Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[MattyICE]

Seems like some trends pushing NW today. Many that have seen this play out before know that that can happen only to reverse closer in back to the SE. I’d expect that here but who really knows. I can’t help but remember December 2020 trending more and more NW til Binghamton ended up the jackpot. There still was plowable snow closer to the coast but nothing like what it could have been. RB was ALL over that call and was one of the few that warned that would happen. I’d be interested to see some comparison of that setup compared to this one.

[hyde345]

Someone has to throw some cold water into everyone's face right now, with a major dose of reality.

I've seen the words historic, prolific, tremendous, Maps are underplaying the potential, and on and on. And with five long days to go before the storm is scheduled to begin.

It's already reminding me of anytime the stock market gets to the peak of a bubble right before it bursts, and not in a good way.

This will be rain for most in the forum and most likely a sloppy 2 to 4 inches for those of us in the north, which will then be washed away by the 40 to 45° temperatures three days later with rain.

Someone had to do it.

It's still days away but the way I see it areas that are along and north of 84 like us will see 6-10. NYC metro and Long island will have difficulty seeing significant accums, maybe 1-3. It's just a marginal airmass and 00z suite was warmer. There could also be flooding concerns with the mid week system and snow melt.

according to previous posts from rb he has stated likely cold will be there for i-95 and coast unless u mran central coastal NJ then they may only see a few inches but i think nyc does nearly as well as pts n and w. Of course you guys always have the better chance but in this setup doesnt appear to be as big a worry. 00z gfs was very nice. But no model is consistent other thsn a storm will be coming. The other stuff we are still a ways from.

It still remains a precarious setup with marginal temps for NYC metro and coastal sections. 12z suite continues those concerns. Most of precip falling at night will help with accumulations but the best chances of 6+ are N and W. Still too early in the game for details.

[essexcountypete]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TTMlWwO8tc
Check this out what do y’all think

Pretty good. Not too technical. I subscribed.

Here's their most recent update, but not much new from the video you linked...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMepuVitxuE

[amugs]

Absolutely mint look:
Negative EPO
Positive PNA
Negative AO and NAO Western Block
50/50 domain region low pressures
Sub Tropical Jet running
= MJO Phase 3 to a T
GEPS bringing it home mid month

[rb924119]

Seems like some trends pushing NW today. Many that have seen this play out before know that that can happen only to reverse closer in back to the SE. I’d expect that here but who really knows. I can’t help but remember December 2020 trending more and more NW til Binghamton ended up the jackpot. There still was plowable snow closer to the coast but nothing like what it could have been. RB was ALL over that call and was one of the few that warned that would happen. I’d be interested to see some comparison of that setup compared to this one.

HMMMMMMMMMMM

[tomsriversnowstorm]

Since I won’t be getting impacts form this weekend in ocean county, will we have more opportunities later in the month? Thanks for your hard work guys.

[rb924119]

Seems like some trends pushing NW today. Many that have seen this play out before know that that can happen only to reverse closer in back to the SE. I’d expect that here but who really knows. I can’t help but remember December 2020 trending more and more NW til Binghamton ended up the jackpot. There still was plowable snow closer to the coast but nothing like what it could have been. RB was ALL over that call and was one of the few that warned that would happen. I’d be interested to see some comparison of that setup compared to this one.

So, the first image is a map of the H5 anomalies for our storm of interest as it is commencing in our area:




The second image is a map of the H5 anomalies for the storm mentioned above, December 17th, 2020:



As you can see, the setups are EXTREMELY similar. HOWEVER, there are two subtle differences between them. First, note the amplitude of the ridging in southeastern Canada to the north of our storm of interest - it’s more robust in our storm of interest compared to 2020. Secondly, the 50/50 low in our current storm is further west, more in the classic position (and should continue to maintain its current look or trend better), whereas in 2020 it was slipping east in advance of the storm.

Something else interesting to note is look at the wave spacing in 2020. There’s one trough on the West Coast, one on the East Coast. But, in the current projections, we have three major troughs in the U.S. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it’s not something you really see. It’s possible that the models are having issues resolving where the real trough should be with all of the energy that’s getting bottlenecked across the CONUS, and we end up seeing more lead trough and less middle trough in future runs.

Either way, I still don’t buy the degree of de-amplification of the energy associated with our storm of interest at this point.

[rb924119]

We have much more hemispheric and tropical support for a stronger trough in the eastern CONUS than the storm in 2020 did (I think). I’ll look into this shortly, though, and confirm.

