Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[sroc4]

The MJO forecast suggests we will be entering predominately phase 1 later this month. Above is the upper level pattern combination for el nino and phase 1. This would definitely work, but I would have concerns about the cold air source again. However the psuedo blocking in the Atlantic combined with the active stj could definitely bring about snowfall. Just not sure how much northern stream interaction we would see as this shows verbatim.

Verbatim that look has the dreaded strong Pacific jet

[dkodgis]

I could be wrong but based on my limited understanding, phase 2 means more of a trend toward rainfall suppression. You can get way better answers from others

[rb924119]

There has been a sense of optimism that the long range will turn around after Christmas. While that still may be the case, I am definitely coming into this expressing some skepticism. I'm a little concerned about what the Stratosphere is doing, and what is happening in the northern Pacific. Feels like we can't escape the PAC jet, and the deep blue (cold) anomalies are persistent over the EPO domain.

In theory, we can see a trough develop over the eastern side of the country later this month. But if it's going to be cut off from the cross-polar flow / northern jet, that typically mitigates large storm threats and would keep us in a "thread the needle" type of pattern as we only have marginal cold to work with. Need MJO cooperation and for Canada to be the SOURCE of our cold air again. A big fat ridge over Canada is not good.

No disrespect here Frank, but what do you have against ridging in Canada? As long as it’s to our north and northwest we can absolutely work with it. If you look at some of our area’s biggest snow storms, you have ridging near Hudson Bay. Even if Canada is +10°F above average, if you can discharge that air properly, that’s still -5°F to -10°F further south into the U.S. When you have a ridge over Hudson Bay, that means you have surface high pressure sprawling across eastern Canada, which we know is primo for cold air delivery into storms. Additionally, by default, it means you have a storm track that results in either initial cutter into southern Great Lakes/Ohio valley with secondary coastal development, or, even an outright coastal storm track. For example, take a look at the first half of this month, first image is H5 anomalies, second is 2m air temperature anomalies (in °C):




You look at the first one, and think wow, that pattern is torched. But is it? The torch is in Canada, sure, but the eastern and northeastern U.S.? Yes, it’s been mild, but relative to the pattern we have been cooler than Canada because the mild Canadian air has been getting displaced southward where the absolute averages are warmer. And, this has been in a sub-prime pattern where the ridging initiates in the Atlantic domain, so the source region is even warmer:



But what happens when that ridge initiation starts occurring over the Canadian mainland?

Ridge initiation:



Surface pressure response:



3-day lagged temperature response:



Yeah, Canada is torched, but with the direct southward transport of that air, we are below-average. +15° to +20°F where the absolute average temperature is 15°F translates to an actual air temperature that’s 30°F to 35°F here. We can definitely work with that.

As my final point, here’s a composite of H5 anomalies for New York City’s four biggest snow storms on record (out of the top six, January 1947 and March 1888 were prior to the available dataset used in this analysis):



Yes, there’s a PNA ridge shifted slightly east, and some west-based Atlantic domain help, I’ll give you that, but where is the heart of the ridge anomalies? Draped across southern and  central Canada/Hudson Bay.

Now, here’s the the forecast H5 anomalies for the middle of the 3-day transition I referenced earlier in this post:



Pretty darn close, eh? On top of that, we have strong support from the tropics for this change, and tomorrow’s storm is part of the catalyst to help shift the ridge initiation westward from the Atlantic domain to mainland Canada. Once that happens, it’s game on. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: You give me ridging across central Canada and Hudson Bay, and I’ll take my chances on every day that ends in “y”. And beyond this, the pattern only improves as the Stratosphere gets involved too. So everybody better buckle up, because we’re gonna be in for a wild ride, in my opinion.

I hope this helps illustrate my point that things are not nearly as bad as they seem, and in spite of being 1.5°F to 3.5°F above average so far, that’s going to turn around quickly. And that’s on top of the trackable, and in some cases, over-achieving events that we’ve had thus far, and will have again during the next week, before the above discussion even applies. So we need to just be patient, folks, and trust the process. It’s happening, but it doesn’t happen instantly. The pieces involved in setting all of this up have been evolving for MONTHS.

