Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[SENJsnowman]

I'd be surprised if at least the interior doesn't get some snowfall before we close out December say from 27-31. This kind of split flow look has cold air oozing down and weak s/w pushing off the coast. It won't take much for a few inches in this setup. Coastal plain boundary layer issues but even there a strong banana H could do it with just a weak s/w.

I honestly couldn't agree more.  Both modeling and observation has me excited actually. Longer write up coming today or tomorrow hopefully.

I sense a "We Track " incoming. Can't wait.

Could not agree more, Crippo. And I hope you are right! It looks tracking season has begun, and for me…

“It’s the most wonderful time of the year!!”

[Frank_Wx]

I'd be surprised if at least the interior doesn't get some snowfall before we close out December say from 27-31. This kind of split flow look has cold air oozing down and weak s/w pushing off the coast. It won't take much for a few inches in this setup. Coastal plain boundary layer issues but even there a strong banana H could do it with just a weak s/w.

Agreed about interior. Coast is going to struggle, but, never know.

Taking a look at things again this afternoon, I feel good about the post I made yesterday with regards to JAN. Once we get to the 1st, we should have the right alignment at 500mb to move us in the right direction as it pertains to colder and stormier than normal weather. The 12z GEFS continue to push the idea of ridging over the EPO domain and a very active sub tropical jet streak along the south-southeastern U.S. Our area is squeezed in between both of these features. Call it the "battle zone" if you will. This zone is going to experience frequent storm activity with temperatures near the freezing mark. The way to stay on the cold side of these storms is all dependent on the storm track, which is dependent on other things like Atlantic blocking, 50/50 low, etc. But no sense in going into details on that yet. First, we need a storm!!!

[sroc4]

So why the optimistic post earlier?  Well first off I think most regulars on here know what I wish for during the winter months.  And Im pretty sure I do the best that I can to leave my bias out of my analysis.  Obv sometimes its impossible, but I think thus far through the early stages I have done a decent job shelving my cold and snow bias to simply state what I see even if it meant warmth and no snow.  If I go back to the write up I had on Dec 3rd regarding the month of Dec you see I wasn't quite ready to get excited about snow for most of us on this board.  

...For me my overall argument isnt necessarily where the month of Dec falls temp anomaly wise, but rather the forecasted MJO has merit in both current observations as well as model forecasts to support linkages to the warmer phases such that storm tracks into and around our region will struggle to tap into the cold air sources and be on the warmer side of solns until after the third week of Dec at the earliest....there are other areas linking to the northern latitudes which might mitigate what the true phase 3-6 MJO might look like on the 500mb pattern over the NE, but there is enough there to suggest that until that linkage tempers there likely will be an influence on just how much cold air will be available to any storm headed our way.

In addition to discussing the trends on those, often times confusing, MJO graphs that we often post: (Here are the current euro and GFS MJO forecasts)





I also stated in the discussion from Dec 3rd that there were current observations showing a direct link with the MJO in phases 3, 4, & 5 by showing this water vapor image from the 3rd as support for my thoughts on the first 3 weeks of the month.  




Now if I go back even further in a response to Matty Ice regarding the trends on the MJO maps into phases 3-6 back on Dec 1st I wrote:

....And then what does the MJO wave do?  Does it collapse, or go into phase 7?  Because honestly phase 7 in December during El Nino years is not necessarily a cold phase. Below is the 500mb composite for all MJO phase 7 El Nino years, followed by December El Nino years with MJO phase 7 with amplitude > 1.Low amplitude Phase 7 in Dec isn't an all out torch, but it isn't cold, but with amplitude it is pretty warm......So if it in fact makes it into 7 our chances for cold and white extend out even further.

So the next image is the MJO verification over the past 40days and you can clearly see that through Dec 17th it actially made it all the way through 4,5,6,&7.  So unfort what used to look like in the LR to be the shift towards legit chances between 22nd-25th is now pushed back a little further into the last few days of the month.  



So ok by now you're probably thinking so why all the optimism.  All you've done so far is pretty much pump your own ego, and show that what starts out as promising ends up being pushed back again and again.  Regarding pumping the ego that's definitely not my intention at all, although admittedly its nice to see some of your ideas pan out.  My true intention is simply to state that back at the beginning of the month I didn't see much promising and stated my reasoning why through models and observations.  Now, however; I actually do see some promising observations that makes me think that the pattern change being shown in the modeling this time is real.  