[rb924119]

We have much more hemispheric and tropical support for a stronger trough in the eastern CONUS than the storm in 2020 did (I think). I’ll look into this shortly, though, and confirm.

Confirmed.

[amugs]

TPV in Hudson Bay regions = cold n storminess

[Irish]

Silent night...

[Artechmetals]

Silent night...

Guess it’s not a good sign ‍�

[rb924119]

Haha don’t worry fellas, 00z suite is just starting now lol watch the January Observations thread for updates on the possible storm this weekend

[Irish]

Silent night...

Guess it’s not a good sign ‍

That was my thought as well but there's too much time between now and when the storm comes in for anything to be definitive. Other boards are also humming with conversation and updated forecasts.

[tomsriversnowstorm]

I am concerned that no one is talking about the long range. Does that mean the pattern for January is not looking good now? Sorry I just get worried when a thread goes silent.

[rb924119]

Not at all, we are just focusing on what’s immediately in front of us right now.

[Dunnzoo]

I am concerned that no one is talking about the long range. Does that mean the pattern for January is not looking good now? Sorry I just get worried when a thread goes silent.

You don't want to see what's coming next week, it's ugly. Stick with this weekend's event for now.

[crippo84]

Absolutely mint look:
Negative EPO
Positive PNA
Negative AO and NAO Western Block
50/50 domain region low pressures
Sub Tropical Jet running
= MJO Phase 3 to a T
GEPS bringing it home mid month

One thing I'd love to learn/understand from you guys looking at these 500mb maps (or perhaps even higher up in the atmosphere at 200mb - I think I've seen Sroc reference a more "zoomed out" look the other day when discussing with Heehaw how this southern stream storm may or may not interact with the northern stream)...

How do you decipher where the polar (northern stream - n/s ?) and sub-tropical (southern stream - s/s ?) jet streams are orientated and reside looking at these maps? Am I even correct in associating the polar jet with the 'northern stream' and sub-tropical jet with 'southern stream'?

No rush here - we have bigger fish to catch with our potential upcoming storm.  But a "for dummies" answer would be highly appreciated.  My head started spinning trying to google this. Snow storms have been a fascination of mine since my childhood days growing up in Va Beach where it was a very rare treat. Learning how they work and come together in the atmosphere little by little over the last decade on this forum has been a very fulfilling hobby.

[dkodgis]

I too have a question. Here I am on Orange county with show tickets for Sun. Trying my best to see if roads will be passable and so on into the city Sun. Then out. If I know what you rxperienced folks think, that is some guidance

[rb924119]

I am concerned that no one is talking about the long range. Does that mean the pattern for January is not looking good now? Sorry I just get worried when a thread goes silent.

You don't want to see what's coming next week, it's ugly. Stick with this weekend's event for now.

Holddddddddddddddd lol

Don’t be so sure of this - our current storm started as a cutter. Models CANNOT handle these blocks, and always try running storms head-on into them. I think we see the same kind of evolution with the next storm as we are with this one. But we have to get this weekend’s event out of the way first. Think I’m nuts? Check the latest GEM - buries the northern half of our area with a much more suppressed evolution. Warm air doesn’t come in until the precip shuts off.

[frank 638]

Do you guys think the next storm for Tuesday into Wednesday? I know it’s gonna be a rain and windstorm, but do you think the storm will go little south of us

[rb924119]

Do you guys think the next storm for Tuesday into Wednesday? I know it’s gonna be a rain and windstorm, but do you think the storm will go little south of us

See my previous post

[amugs]

The 13th storm doesn't cut - the GFS is showing it already go from Wisconsin to Western NY and we are in phase 2 into 3 by then, N EPO should press the storm. Give it time.

AND lookuy what we have here next wednesday time frame........ It 's coming to fruition slowly by OH CANADA has my idea!!!!!! More ticks to come as the N EPO, AO/NAO couplet force this in phase 3 to belly under and drive cold air down the Apps.

[amugs]

Even the GFS is showing it as well

[rb924119]

Yes sir, mugsy!!!

[amugs]

And we'll have an MLK special this year, buckle up peeps could be a 2 storm per week scenerio!!!

[1190ftalt]

Amugs, Heehaw, Rb, and couple others I am forgetting , please keep calling the possible snowstorms the way you see it, it is awesome to follow your  guys thinking, in the end RIGHT OR WRONG you are taking a stance and LEADING THE WAY ! Most weather reporters just sit on the fence and wait till the day before then make the safe NON CONTROVERSIAL Call. I totally respect you guys taking a stance and being right or wrong and learning from it, WAY TO LEAD THE WAY!
  Again Many Thanks!

[Sponsored content]