[rb924119]

The MJO forecast suggests we will be entering predominately phase 1 later this month. Above is the upper level pattern combination for el nino and phase 1. This would definitely work, but I would have concerns about the cold air source again. However the psuedo blocking in the Atlantic combined with the active stj could definitely bring about snowfall. Just not sure how much northern stream interaction we would see as this shows verbatim.

This response should evolve into a more classical La Nada, average MJO Phase 1 signal, because atmospherically we aren’t in an El Niño.

[rb924119]

The MJO forecast suggests we will be entering predominately phase 1 later this month. Above is the upper level pattern combination for el nino and phase 1. This would definitely work, but I would have concerns about the cold air source again. However the psuedo blocking in the Atlantic combined with the active stj could definitely bring about snowfall. Just not sure how much northern stream interaction we would see as this shows verbatim.

Verbatim that look has the dreaded strong Pacific jet

Love ya, buddy, but lol

[Frank_Wx]

There has been a sense of optimism that the long range will turn around after Christmas. While that still may be the case, I am definitely coming into this expressing some skepticism. I'm a little concerned about what the Stratosphere is doing, and what is happening in the northern Pacific. Feels like we can't escape the PAC jet, and the deep blue (cold) anomalies are persistent over the EPO domain.

In theory, we can see a trough develop over the eastern side of the country later this month. But if it's going to be cut off from the cross-polar flow / northern jet, that typically mitigates large storm threats and would keep us in a "thread the needle" type of pattern as we only have marginal cold to work with. Need MJO cooperation and for Canada to be the SOURCE of our cold air again. A big fat ridge over Canada is not good.

No disrespect here Frank, but what do you have against ridging in Canada? As long as it’s to our north and northwest we can absolutely work with it. If you look at some of our area’s biggest snow storms, you have ridging near Hudson Bay. Even if Canada is +10°F above average, if you can discharge that air properly, that’s still -5°F to -10°F further south into the U.S. When you have a ridge over Hudson Bay, that means you have surface high pressure sprawling across eastern Canada, which we know is primo for cold air delivery into storms. Additionally, by default, it means you have a storm track that results in either initial cutter into southern Great Lakes/Ohio valley with secondary coastal development, or, even an outright coastal storm track. For example, take a look at the first half of this month, first image is H5 anomalies, second is 2m air temperature anomalies (in °C):




You look at the first one, and think wow, that pattern is torched. But is it? The torch is in Canada, sure, but the eastern and northeastern U.S.? Yes, it’s been mild, but relative to the pattern we have been cooler than Canada because the mild Canadian air has been getting displaced southward where the absolute averages are warmer. And, this has been in a sub-prime pattern where the ridging initiates in the Atlantic domain, so the source region is even warmer:



But what happens when that ridge initiation starts occurring over the Canadian mainland?

Ridge initiation:



Surface pressure response:



3-day lagged temperature response:



Yeah, Canada is torched, but with the direct southward transport of that air, we are below-average. +15° to +20°F where the absolute average temperature is 15°F translates to an actual air temperature that’s 30°F to 35°F here. We can definitely work with that.

As my final point, here’s a composite of H5 anomalies for New York City’s four biggest snow storms on record (out of the top six, January 1947 and March 1888 were prior to the available dataset used in this analysis):



Yes, there’s a PNA ridge shifted slightly east, and some west-based Atlantic domain help, I’ll give you that, but where is the heart of the ridge anomalies? Draped across southern and  central Canada/Hudson Bay.

Now, here’s the the forecast H5 anomalies for the middle of the 3-day transition I referenced earlier in this post:



Pretty darn close, eh? On top of that, we have strong support from the tropics for this change, and tomorrow’s storm is part of the catalyst to help shift the ridge initiation westward from the Atlantic domain to mainland Canada. Once that happens, it’s game on. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: You give me ridging across central Canada and Hudson Bay, and I’ll take my chances on every day that ends in “y”. And beyond this, the pattern only improves as the Stratosphere gets involved too. So everybody better buckle up, because we’re gonna be in for a wild ride, in my opinion.

I hope this helps illustrate my point that things are not nearly as bad as they seem, and in spite of being 1.5°F to 3.5°F above average so far, that’s going to turn around quickly. And that’s on top of the trackable, and in some cases, over-achieving events that we’ve had thus far, and will have again during the next week, before the above discussion even applies. So we need to just be patient, folks, and trust the process. It’s happening, but it doesn’t happen instantly. The pieces involved in setting all of this up have been evolving for MONTHS.

