Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[sroc4]

The MJO forecast suggests we will be entering predominately phase 1 later this month. Above is the upper level pattern combination for el nino and phase 1. This would definitely work, but I would have concerns about the cold air source again. However the psuedo blocking in the Atlantic combined with the active stj could definitely bring about snowfall. Just not sure how much northern stream interaction we would see as this shows verbatim.

Verbatim that look has the dreaded strong Pacific jet

Love ya, buddy, but lol

You can angry emoji me all you want my good sir but this does not change what I said.  Obv that image is a composite of multiple years combined.  Its a mean of multiple looks.
And while it does not show a strong ridge in the SE CONUS, it does show a strong Pac jet.  This is not a classic -EPO ridge over a south of Aleutian's trough; rather, it shows a +EPO with a strong Pac Jet as a part of that mean look that at times reaches the west coast, which dampens a PNA ridge at times.  Combine that with an active STJ that unless the timing of some of the other pieces is right, you get over amplified southern stream systems that can raise heights out ahead; esp if the Pac jet ext reaches the west coast. And while it may be workable, a ridge over the Hudson Bay is less than ideal. With a ridge in that general region and a +EPO there is not much of a cold push, unless things line up. And this image also has the "pseudo" -NAO look. This is not a traditional -NAO. And while this too can be workable, it is less than ideal unless you have cooperation with timing and positioning of the other factors back west.



Now to be fair, this is truly a workable scenario. This isnt a foregone conclusion in either direction. It has snowed all the way to the coast in way worse set ups, but the idea that the Pac jet isn't a part of the means in this composite?? I dont think you can say that.

[sroc4]

For the record I do think there is a period of legit cold enough and snow beginning after Xmas through new years and likely for a week to 10days into Jan. Then...we may get a Jan thaw. After that do we reload into the cold and snow for the end of Jan and Feb? Well I want to believe that based on the Strat info coming in, but its too far off.

[HectorO]

For the record I do think there is a period of legit cold enough and snow beginning after Xmas through new years and likely for a week to 10days into Jan.  Then...we may get a Jan thaw.  After that do we reload into the cold and snow for the end of Jan and Feb?  Well I want to believe that based on the Strat info coming in, but its too far off.  

A thaw to our already thawed, green, flooded surface.

[dkodgis]

Othelia wants two

[Koroptim]

Part of me doesn’t understand if the mid to long term guidance is so unreliable and constantly changing,  what value do they really have?  We know the odds of mid Jan being far different than what is shown now (either better or worse) is pretty high, why do we let each model run change the mood of the board?

[sroc4]

For the record I do think there is a period of legit cold enough and snow beginning after Xmas through new years and likely for a week to 10days into Jan.  Then...we may get a Jan thaw.  After that do we reload into the cold and snow for the end of Jan and Feb?  Well I want to believe that based on the Strat info coming in, but its too far off.  

A thaw to our already thawed, green, flooded surface.

[heehaw453]

This split flow starts the window of possibility for snow and that's D10 stuff. This to start is minor stuff where waves ride underneath the ridge type of deal. You get just enough cold press to squeeze out some snow. It's not until you get the Atlantic to pin some 50/50 stuff that something bigger is possible IMO and that is probably several days later if at all. Now do we continue to push this back of is this actually something that starts sooner? In a few days and continued consensus we'll have a good idea. For now there is growing ensemble support for more favorability but that can change  

[Frank_Wx]

The pattern progression appearing in the long range remains on track as of 00z runs last night. Verbatim it is pretty exciting to see it play out like this. I uploaded 3 images representing snapshots of time at 500mb from the 00z EPS. Let's quickly go through each one.

December 22nd
*In the words of my nonna, "fa schifo" which translates to "that is gross." I attempted to outline the pacific jet extension which has already been discussed here a couple of pages back. The country is flooded with mild air and there's nothing exciting to really talk about. However, pay attention to the areas I circled in green. One being the central canadian ridge. The other being the alaskan trough, also known as a +EPO.

December 26th
*Nonna is still not happy with this look but, if you play this on a loop, there's some optimism beginning to spread. The central canadian ridge I initially outlined is now "back building" in the west-northwest side of Canada. Also, the deepest blue (negative) anomalies of the alaskan trough began shifting more north-northwest. Both of these features are beginning their retrograde, which tells me the models are adjusting to an El Nino base state atmospheric upper level pattern. Some of this is being triggered by the MJO too, but I think El Nino is your driving factor here.

January 1st
*This is now a full-fledge El Nino looks. The trough over the south-southeast CONUS represents your "wet and cool" that you typically see on El Nino maps posted by the NWS. The upper midwest / PAC NW is under drier and milder conditions thanks to your +PNA/-EPO couplet. It's VERY nice to see a ridge over Alaska. That ridge I showed in my previous image has retrograded back far enough NW, that is allows the polar jet stream to sink into our part of the country. This combination of polar air and sub-tropical activity is exactly what we need to get colder and snowier conditions. The EPS has model support from the GEFS. And what I'm seeing play out in the Pacific with regards to El Nino, MJO, etc. makes me feel pretty good about this.

