic and Greenland, looks like a ridge bridge with a streaming Sub Tropical Jet. Let's hope its right and it produces.

[Frank_Wx]

There has been a sense of optimism that the long range will turn around after Christmas. While that still may be the case, I am definitely coming into this expressing some skepticism. I'm a little concerned about what the Stratosphere is doing, and what is happening in the northern Pacific. Feels like we can't escape the PAC jet, and the deep blue (cold) anomalies are persistent over the EPO domain.

In theory, we can see a trough develop over the eastern side of the country later this month. But if it's going to be cut off from the cross-polar flow / northern jet, that typically mitigates large storm threats and would keep us in a "thread the needle" type of pattern as we only have marginal cold to work with. Need MJO cooperation and for Canada to be the SOURCE of our cold air again. A big fat ridge over Canada is not good.

[heehaw453]

I dunno whether it's PAC jet this or that we seem to struggle. I think especially in a Nino consistent blocking would be helpful. If you look at the super nino 2016 (bottom pic) the major blizzard we had the good NAM state going prior to the storm. It pinned some 50/50 troughing too to buckle things up. I think that's the key for us. Until I see some turn around in the arctic I'm kinda skeptical.

[phil155]

There has been a sense of optimism that the long range will turn around after Christmas. While that still may be the case, I am definitely coming into this expressing some skepticism. I'm a little concerned about what the Stratosphere is doing, and what is happening in the northern Pacific. Feels like we can't escape the PAC jet, and the deep blue (cold) anomalies are persistent over the EPO domain.

In theory, we can see a trough develop over the eastern side of the country later this month. But if it's going to be cut off from the cross-polar flow / northern jet, that typically mitigates large storm threats and would keep us in a "thread the needle" type of pattern as we only have marginal cold to work with. Need MJO cooperation and for Canada to be the SOURCE of our cold air again. A big fat ridge over Canada is not good.

I agree with Frank and this pattern has been in place for a while, I was more hopeful for this winter a few weeks back but now I think I would revise my low snowfall predictions lower. Until this pattern changes we are out of luck

[heehaw453]

There has been a sense of optimism that the long range will turn around after Christmas. While that still may be the case, I am definitely coming into this expressing some skepticism. I'm a little concerned about what the Stratosphere is doing, and what is happening in the northern Pacific. Feels like we can't escape the PAC jet, and the deep blue (cold) anomalies are persistent over the EPO domain.

In theory, we can see a trough develop over the eastern side of the country later this month. But if it's going to be cut off from the cross-polar flow / northern jet, that typically mitigates large storm threats and would keep us in a "thread the needle" type of pattern as we only have marginal cold to work with. Need MJO cooperation and for Canada to be the SOURCE of our cold air again. A big fat ridge over Canada is not good.

I agree with Frank and this pattern has been in place for a while, I was more hopeful for this winter a few weeks back but now I think I would revise my low snowfall predictions lower. Until this pattern changes we are out of luck

Phil if CPK gets no measurable snowfall in December your 16.5" prediction looks really good IMO. I'll wait for the month to play out to crunch the numbers though...

[heehaw453]

This is probably the window IMO in terms of whether we can sneak in snow especially for the coastal plain for December. This works in a nino as shown not blockbuster stuff but a minor to possibly moderate type deal. Beginning of NAO and AO support and subtropical jet riding underneath it. The PNA is good to allow s/w interaction with subtropical jet.

If we start to get better 50/50 L placement as shown in the second pic then you need to watch for something substantial. Also notice the EPO open up more in the second pic which would be good for cold air transport in January.

Let's see if this has legs.

[HectorO]

So this area sucks during Nino, sucks during Nina, can we get Abuelo or Abuela?

[rb924119]

I really don’t see the reason for all the negativity in the long range. Things are proceeding exactly as they should be, and look pretty fantastic to me. Once we get through our current storm I’ll have more to say.

[tomsriversnowstorm]

That is why I love this board. Positive people like you. I am also in 33 and rain and yes there are smart people but they are very negative.

I really don’t see the reason for all the negativity in the long range. Things are proceeding exactly as they should be, and look pretty fantastic to me. Once we get through our current storm I’ll have more to say.