Now before I go any further I realize that last statement, should you choose to jump on board with me here, (and also Ray..to be honest he will need all the credit if it pans out as he saw it first), is set up for yet another huge disappointment if things shit the bed.  So proceed with extreme caution and tempered expectations if you dare.  (CP I suggest you stay put over on OTI, and I will come find you at your reserved seat before the first flakes fly I promise).  

So again refer back up to towards the top of the write up and notice the current MJO forecast is taking the impulse through weak 8 over the next several dyas; then into 1 by around the 23rd/24th & then eventually 2 with at least some amplitude.

If you refer to the images I posted in the post I had yesterday at 4:14pm you will see that technically for the month of December during El Nino winters phase 8 is not a cold and snowy 500mb pattern.  That shifts as we head into Jan, but like that post from yesterday stated the next 3-5days are actually lining up pretty well where the modeling looks not that dissimilar to the overall 500mb historical Composites over North America.  As we head towards the 27-29th and beyond the modeling then shifts to a very clear phase 1 & 2 look when compared to Dec and Jan El Nino historical composites.  Again refer to yesterdays post for this images.

So ok the "models" show this may happen in the Md and LT, but what makes me think this is going to happen is what's happening on current satellite observations across the tropical Pac.  It looks like we are already linking the colder phases of the MJO.  I will put the water vapor image from Dec 3rd again followed by the current water vapor Sat image.  






HERE IS THE LOOP

https://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/jma/fd/wvblue.html

You can clearly see that atmospheric link earlier in the month with MJO phases 3, 4, and 5 is no longer there.  The atmospheric link has shifted further west, ie: into the western Indian ocean and off the E African coast.  Now on the image above of the wv full disk with the MJO phases labeled, if you shift your attention towards the right side of the current WV imagery you'll notice a link with phase 8 and 1 in the eastern Trop Pac.  This area is also directly linked to the atmosphere, only this area is currently only linked to the Sub Trop Jet(STJ).  See image and link for the full loop below:

https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes17/wvh/goes17_fulldisk_60.html



As we head deeper into the season if this area of the trop Pac, phase 8 &/or 1, remains active do not be surprised to see a link with both the STJ and the Pac jet as indicated by the yellow arrows to the black circle S of the Aleutian Islands.  And within that black circle see a large trough.  

So as you can see the current observations suggest that there is a reshuffling of the atmosphere underway.  With it just shifting from the warm phases to the colder ones way out just off the African coast line, the effects likely wont be seen down stream in our neck of the woods for at least 5-7days which jives with the models at the moment.  So IMHO I think there is real reason to remain optimistic for many of us to see accumulating snow just before as well as after the new year.  Now this is of course ONLY if this MJO impulse does not die out to quickly.  I think this impulse into phase 1 & 2 is critical to re shuffle the big picture out of its current nonsense state for us winter weenies.  

Then what happens as we head into the first week of Jan to that MJO pulse?  Will it cont into 3(Which mind you IS a cold phase during El Nino years in Jan; not Dec though), or does it collapse back into the null phase and re-emerge.  Either way both scenarios are great news IMO for access to cold and snow chances.  And IMHO those chances last from about Dec 27th through Jan 10th give or take 3-5 days before a reload.  


DID YOU ORDER THE COLD AIR????




Hey Crippo.............

WE TRACK!!!!!!!

[Frank_Wx]

Good post, Scott. Only thing I would caution is to consider the ENSO state when using those MJO maps. Obviously we're in an El Nino year, but the positive AAM state and pacific jet extension are features you more commonly see in a La Nina base state. Unfortunately, I think those are your driving forces to our sensible weather through the end of this month, but once the AAM turns we should see El Nino regain control. But we're both driving at the same theme overall - the pattern is going to change. We're already seeing it happen, as you illustrated, and eventually the models will catch on. The Ensembles already have. We may just differ on timing a bit.