The composite of NYC four largest storms is pretty different from where long range guidance is today. That deep trough amplification over the east is a result of that full latitude PNA ridge and east based -EPO. We don’t see that on any modeling right now, let alone a -NAO. Also, I may not have made my point clear, although I thought I clarified it in my post this morning, that a ridge over Canada can work if it behaves in a way that promotes ridging toward the Pacific. But a trough over Alaska and a ridge over central Canada doesn’t do it for me. And my larger point is what you said at the end…that we have to be patient and not be too quick to pinpoint timeframes that don’t really have model support right now (such as the 25th-30th). While I would love for the pattern to turn by then, I think it’s too quick. Especially if your end game is to get the Strats cooperation. That may not happen until mid January.

[rb924119]

There has been a sense of optimism that the long range will turn around after Christmas. While that still may be the case, I am definitely coming into this expressing some skepticism. I'm a little concerned about what the Stratosphere is doing, and what is happening in the northern Pacific. Feels like we can't escape the PAC jet, and the deep blue (cold) anomalies are persistent over the EPO domain.

In theory, we can see a trough develop over the eastern side of the country later this month. But if it's going to be cut off from the cross-polar flow / northern jet, that typically mitigates large storm threats and would keep us in a "thread the needle" type of pattern as we only have marginal cold to work with. Need MJO cooperation and for Canada to be the SOURCE of our cold air again. A big fat ridge over Canada is not good.

No disrespect here Frank, but what do you have against ridging in Canada? As long as it’s to our north and northwest we can absolutely work with it. If you look at some of our area’s biggest snow storms, you have ridging near Hudson Bay. Even if Canada is +10°F above average, if you can discharge that air properly, that’s still -5°F to -10°F further south into the U.S. When you have a ridge over Hudson Bay, that means you have surface high pressure sprawling across eastern Canada, which we know is primo for cold air delivery into storms. Additionally, by default, it means you have a storm track that results in either initial cutter into southern Great Lakes/Ohio valley with secondary coastal development, or, even an outright coastal storm track. For example, take a look at the first half of this month, first image is H5 anomalies, second is 2m air temperature anomalies (in °C):




You look at the first one, and think wow, that pattern is torched. But is it? The torch is in Canada, sure, but the eastern and northeastern U.S.? Yes, it’s been mild, but relative to the pattern we have been cooler than Canada because the mild Canadian air has been getting displaced southward where the absolute averages are warmer. And, this has been in a sub-prime pattern where the ridging initiates in the Atlantic domain, so the source region is even warmer:



But what happens when that ridge initiation starts occurring over the Canadian mainland?

Ridge initiation:



Surface pressure response:



3-day lagged temperature response:



Yeah, Canada is torched, but with the direct southward transport of that air, we are below-average. +15° to +20°F where the absolute average temperature is 15°F translates to an actual air temperature that’s 30°F to 35°F here. We can definitely work with that.

As my final point, here’s a composite of H5 anomalies for New York City’s four biggest snow storms on record (out of the top six, January 1947 and March 1888 were prior to the available dataset used in this analysis):



Yes, there’s a PNA ridge shifted slightly east, and some west-based Atlantic domain help, I’ll give you that, but where is the heart of the ridge anomalies? Draped across southern and  central Canada/Hudson Bay.

Now, here’s the the forecast H5 anomalies for the middle of the 3-day transition I referenced earlier in this post:



Pretty darn close, eh? On top of that, we have strong support from the tropics for this change, and tomorrow’s storm is part of the catalyst to help shift the ridge initiation westward from the Atlantic domain to mainland Canada. Once that happens, it’s game on. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: You give me ridging across central Canada and Hudson Bay, and I’ll take my chances on every day that ends in “y”. And beyond this, the pattern only improves as the Stratosphere gets involved too. So everybody better buckle up, because we’re gonna be in for a wild ride, in my opinion.

I hope this helps illustrate my point that things are not nearly as bad as they seem, and in spite of being 1.5°F to 3.5°F above average so far, that’s going to turn around quickly. And that’s on top of the trackable, and in some cases, over-achieving events that we’ve had thus far, and will have again during the next week, before the above discussion even applies. So we need to just be patient, folks, and trust the process. It’s happening, but it doesn’t happen instantly. The pieces involved in setting all of this up have been evolving for MONTHS.