[rb924119]

That is why I love this board. Positive people like you. I am also in 33 and rain and yes there are smart people but they are very negative.

I really don’t see the reason for all the negativity in the long range. Things are proceeding exactly as they should be, and look pretty fantastic to me. Once we get through our current storm I’ll have more to say.

This is probably banter, but you’re preaching to the choir about this lol long story short, I have “a history” with that forum, so I know full well what you’re saying haha this board is definitely much less antagonistic and hostile lol

[phil155]

There has been a sense of optimism that the long range will turn around after Christmas. While that still may be the case, I am definitely coming into this expressing some skepticism. I'm a little concerned about what the Stratosphere is doing, and what is happening in the northern Pacific. Feels like we can't escape the PAC jet, and the deep blue (cold) anomalies are persistent over the EPO domain.

In theory, we can see a trough develop over the eastern side of the country later this month. But if it's going to be cut off from the cross-polar flow / northern jet, that typically mitigates large storm threats and would keep us in a "thread the needle" type of pattern as we only have marginal cold to work with. Need MJO cooperation and for Canada to be the SOURCE of our cold air again. A big fat ridge over Canada is not good.

I agree with Frank and this pattern has been in place for a while, I was more hopeful for this winter a few weeks back but now I think I would revise my low snowfall predictions lower. Until this pattern changes we are out of luck

Phil if CPK gets no measurable snowfall in December your 16.5" prediction looks really good IMO. I'll wait for the month to play out to crunch the numbers though...

We are running out of time and opportunities for snow in December at CPK

[sroc4]

I really don’t see the reason for all the negativity in the long range. Things are proceeding exactly as they should be, and look pretty fantastic to me. Once we get through our current storm I’ll have more to say.

I dont blame anyone for the negativity given the past few winters. PTWSD (post traumatic winter stress disorder) is real. That said the reality of where we stand is exactly where we thought we would be right now. At least I did. Looking back on some of the discussions back on Dec 1st, 3rd, 4th, 9th etc. the link to the warmer phases of the MJO is playing out as we hoped they wouldn't, but recognized likely would. We had a set up between the 18th-20th that for the most part we all knew would be very difficult to produce esp on the coast, but was close enough to pay attention to. And while I know its not over yet for some of the interior folks, the idea that it wouldn't work out for most of us on this board was predicted long ago.

For me I will start to get worried depending on the 24th-31st time frame ends up vastly different that what I expect. To define what I mean is that in that time frame I fully expect a much larger population of this board to see accumulating snow on the ground. 2"?? 12"?? That I dont know yet.

But on the map below:
blue lines = 66% chance to see accumulating snow
Purple Line = 33%
Yellow Lines = 10%

[sroc4]

That is why I love this board. Positive people like you. I am also in 33 and rain and yes there are smart people but they are very negative.

I really don’t see the reason for all the negativity in the long range. Things are proceeding exactly as they should be, and look pretty fantastic to me. Once we get through our current storm I’ll have more to say.

This is probably banter, but you’re preaching to the choir about this lol long story short, I have “a history” with that forum, so I know full well what you’re saying haha this board is definitely much less antagonistic and hostile lol

For the record Rays "history" over at 33 & Rain is good enough for a 6 part Netflix special. lol

[tomsriversnowstorm]

Sounds like a great new show.

That is why I love this board. Positive people like you. I am also in 33 and rain and yes there are smart people but they are very negative.

I really don’t see the reason for all the negativity in the long range. Things are proceeding exactly as they should be, and look pretty fantastic to me. Once we get through our current storm I’ll have more to say.

This is probably banter, but you’re preaching to the choir about this lol long story short, I have “a history” with that forum, so I know full well what you’re saying haha this board is definitely much less antagonistic and hostile lol

For the record Rays "history" over at 33 & Rain is good enough for a 6 part Netflix special.  lol

[Frank_Wx]

I really don’t see the reason for all the negativity in the long range. Things are proceeding exactly as they should be, and look pretty fantastic to me. Once we get through our current storm I’ll have more to say.