[Frank_Wx]

The 18z GEFS look even more robust in early JAN. Not only do they maintain the -EPO signal, but the WCAN ridge amplifies further north into the western Arctic and connects with a separate ridge over eastern Russia. This actually helps pull in your eastern CONUS trough and possibly brings the main axis on land instead of off the coast.

That would be quite something.

[amugs]

I'd be surprised if at least the interior doesn't get some snowfall before we close out December say from 27-31. This kind of split flow look has cold air oozing down and weak s/w pushing off the coast. It won't take much for a few inches in this setup. Coastal plain boundary layer issues but even there a strong banana H could do it with just a weak s/w.

Agreed about interior. Coast is going to struggle, but, never know.

Taking a look at things again this afternoon, I feel good about the post I made yesterday with regards to JAN. Once we get to the 1st, we should have the right alignment at 500mb to move us in the right direction as it pertains to colder and stormier than normal weather. The 12z GEFS continue to push the idea of ridging over the EPO domain and a very active sub tropical jet streak along the south-southeastern U.S. Our area is squeezed in between both of these features. Call it the "battle zone" if you will. This zone is going to experience frequent storm activity with temperatures near the freezing mark. The way to stay on the cold side of these storms is all dependent on the storm track, which is dependent on other things like Atlantic blocking, 50/50 low, etc. But no sense in going into details on that yet. First, we need a storm!!!

ABSOLUTELY!! The possibility is there. The storm 1st and then let's see of the Bananas can do us some good. Cold air is available just have to get it down the leeward side of the Apps.

Nice + PNA and and WC trough is off the coast. Let's see how this plays out in the next 3 days drom now

[Frank_Wx]

00z GFS went bonkers tonight. Split flow, very active STJ (MJO enhanced likely), and arctic cold. It’s going to be a wild ride if everything stays as is.

[Irish]

00z GFS went bonkers tonight. Split flow, very active STJ (MJO enhanced likely), and arctic cold. It’s going to be a wild ride if everything stays as is.

When is the timeframe that you're looking at?

[sroc4]

Good post, Scott. Only thing I would caution is to consider the ENSO state when using those MJO maps. Obviously we're in an El Nino year, but the positive AAM state and pacific jet extension are features you more commonly see in a La Nina base state. Unfortunately, I think those are your driving forces to our sensible weather through the end of this month, but once the AAM turns we should see El Nino regain control. But we're both driving at the same theme overall - the pattern is going to change. We're already seeing it happen, as you illustrated, and eventually the models will catch on. The Ensembles already have. We may just differ on timing a bit.

I completely hear what your saying Frank regarding the base state. I believe I summed that up above as “Nonsense pattern”. Lol. For me personally I find it hard to call it a La Niña base state when the ONI is at 1.8. And prob will be a smidge higher when the new one comes out after the new year.  I know it’s similar to this but the reality is is that it’s more likely the diffuse warmth seen throughout the Pacific and Indian oceans with a wedge of cool just north of our ENSO region in the Pac in the NH. Somehow it wouldn’t surprise me if somehow the stark contrast between the ENSO region of the Trop Pac to the more diffuse much colder SSTA in the southern hemisphere also playing some role in the big picture. Maybe in the walker and hadley cell configuration.

Anyway your def right about this base state being less than ideal regardless of what we want to call it. That jet extension has been a killer for years now. I guess my contention is that because of the link to the pacific and to a lesser degree northern jet already visible in the sat wv imagery that the reshuffle is already underway and that current modeling between 27-31st will struggle mightily for at least another 3 days or so. I guess the best way to summarize my thoughts would be to echo what Ray wrote regarding his reflection of this last one. While I don’t know if the sensible weather is going to end up working out white for everyone, I do think what you see in the 500mb pattern now is nowhere near the final soln. I think we will see trends towards a soln that will once again suck us all back in because of just how close things are; only the his time I firmly believe the outcome for at the very least our NW folks will be better than what we have seen so far. My objective and subjective points made yesterday as support as well as unintentional bias leaking into this mornings statement. For now

We Track!