So, all this to say that we need to give this 3-4 more days and hope we continue to see consistency in the modeling. If we begin to see them waver, or keep pushing the timeline back, I would get a little worried that the only way to turn this pattern around is through the Stratosphere. Which may still happen regardless.

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[frank 638]

What you guys think of AccuWeather ? In the long range they show colder and a couple snow chances for the month of January.

[sroc4]

What are you guys think of AccuWeather ? In the long range they show colder and a couple snow chances for the month of January.

They see what we see.

[rb924119]

The MJO forecast suggests we will be entering predominately phase 1 later this month. Above is the upper level pattern combination for el nino and phase 1. This would definitely work, but I would have concerns about the cold air source again. However the psuedo blocking in the Atlantic combined with the active stj could definitely bring about snowfall. Just not sure how much northern stream interaction we would see as this shows verbatim.

Verbatim that look has the dreaded strong Pacific jet

Love ya, buddy, but lol

You can angry emoji me all you want my good sir but this does not change what I said.  Obv that image is a composite of multiple years combined.  Its a mean of multiple looks.
And while it does not show a strong ridge in the SE CONUS, it does show a strong Pac jet.  This is not a classic -EPO ridge over a south of Aleutian's trough; rather, it shows a +EPO with a strong Pac Jet as a part of that mean look that at times reaches the west coast, which dampens a PNA ridge at times.  Combine that with an active STJ that unless the timing of some of the other pieces is right, you get over amplified southern stream systems that can raise heights out ahead; esp if the Pac jet ext reaches the west coast.  And while it may be workable, a ridge over the Hudson Bay is less than ideal.  With a ridge in that general region and a +EPO there is not much of a cold push, unless things line up.  And this image also has the "pseudo" -NAO look.  This is not a traditional -NAO.  And while this too can be workable, it is less than ideal unless you have cooperation with timing and positioning of the other factors back west.  



Now to be fair, this is truly a workable scenario.  This isnt a foregone conclusion in either direction.  It has snowed all the way to the coast in way worse set ups, but the idea that the Pac jet isn't a part of the means in this composite??  I dont think you can say that.  

I never said that the Pacific jet doesn’t come into play, my man. But when you’re dealing with blocking, what happens? The jet cuts underneath the blocking ridge in the higher latitudes. In EVERY case. Take a -NAO, for example. Why do we like it so much? Because it forces the jet/storm track further south across the central Atlantic. In a +NAO, it fights to lift northward over the eastern U.S. unless there are other factors in play. When there’s blocking across Canada, what happens? Instead of allowing cutters, you end up with storms that make it to about our latitude and then are forced to transfer to the coast because they can’t fight through the block. When you have your -EPO, where’s the jet? It’s further south across the central Pacific. And, in most cases when there’s a +PNA, you have one of two things occur; either energy fights through the PNA ridge and amplifies downstream, or, it gets suppressed far enough so that it ends up in the sub-tropical jet. Look at the maps of a lot of your “great” winters and individual storms, and A LOT of them have a similar look.

I’ll end with this, because honestly, there’s no sense continuing to flog this dead horse. As long as you keep seeing that Hudson Bay block show up and be the dominant ridge, the models will respond accordingly with a colder overall look and more southerly storm track. It may take them time to “see” it, that’s why we forecast if I’m wrong, then I’ll admit it, but right now, there’s a whole lot to like with this type of pattern and a jet (pacific and sub-tropical) cutting underneath. It’s a classic blocking scenario. That’s it, I’m done lol I’ve made my stance clear, it’s time to let it ride. We’ll agree to disagree……for now haha

[heehaw453]

Got to give some props to Rb and Sroc. The MJO seems to be coming into phase 8. I think it was sroc who called out 12/20 ish for better things to come.

[Frank_Wx]

https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1736848763673542913?s=46&t=khIuo-joMGhpKcLk0g9Y4g

[sroc4]

Got to give some props to Rb and Sroc. The MJO seems to be coming into phase 8. I think it was sroc who called out 12/20 ish for better things to come.

One thing I will say though is that those temp composites is that they dont always correlate with El Nino years.  This is what a phase 8 500mb mean pattern looks like in December when ENSO 3.4 is above 0.5  It actually alot like what the mean pattern is shaping up like over the next 3-4 days which jives with the MJO forecast above with ridging across NA.





Then by Xmas eve and beyond into phase 1. Here is the Mean 550mb look during El Nino events during Dec phase 1, and what the mean pattern loosk like after Xmas eve. Looks very similar for sure.

[sroc4]

https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1736848763673542913?s=46&t=khIuo-joMGhpKcLk0g9Y4g

So hes punting the time frame between now and the second half of Jan. Sweet.

[heehaw453]

https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1736848763673542913?s=46&t=khIuo-joMGhpKcLk0g9Y4g

So hes punting the time frame between now and the second half of Jan.  Sweet.  

