Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[amugs]

And we'll have an MLK special this year, buckle up peeps could be a 2 storm per week scenerio!!!

[1190ftalt]

Amugs, Heehaw, Rb, and couple others I am forgetting , please keep calling the possible snowstorms the way you see it, it is awesome to follow your  guys thinking, in the end RIGHT OR WRONG you are taking a stance and LEADING THE WAY ! Most weather reporters just sit on the fence and wait till the day before then make the safe NON CONTROVERSIAL Call. I totally respect you guys taking a stance and being right or wrong and learning from it, WAY TO LEAD THE WAY!
  Again Many Thanks!

[heehaw453]

I am concerned that no one is talking about the long range. Does that mean the pattern for January is not looking good now? Sorry I just get worried when a thread goes silent.

You don't want to see what's coming next week, it's ugly. Stick with this weekend's event for now.

Holddddddddddddddd lol

Don’t be so sure of this - our current storm started as a cutter. Models CANNOT handle these blocks, and always try running storms head-on into them. I think we see the same kind of evolution with the next storm as we are with this one. But we have to get this weekend’s event out of the way first. Think I’m nuts? Check the latest GEM - buries the northern half of our area with a much more suppressed evolution. Warm air doesn’t come in until the precip shuts off.

Not having done any analysis on this. Front end frozen to some rain? Or you thinking something better? The PNA gives me cause to think a cutter sounds right.

[rb924119]

I am concerned that no one is talking about the long range. Does that mean the pattern for January is not looking good now? Sorry I just get worried when a thread goes silent.

You don't want to see what's coming next week, it's ugly. Stick with this weekend's event for now.

Holddddddddddddddd lol

Don’t be so sure of this - our current storm started as a cutter. Models CANNOT handle these blocks, and always try running storms head-on into them. I think we see the same kind of evolution with the next storm as we are with this one. But we have to get this weekend’s event out of the way first. Think I’m nuts? Check the latest GEM - buries the northern half of our area with a much more suppressed evolution. Warm air doesn’t come in until the precip shuts off.

Not having done any analysis on this. Front end frozen to some rain? Or you thinking something better? The PNA gives me cause to think a cutter sounds right.

I think we could end up seeing a similar evolution to what we are expected to see this weekend, where the storm is forced to cut beneath the blocking in the Atlantic domain.

[essexcountypete]

RB, I'm really trying to avoid any over exuberance for sustained winter weather, but I must say your post above just made that much harder

[amugs]

1190 thanks for the words. I believe we turn the worm and IF we get the split or SSW with a stretch it only reinforces and aid our ideas bigly. A split as forecasted would be as the great Plankton on SpongeBob would say........"Tremendous "!!

This is though.

MONSTER GREENLAND BLOCK LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING DOWN POLAR AIR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF JANUARY!
This weekends northeast storm is part of a series of storms that will roll across the country over the next 15 days. The 2nd (more intense) storm will hit the Midwest hard later… pic.twitter.com/AmNOMSElIU

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) January 3, 2024

[amugs]

[amugs]

And 18Z GFS just reinforced cold n stormy pattern

[Frank_Wx]

Taking a look at next week…a big time trough drops into the center of the country and signals for a very strong storm system. The upper level low closes off near New Mexico. Where it tracks from there is critical into determining what this brings to our area.



Here’s the same time stamp to help visualize the upper level pattern better. A few things of note:

1. -NAO
2. -EPO pinched off ridge that turns into a -AO
3. High Pressure in SE Canada

With all this blocking in the higher latitudes, you would expect the primary low that tries to cut through the Great Lakes would develop a secondary low off the coast. The only model that attempts this is the Canadian. Notice where it pops a secondary low. Off the coast of New England.



So what gives? It’s all about where the initial trough and ULL track. The deeper the trough, the more east the ULL is likely to track, which puts it at a better spot (longitude wise) to feel the effect of the high latitude blocking on the Atlantic side. This would pop a secondary low off the coast per CMC. The problem is, even the CMC is very late in developing a secondary low. We would really need the ULL to take a MAJOR step east in future modeling. My fear though is that the energy associated with this ULL is too strong, and there isn’t a PNA ridge or other another mechanism to “boot” it more east. This is a storm we need to stay on top of. If it plays out as modeled…we’re talking temps near 60 degrees and heavy rain. Let’s hope not!