[heehaw453]

This isn't complicated at the h5 and will probably produce snow as shown. We do non complicated well in these parts and more complicated not so well, rather abysmal actually. Just sayin' It's all about the split flow and the compressed height fields until you get up into CNE/NNE/Upstate NY where that doesn't matter as much.

https://mediastorage453.blob.core.windows.net/public/ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1703030400-1703764800-1704326400-40.gif

[amugs]

Around New Years we can see some white maybe to the coast but more so inland. If the stays as Frank said.
From Rayno

[Frank_Wx]

JMA has been great on the set up for winter. When I saw it starting to show this back in August gave me good backup to analogs. Look what it had for December, what is going on, and then what it has for Jan pic.twitter.com/NvmHr3PC1C

— The American Storm (@BigJoeBastardi) December 20, 2023

[Irish]

JMA has been great on the set up for winter. When I saw it starting to show this back in August gave me good backup to analogs. Look what it had for December, what is going on, and then what it has for Jan pic.twitter.com/NvmHr3PC1C

— The American Storm (@BigJoeBastardi) December 20, 2023

Looking cold to me!

[Frank_Wx]

I just accidentally deleted a whole post talking about the current state of the Stratosphere

I mentioned the Strat last week and - looking at it again - have concerns about what it is forecasted to do as we move into JAN. Although I am full expecting the first 10-15 days of JAN to be colder than normal, with hopefully ample chances for snow, I am not so enthused about what the rest of the month may do. I don't want to get too ahead of myself without showing you all of the data and visuals to back it up. I just made a stupid mistake closing out the window. Oh well...when I find time again I will get back into it.

[sroc4]

I just accidentally deleted a whole post talking about the current state of the Stratosphere

I mentioned the Strat last week and - looking at it again - have concerns about what it is forecasted to do as we move into JAN. Although I am full expecting the first 10-15 days of JAN to be colder than normal, with hopefully ample chances for snow, I am not so enthused about what the rest of the month may do. I don't want to get too ahead of myself without showing you all of the data and visuals to back it up. I just made a stupid mistake closing out the window. Oh well...when I find time again I will get back into it.

Thats the worst!! Ive been there.

[jmanley32]

So I read some of this briefly dont have a lot of time but it looks like we arent really too sure whats going to transpire around new years but will be inland thing and the second half of Jan could be no good (any chances in between for coast or are we go have wait till Feb which honestly when I start to really lose hope, but I don't throw in the towel until Mid March now with the way things have gone. I honestly we need to start saying JFM not DJF because Dec just seems to be a longer fall now, could that change maybe but I fear are seasons are changing and not inn a good way.

[sroc4]

So I read some of this briefly dont have a lot of time but it looks like we arent really too sure whats going to transpire around new years but will be inland thing and the second half of Jan could be no good (any chances in between for coast or are we go have wait till Feb which honestly when I start to really lose hope, but I don't throw in the towel until Mid March now with the way things have gone. I honestly we need to start saying JFM not DJF because Dec just seems to be a longer fall now, could that change maybe but I fear are seasons are changing and not inn a good way.

No chance for the coast Jon. Prob not until March.

[jmanley32]

So I read some of this briefly dont have a lot of time but it looks like we arent really too sure whats going to transpire around new years but will be inland thing and the second half of Jan could be no good (any chances in between for coast or are we go have wait till Feb which honestly when I start to really lose hope, but I don't throw in the towel until Mid March now with the way things have gone. I honestly we need to start saying JFM not DJF because Dec just seems to be a longer fall now, could that change maybe but I fear are seasons are changing and not inn a good way.

No chance for the coast Jon. Prob not until March.

Sarcasm, always fun but seriously, do we have any shot between now and Mid Jan? And I really wasn't joking at all about December becoming more like fall, I think CP even came up with new terms for fall and spring and winter if I recall so I am def not the only one who is frustrated and these pattern changes either transpire not in our favor or don't at all based on history on the board.

[sroc4]

So I read some of this briefly dont have a lot of time but it looks like we arent really too sure whats going to transpire around new years but will be inland thing and the second half of Jan could be no good (any chances in between for coast or are we go have wait till Feb which honestly when I start to really lose hope, but I don't throw in the towel until Mid March now with the way things have gone. I honestly we need to start saying JFM not DJF because Dec just seems to be a longer fall now, could that change maybe but I fear are seasons are changing and not inn a good way.

No chance for the coast Jon. Prob not until March.