The composite of NYC four largest storms is pretty different from where long range guidance is today. That deep trough amplification over the east is a result of that full latitude PNA ridge and east based -EPO. We don’t see that on any modeling right now, let alone a -NAO. Also, I may not have made my point clear, although I thought I clarified it in my post this morning, that a ridge over Canada can work if it behaves in a way that promotes ridging toward the Pacific. But a trough over Alaska and a ridge over central Canada doesn’t do it for me. And my larger point is what you said at the end…that we have to be patient and not be too quick to pinpoint timeframes that don’t really have model support right now (such as the 25th-30th). While I would love for the pattern to turn by then, I think it’s too quick. Especially if your end game is to get the Strats cooperation. That may not happen until mid January.

Where is there a -EPO signature on the composite? There’s no ridging anywhere to be found near Alaska. Additionally, on the model graphics, similarly to this storm, it’s not a true -NAO signature that would show up statistically, but it’s a pseudo -NAO that would work the same way, just as it has with tomorrow’s storm. The PNA and central Canadian ridging is there in both the composite and the modeling.

I’m not necessarily arguing for that specific event, Frank, although personally, I do think we have another legitimate chance. But because the pattern is establishing and not already fully established, it may end up having a preceding airmass that’s too warm. However, once that pattern is established, there’s a lot to be excited about, I think, even for that particular event. But, maybe we should just agree to disagree on this aspect haha

As for the Strat, I don’t think we wait that long. With how quickly the tropospheric ridging is retrograding, it should couple pretty quickly. The standard lag is 3-6 weeks depending on how quickly the Stratosphere and Troposphere can couple, and the warming started early this month. So right around New Years sounds right to me, but that’s more semantics than a fundamental disagreement on that aspect.

[heehaw453]

By hook or crook CPK best got on the snowfall board in December...

IMO this is very relevant to the long term prospects.
https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t1145p200-december-2023-observations-and-discussion#183488

[Frank_Wx]

There has been a sense of optimism that the long range will turn around after Christmas. While that still may be the case, I am definitely coming into this expressing some skepticism. I'm a little concerned about what the Stratosphere is doing, and what is happening in the northern Pacific. Feels like we can't escape the PAC jet, and the deep blue (cold) anomalies are persistent over the EPO domain.

In theory, we can see a trough develop over the eastern side of the country later this month. But if it's going to be cut off from the cross-polar flow / northern jet, that typically mitigates large storm threats and would keep us in a "thread the needle" type of pattern as we only have marginal cold to work with. Need MJO cooperation and for Canada to be the SOURCE of our cold air again. A big fat ridge over Canada is not good.

No disrespect here Frank, but what do you have against ridging in Canada? As long as it’s to our north and northwest we can absolutely work with it. If you look at some of our area’s biggest snow storms, you have ridging near Hudson Bay. Even if Canada is +10°F above average, if you can discharge that air properly, that’s still -5°F to -10°F further south into the U.S. When you have a ridge over Hudson Bay, that means you have surface high pressure sprawling across eastern Canada, which we know is primo for cold air delivery into storms. Additionally, by default, it means you have a storm track that results in either initial cutter into southern Great Lakes/Ohio valley with secondary coastal development, or, even an outright coastal storm track. For example, take a look at the first half of this month, first image is H5 anomalies, second is 2m air temperature anomalies (in °C):




You look at the first one, and think wow, that pattern is torched. But is it? The torch is in Canada, sure, but the eastern and northeastern U.S.? Yes, it’s been mild, but relative to the pattern we have been cooler than Canada because the mild Canadian air has been getting displaced southward where the absolute averages are warmer. And, this has been in a sub-prime pattern where the ridging initiates in the Atlantic domain, so the source region is even warmer:



But what happens when that ridge initiation starts occurring over the Canadian mainland?

Ridge initiation:



Surface pressure response:



3-day lagged temperature response:



Yeah, Canada is torched, but with the direct southward transport of that air, we are below-average. +15° to +20°F where the absolute average temperature is 15°F translates to an actual air temperature that’s 30°F to 35°F here. We can definitely work with that.