I dont blame anyone for the negativity given the past few winters.  PTWSD (post traumatic winter stress disorder) is real.  That said the reality of where we stand is exactly where we thought we would be right now.  At least I did.  Looking back on some of the discussions back on Dec 1st, 3rd, 4th, 9th etc. the link to the warmer phases of the MJO is playing out as we hoped they wouldn't, but recognized likely would.  We had a set up between the 18th-20th that for the most part we all knew would be very difficult to produce esp on the coast, but was close enough to pay attention to.  And while I know its not over yet for some of the interior folks, the idea that it wouldn't work out for most of us on this board was predicted long ago.  

For me I will start to get worried depending on the 24th-31st time frame ends up vastly different that what I expect.  To define what I mean is that in that time frame I fully expect a much larger population of this board to see accumulating snow on the ground.  2"?? 12"??  That I dont know yet.  

But on the map below:
blue lines = 66% chance to see accumulating snow
Purple Line = 33%
Yellow Lines = 10%

I agree with this. Negativity here has been held to a minimum, however, the period after Christmas has been targeted as a window of opportunity. My prior post was meant to taper expectations just a little bit. I’m starting to think that period may be a little too early but not by much. Maybe more of a December 30th-January 1st start. Which, let’s be honest, to go through a full month of meteorological winter without seeing a flake (most of us) is not ideal.

[jmanley32]

There has been a sense of optimism that the long range will turn around after Christmas. While that still may be the case, I am definitely coming into this expressing some skepticism. I'm a little concerned about what the Stratosphere is doing, and what is happening in the northern Pacific. Feels like we can't escape the PAC jet, and the deep blue (cold) anomalies are persistent over the EPO domain.

In theory, we can see a trough develop over the eastern side of the country later this month. But if it's going to be cut off from the cross-polar flow / northern jet, that typically mitigates large storm threats and would keep us in a "thread the needle" type of pattern as we only have marginal cold to work with. Need MJO cooperation and for Canada to be the SOURCE of our cold air again. A big fat ridge over Canada is not good.

I agree with Frank and this pattern has been in place for a while, I was more hopeful for this winter a few weeks back but now I think I would revise my low snowfall predictions lower. Until this pattern changes we are out of luck

Phil if CPK gets no measurable snowfall in December your 16.5" prediction looks really good IMO. I'll wait for the month to play out to crunch the numbers though...

mine was lowe i think i said 15.

[dkodgis]

So our temps go up a bit early next week, then cool from midweek on and in the week after to maybe early Jan, temps go up again. No snow in Dec. Jan may be cold with snow. ̷H̷o̷p̷e̷ Snow springs eternal from the human breast.

[Frank_Wx]

Well well, the european ensembles make things interesting beginning around the New Year +\- 3 days. The american ensembles are not quite there yet. Essentially, the euro retrogrades the canadian ridge as far west as the northeast pacific. This turns your EPO from positive to negative, and now frees up canada for the polar jet to travel south into the conus. Combined with the active STJ, this is the most ideal pattern for us under el nino conditions. I won’t get excited until I see this modeling reflected under 200 hours and/or other long range guidance moves in that direction.

[Frank_Wx]

The MJO forecast suggests we will be entering predominately phase 1 later this month. Above is the upper level pattern combination for el nino and phase 1. This would definitely work, but I would have concerns about the cold air source again. However the psuedo blocking in the Atlantic combined with the active stj could definitely bring about snowfall. Just not sure how much northern stream interaction we would see as this shows verbatim.

[toople]

What effect it has when MJO goes to Phase 2?

[sroc4]

The MJO forecast suggests we will be entering predominately phase 1 later this month. Above is the upper level pattern combination for el nino and phase 1. This would definitely work, but I would have concerns about the cold air source again. However the psuedo blocking in the Atlantic combined with the active stj could definitely bring about snowfall. Just not sure how much northern stream interaction we would see as this shows verbatim.

Verbatim that look has the dreaded strong Pacific jet

[dkodgis]

I could be wrong but based on my limited understanding, phase 2 means more of a trend toward rainfall suppression. You can get way better answers from others

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