Sarcasm, always fun but seriously, do we have any shot between now and Mid Jan?

I’m going to make you read my prev post to find my answer. I spent a lot of time writing it.

[jmanley32]

I remember when Winter started aroundThanksgiving and it snowed multiple times amonth with many many snow days and always a snowpack. Was looking at old photos of xmas when I was a kid my parents found and every year there was snow out the windows, one year it was even snowing, and hard. Miss those days. Brought so much more magic to the seasonal holidays. I am not unhappy about the holidays love this time of year, especially this year for certain reasons but the lack of snow and warmer days and even nights is just not as festive.

[jmanley32]

So I read some of this briefly dont have a lot of time but it looks like we arent really too sure whats going to transpire around new years but will be inland thing and the second half of Jan could be no good (any chances in between for coast or are we go have wait till Feb which honestly when I start to really lose hope, but I don't throw in the towel until Mid March now with the way things have gone. I honestly we need to start saying JFM not DJF because Dec just seems to be a longer fall now, could that change maybe but I fear are seasons are changing and not inn a good way.

No chance for the coast Jon. Prob not until March.

Sarcasm, always fun but seriously, do we have any shot between now and Mid Jan?

I’m going to make you read my prev post to find my answer.  I spent a lot of time writing it.

Fair enough.

[jmanley32]

So I read some of this briefly dont have a lot of time but it looks like we arent really too sure whats going to transpire around new years but will be inland thing and the second half of Jan could be no good (any chances in between for coast or are we go have wait till Feb which honestly when I start to really lose hope, but I don't throw in the towel until Mid March now with the way things have gone. I honestly we need to start saying JFM not DJF because Dec just seems to be a longer fall now, could that change maybe but I fear are seasons are changing and not inn a good way.

No chance for the coast Jon. Prob not until March.

Sarcasm, always fun but seriously, do we have any shot between now and Mid Jan?

I’m going to make you read my prev post to find my answer.  I spent a lot of time writing it.

And your efforts are appreciated as always but I am just too tired to be able to understand this technical stuff. The last post looks like your talking about the NW folks but I did not see a time frame, the issue is I used to follow you guys all day long but now I go a day or two, or longer during a boring period without reading (unless we are in a storm) I just can't sit myself down long enough to wrap my head around a few pages of technical discussion (Sorry ADHD sucks).

[amugs]

This would work.  It's moving up in time and ENS are recognizing a wave break over tye NAO region and EPO region. Split flow and a big + PNA and Negative EPO with a Neutral NAO works. Also an enseblance of a 50/50LP would be key.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I remember when Winter started aroundThanksgiving and it snowed multiple times amonth with many many snow days and always a snowpack. Was looking at old photos of xmas when I was a kid my parents found and every year there was snow out the windows, one year it was even snowing, and hard. Miss those days. Brought so much more magic to the seasonal holidays. I am not unhappy about the holidays love this time of year, especially this year for certain reasons but the lack of snow and warmer days and even nights is just not as festive.

It's like you read my mind, and I'll leave it at that.

[Radz]

This is once again painful to watch, not a torch, but temps near 50 on Christmas is definitely grinching the festivities this year… hoping for a 2014-2015 redux when our snowy season started mid-month January, and extended through March… gotta keep some hope alive lol

[phil155]

This is once again painful to watch, not a torch, but temps near 50 on Christmas is definitely grinching the festivities this year… hoping for a 2014-2015 redux when our snowy season started mid-month January, and extended through March… gotta keep some hope alive lol

I am keeping hope alive as people here and elsewhere more knowledgeable than I keep saying January and especially February should be very good. That said I have my sincere doubts as aside from mood flakes we have not seen much of anything and sadly the trend is your friend as they say until it is not and it seems like the cold has no real stay power

[docstox12]

This is once again painful to watch, not a torch, but temps near 50 on Christmas is definitely grinching the festivities this year… hoping for a 2014-2015 redux when our snowy season started mid-month January, and extended through March… gotta keep some hope alive lol

NWS has me for rain and highs in the upper 40's.The bad pattern of almost two months continues.Hope we can get a measurable snow in the books before December ends or we face the dreaded statistic "as December goes, so goes the winter"!

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