As my final point, here’s a composite of H5 anomalies for New York City’s four biggest snow storms on record (out of the top six, January 1947 and March 1888 were prior to the available dataset used in this analysis):



Yes, there’s a PNA ridge shifted slightly east, and some west-based Atlantic domain help, I’ll give you that, but where is the heart of the ridge anomalies? Draped across southern and  central Canada/Hudson Bay.

Now, here’s the the forecast H5 anomalies for the middle of the 3-day transition I referenced earlier in this post:



Pretty darn close, eh? On top of that, we have strong support from the tropics for this change, and tomorrow’s storm is part of the catalyst to help shift the ridge initiation westward from the Atlantic domain to mainland Canada. Once that happens, it’s game on. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: You give me ridging across central Canada and Hudson Bay, and I’ll take my chances on every day that ends in “y”. And beyond this, the pattern only improves as the Stratosphere gets involved too. So everybody better buckle up, because we’re gonna be in for a wild ride, in my opinion.

I hope this helps illustrate my point that things are not nearly as bad as they seem, and in spite of being 1.5°F to 3.5°F above average so far, that’s going to turn around quickly. And that’s on top of the trackable, and in some cases, over-achieving events that we’ve had thus far, and will have again during the next week, before the above discussion even applies. So we need to just be patient, folks, and trust the process. It’s happening, but it doesn’t happen instantly. The pieces involved in setting all of this up have been evolving for MONTHS.

The composite of NYC four largest storms is pretty different from where long range guidance is today. That deep trough amplification over the east is a result of that full latitude PNA ridge and east based -EPO. We don’t see that on any modeling right now, let alone a -NAO. Also, I may not have made my point clear, although I thought I clarified it in my post this morning, that a ridge over Canada can work if it behaves in a way that promotes ridging toward the Pacific. But a trough over Alaska and a ridge over central Canada doesn’t do it for me. And my larger point is what you said at the end…that we have to be patient and not be too quick to pinpoint timeframes that don’t really have model support right now (such as the 25th-30th). While I would love for the pattern to turn by then, I think it’s too quick. Especially if your end game is to get the Strats cooperation. That may not happen until mid January.

Where is there a -EPO signature on the composite? There’s no ridging anywhere to be found near Alaska. Additionally, on the model graphics, similarly to this storm, it’s not a true -NAO signature that would show up statistically, but it’s a pseudo -NAO that would work the same way, just as it has with tomorrow’s storm. The PNA and central Canadian ridging is there in both the composite and the modeling.

I’m not necessarily arguing for that specific event, Frank, although personally, I do think we have another legitimate chance. But because the pattern is establishing and not already fully established, it may end up having a preceding airmass that’s too warm. However, once that pattern is established, there’s a lot to be excited about, I think, even for that particular event. But, maybe we should just agree to disagree on this aspect haha

As for the Strat, I don’t think we wait that long. With how quickly the tropospheric ridging is retrograding, it should couple pretty quickly. The standard lag is 3-6 weeks depending on how quickly the Stratosphere and Troposphere can couple, and the warming started early this month. So right around New Years sounds right to me, but that’s more semantics than a fundamental disagreement on that aspect.

I’m being a little liberal with my definition of east-based EPO, because I’m looking at the region east of Alaska and not just the state of Alaska. I’ll respectfully disagree as it pertains to the PNA. Here’s your day 9-13 H5 mean. Does not look like your composite IMO.

[rb924119]

Oh, ok, that makes more sense then lol as for the the PNA, you’re right, the mean during that period is weaker than the analogs. But it’s because you’re looking at a mean. This may sound nit picky and nothing more than semantics, but it’s an important distinction, in my opinion. At day 9, there’s a trough getting ready to eject out from the Southwest, by day 11 (the hour 264 EPS image I used in my discussion) that trough has ejected and is located over the central U.S. notice the associated height rises in the PNA region. Then, by day 13, the trough that was once in the Southwest is now along the Eastern Seaboard, has been replaced by the positive PNA signal. So yeah, when you look at the means during that five-day period, they won’t show the signal, but when you start with a negative and then replace it with a positive by the end of the period, it only makes sense that the temporal mean is neutral. But even from that relative weakness in the troughing, you can infer that there is ridging that gets in there.