I guess he's thinking cold air needs to be more deeply penetrated? Not sure, but cold enough is a matter of a strong H oozing down from CA and the AO going more neutral/negative with a +PNA can certainly help facilitate that before mid January.

[Frank_Wx]

https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1736848763673542913?s=46&t=khIuo-joMGhpKcLk0g9Y4g

So hes punting the time frame between now and the second half of Jan.  Sweet.  

The airmass isn’t ready before then, IMO. Maybe we squeeze out a minor event near the 30th

[tomsriversnowstorm]

There are other experts such as RB and Sroc who say the opposite. In my opinion both have more knowledge and are less arrogant. I am excited about what are RB was saying.

https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1736848763673542913?s=46&t=khIuo-joMGhpKcLk0g9Y4g

So hes punting the time frame between now and the second half of Jan.  Sweet.  

[sroc4]

There are other experts such as RB and Sroc who say the opposite. In my opinion both have more knowledge and are less arrogant. I am excited about what are RB was saying.

https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1736848763673542913?s=46&t=khIuo-joMGhpKcLk0g9Y4g

So hes punting the time frame between now and the second half of Jan.  Sweet.  

Me and Rb are not quite on the same page with everything upcoming although we do agree on several ideas. And I am anything but an expert. I’m just a winter weather weenie like everyone else.

[amugs]

I'm not buying what JH says in that tweet. Like him but he has a warm and GW bias. 

Let's hope this all comes to fruitin....MJO, Telescope, Maps!! 

[amugs]

2 keys to cold that I firmly believe will open the windows for minor events end of Dec 1st week of Jan

[tomsriversnowstorm]

Well I appreciate your insights and sometimes don’t think you guys give yourself enough credit. Thanks for your hard work.

There are other experts such as RB and Sroc who say the opposite. In my opinion both have more knowledge and are less arrogant. I am excited about what are RB was saying.

https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1736848763673542913?s=46&t=khIuo-joMGhpKcLk0g9Y4g

So hes punting the time frame between now and the second half of Jan.  Sweet.  

Me and Rb are not quite on the same page with everything upcoming although we do agree on several ideas. And I am anything but an expert. I’m just a winter weather weenie like everyone else.

[heehaw453]

I'd be surprised if at least the interior doesn't get some snowfall before we close out December say from 27-31. This kind of split flow look has cold air oozing down and weak s/w pushing off the coast. It won't take much for a few inches in this setup. Coastal plain boundary layer issues but even there a strong banana H could do it with just a weak s/w.

[sroc4]

I'd be surprised if at least the interior doesn't get some snowfall before we close out December say from 27-31. This kind of split flow look has cold air oozing down and weak s/w pushing off the coast. It won't take much for a few inches in this setup. Coastal plain boundary layer issues but even there a strong banana H could do it with just a weak s/w.

I honestly couldn't agree more. Both modeling and observation has me excited actually. Longer write up coming today or tomorrow hopefully.

[crippo84]

I'd be surprised if at least the interior doesn't get some snowfall before we close out December say from 27-31. This kind of split flow look has cold air oozing down and weak s/w pushing off the coast. It won't take much for a few inches in this setup. Coastal plain boundary layer issues but even there a strong banana H could do it with just a weak s/w.

I honestly couldn't agree more.  Both modeling and observation has me excited actually. Longer write up coming today or tomorrow hopefully.

I sense a "We Track " incoming. Can't wait.

[SENJsnowman]

I'd be surprised if at least the interior doesn't get some snowfall before we close out December say from 27-31. This kind of split flow look has cold air oozing down and weak s/w pushing off the coast. It won't take much for a few inches in this setup. Coastal plain boundary layer issues but even there a strong banana H could do it with just a weak s/w.

I honestly couldn't agree more.  Both modeling and observation has me excited actually. Longer write up coming today or tomorrow hopefully.

I sense a "We Track " incoming. Can't wait.

Could not agree more, Crippo. And I hope you are right! It looks tracking season has begun, and for me…

“It’s the most wonderful time of the year!!”

[Frank_Wx]

I'd be surprised if at least the interior doesn't get some snowfall before we close out December say from 27-31. This kind of split flow look has cold air oozing down and weak s/w pushing off the coast. It won't take much for a few inches in this setup. Coastal plain boundary layer issues but even there a strong banana H could do it with just a weak s/w.

Agreed about interior. Coast is going to struggle, but, never know.

Taking a look at things again this afternoon, I feel good about the post I made yesterday with regards to JAN. Once we get to the 1st, we should have the right alignment at 500mb to move us in the right direction as it pertains to colder and stormier than normal weather. The 12z GEFS continue to push the idea of ridging over the EPO domain and a very active sub tropical jet streak along the south-southeastern U.S. Our area is squeezed in between both of these features. Call it the "battle zone" if you will. This zone is going to experience frequent storm activity with temperatures near the freezing mark. The way to stay on the cold side of these storms is all dependent on the storm track, which is dependent on other things like Atlantic blocking, 50/50 low, etc. But no sense in going into details on that yet. First, we need a storm!!!

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