Day 9:



Day 11:




Day 13:

[rb924119]

Also notice the ridging extending over the top in the Atlantic with pseudo -NAO signature. There won’t be arctic air, but with that ridging in Canada like that, the air will be cold enough with a southern storm track. I can’t personally ask for anything more than the chances that this pattern will provide us.

[frank 638]

Also notice the ridging extending over the top in the Atlantic with pseudo -NAO signature. There won’t be arctic air, but with that ridging in Canada like that, the air will be cold enough with a southern storm track. I can’t personally ask for anything more than the chances that this pattern will provide us.

sometimes if we have Arctic air very cold air it’s hard to get snowstorms. Do you think after New Year’s? We will have a pattern change

[heehaw453]

The beginnings of big game hunting look. You start establishing deeper cold air on EC (PNA+/EPO-), creating a steep PNA ridge in the Canadian Rockies for s/w interaction and blocking up the flow in the Atlantic.  I am very interested to see if the models start aligning with better pattern between Christmas and NY Day. Definitely want to see that NAO-.

[phil155]

Also notice the ridging extending over the top in the Atlantic with pseudo -NAO signature. There won’t be arctic air, but with that ridging in Canada like that, the air will be cold enough with a southern storm track. I can’t personally ask for anything more than the chances that this pattern will provide us.

sometimes if we have Arctic air very cold air it’s hard to get snowstorms. Do you think after New Year’s? We will have a pattern change

I think if this pattern is to change as predicted by many people it will be after the new year and probably the first week of January. I know I have been pretty negative on this winter but a large part of that is being burned the last few years. I do think this winter is probably going to deliver more than what we have seen in the past few but it we will need patience. I also think seeing a storm.like we are getting this weekend could possibly (hopefully?) Be a peek at what is to come down the road when we have some cold air in place

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Also notice the ridging extending over the top in the Atlantic with pseudo -NAO signature. There won’t be arctic air, but with that ridging in Canada like that, the air will be cold enough with a southern storm track. I can’t personally ask for anything more than the chances that this pattern will provide us.

sometimes if we have Arctic air very cold air it’s hard to get snowstorms. Do you think after New Year’s? We will have a pattern change

I think if this pattern is to change as predicted by many people it will be after the new year and probably the first week of January. I know I have been pretty negative on this winter but a large part of that is being burned the last few years. I do think this winter is probably going to deliver more than what we have seen in the past few but it we will need patience. I also think seeing a storm.like we are getting this weekend could possibly (hopefully?) Be a peek at what is to come down the road when we have some cold air in place

And I like to believe that my hair will start growing back in two to three weeks. Alas the chances of that happening are about as high as this elusive pattern change we continually hope for.

[dkodgis]

Othelia showed up at my slider.

I opened it and she said this: “People who wonder if the glass is half empty or full miss the point. The glass is refillable”.

[aiannone]

FWIW from Steve D

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Othelia showed up at my slider.

I opened it and she said this: “People who wonder if the glass is half empty or full miss the point. The glass is refillable”.

True, but if the glass breaks it can't be refilled.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

FWIW from Steve D

5 years ago I never heard of the MJO and now five years later it drives me to the brink of insanity.

I'll believe it when I see it, but no one ever seems to really know what phase the damn thing will be in two weeks from now, other than one of the 8 phases and amplitude not favorable for snow in our area.

[GreyBeard]

Ain't you got your MOJO WORKIN' CP ?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Ain't you got your MOJO WORKIN' CP ?

that was great.

You got me thinking Greybeard, when Jim Morrison of the Doors sang LA woman, was he trying to tell us something when he kept repeating the line Mr. Mojo Risin, Mr Mojo risin?

Did he and Muddy Waters add the extra O, MJO vs. MOJO for a reason?

[GreyBeard]

Now you got me thinking so I found the answer for ya courtesy of Google.

Mojo Risin'," which is an anagram of his name "Jim Morrison". Doors drummer John Densmore later explained the story of the line: After we recorded the song, he wrote "Mr. Mojo Rising" on a board and said, "Look at this." He moves the letters around and it was an anagram for his name.

https://www.thesound.co.nz/home/music/2020/06/how-the-doors-discovered-the-true-meaning-of-mr-mojo-risin.html

[docstox12]

FWIW from Steve D

5 years ago I never heard of the MJO and now five years later it drives me to the brink of insanity.

I'll believe it when I see it, but no one ever seems to really know what phase the damn thing will be in two weeks from now, other than one of the 8 phases and amplitude not favorable for snow in our area.

My good man, I am sure you are familiar with the old timey expression "occupation is salvation".You are a statistician, how about when winter starts on the 21st keeping a record of the week to week MJO reading .This will tell me exactly during this winter we get a favorable reading for our area.Then we can get a grip on just how meaningful this teleconnection is as it translates to sensible weather in our area.Of course, if the mere mention of M J and O is enough to wreak havoc on your sanity, then disregard this advice,LOL.

[sroc4]

FWIW from Steve D

5 years ago I never heard of the MJO and now five years later it drives me to the brink of insanity.

I'll believe it when I see it, but no one ever seems to really know what phase the damn thing will be in two weeks from now, other than one of the 8 phases and amplitude not favorable for snow in our area.

My good man, I am sure you are familiar with the old timey expression "occupation is salvation".You are a statistician, how about when winter  starts on the 21st keeping a record of the week to week MJO reading .This will tell me exactly during this winter we get a favorable reading for our area.Then we can get a grip on just how meaningful this teleconnection is as it translates to sensible weather in our area.Of course, if the mere mention of M J and O is enough to wreak havoc on your sanity, then disregard this advice,LOL.

I was under the impression that M J O was an acronym for MaJor Othelia referencing the time she spend in the armed services as an assassin. I could be wrong.

[docstox12]

FWIW from Steve D

5 years ago I never heard of the MJO and now five years later it drives me to the brink of insanity.

I'll believe it when I see it, but no one ever seems to really know what phase the damn thing will be in two weeks from now, other than one of the 8 phases and amplitude not favorable for snow in our area.

My good man, I am sure you are familiar with the old timey expression "occupation is salvation".You are a statistician, how about when winter  starts on the 21st keeping a record of the week to week MJO reading .This will tell me exactly during this winter we get a favorable reading for our area.Then we can get a grip on just how meaningful this teleconnection is as it translates to sensible weather in our area.Of course, if the mere mention of M J and O is enough to wreak havoc on your sanity, then disregard this advice,LOL.

I was under the impression that M J O was an acronym for MaJor Othelia referencing the time she spend in the armed services as an assassin. I could be wrong.

[sroc4]

The MJO forecast suggests we will be entering predominately phase 1 later this month. Above is the upper level pattern combination for el nino and phase 1. This would definitely work, but I would have concerns about the cold air source again. However the psuedo blocking in the Atlantic combined with the active stj could definitely bring about snowfall. Just not sure how much northern stream interaction we would see as this shows verbatim.

Verbatim that look has the dreaded strong Pacific jet

Love ya, buddy, but lol

You can angry emoji me all you want my good sir but this does not change what I said.  Obv that image is a composite of multiple years combined.  Its a mean of multiple looks.
And while it does not show a strong ridge in the SE CONUS, it does show a strong Pac jet.  This is not a classic -EPO ridge over a south of Aleutian's trough; rather, it shows a +EPO with a strong Pac Jet as a part of that mean look that at times reaches the west coast, which dampens a PNA ridge at times.  Combine that with an active STJ that unless the timing of some of the other pieces is right, you get over amplified southern stream systems that can raise heights out ahead; esp if the Pac jet ext reaches the west coast. And while it may be workable, a ridge over the Hudson Bay is less than ideal. With a ridge in that general region and a +EPO there is not much of a cold push, unless things line up. And this image also has the "pseudo" -NAO look. This is not a traditional -NAO. And while this too can be workable, it is less than ideal unless you have cooperation with timing and positioning of the other factors back west.



Now to be fair, this is truly a workable scenario. This isnt a foregone conclusion in either direction. It has snowed all the way to the coast in way worse set ups, but the idea that the Pac jet isn't a part of the means in this composite?? I dont think you can say that.

[sroc4]

For the record I do think there is a period of legit cold enough and snow beginning after Xmas through new years and likely for a week to 10days into Jan. Then...we may get a Jan thaw. After that do we reload into the cold and snow for the end of Jan and Feb? Well I want to believe that based on the Strat info coming in, but its too far off.

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