[billg315]

Interesting models show another system weekend after this. We all know how the weather often locks into patterns around here (i.e. it rains every weekend, there's a storm every mid-week). Let's hope we're locking into a "snowstorm potential every weekend" pattern. lol

[Frank_Wx]

What does the pattern call for beyond January 10th? Remember from my blog post that before the 10th, we’re living in this -EPO regime with a decent cold air mass but not one that is impressing anyone to say the least. But at least we have a couple of storms to track (this weekend and the one I just posted about for next week around the 10th). After that, my attention turns to the MJO and Stratosphere again.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=12.79,89.77,271

Here’s an animation of the Stratosphere at the 10 hPa level. It shows a massive High Pressure over northeastern Russia literally pushing the Strat PV off the arctic circle axis. It is quite an impressive warming event that is causing the PV to substantially weaken. This makes the PV even more susceptible to future warming events and hopefully leading to an official Stratospheric Warming Event (a permanent displacement of the PV). That brings me to next weeks Stratospheric forecast:



Around January 15th +/- 3 days, the EURO 10 hPa mean zonal wind forecast is VERY close to showing a SSWE. The mean does not quite show a reversal, but there are a lot of members that do. And some of the height anomaly maps show the PV undergoing a SPLIT. One piece of the PV does in fact sink southwards into North America. If this happens, we will be GAME ON for a major arctic outbreak starting late in late January into early February.

[billg315]

Been a minute since we've had one of those.

[Frank_Wx]

Let’s now turn our attention to the MJO. It’s currently found in phase 3 and is projected to stay there for the next 7 days (+/- 3 days). Beyond that, uncertainty remains whether it proceeds into phase 4 or dissipates into the COD (circle of death). Which is an unusual way of saying the tropical wave dies off. You would think phase 3 is a warm phase of the MJO, but like others have said, it actually is not when your background state of the atmosphere is in El Niño.






The top image is the euro ensembles depiction of the 500mb pattern averaged over days 5 to 9. The bottom image is an analogs map consisting of all the El Niño years with an MJO in phase 3 in January. The two are VERY similar when it comes to the AO and NAO regions. However, the trough is positioned further west than what the analogs map suggest. This is heavily skewed by the January 10th trough I wrote about a couple of posts up. Could this be a sign that the JAN 10th ULL will eventually correct itself east on future model run? Possibly. This is something we definitely need to watch.

[rb924119]

Let’s now turn our attention to the MJO. It’s currently found in phase 3 and is projected to stay there for the next 7 days (+/- 3 days). Beyond that, uncertainty remains whether it proceeds into phase 4 or dissipates into the COD (circle of death). Which is an unusual way of saying the tropical wave dies off. You would think phase 3 is a warm phase of the MJO, but like others have said, it actually is not when your background state of the atmosphere is in El Niño.






The top image is the euro ensembles depiction of the 500mb pattern averaged over days 5 to 9. The bottom image is an analogs map consisting of all the El Niño years with an MJO in phase 3 in January. The two are VERY similar when it comes to the AO and NAO regions. However, the trough is positioned further west than what the analogs map suggest. This is heavily skewed by the January 10th trough I wrote about a couple of posts up. Could this be a sign that the JAN 10th ULL will eventually correct itself east on future model run? Possibly. This is something we definitely need to watch.

GEM took another massive step to showing more white than wet with this system. Tonight's run takes the DN over the Delmarva lol blocks can work miracles

[rb924119]

So did the GFS lol

[Irish]

I am concerned that no one is talking about the long range. Does that mean the pattern for January is not looking good now? Sorry I just get worried when a thread goes silent.

You don't want to see what's coming next week, it's ugly. Stick with this weekend's event for now.

This event for some in central jersey and south may be just as ugly, maybe more so since our temps will only be a few degrees away from getting snow. Instead we'll have a nice chipper rain storm. Next week will just be a balmy spring storm in the upper 40s- lower 50s.

[HectorO]

Hang tight. Pattern change coming mid February...

[amugs]

Hang tight. Pattern change coming mid February...

The transition already and this if true is the making of what could be our best snowstorm since 2021 Februray 1,2.
1. Monster NAO Block over Western Greenland
2. Big EPO Block
3. PV sitting over SE Canada, Hudson Bay
3. N to Slightly Positive PNA
4. Sub Tropical Jet miosture feed

[rb924119]

The trends are our friends, folks. Models continue to buckle to the strength of the blocking, and now have the low cross through State College. Two days ago it was through Michigan. Trust the process.

[amugs]

The trends are our friends, folks. Models continue to buckle to the strength of the blocking, and now have the low cross through State College. Two days ago it was through Michigan. Trust the process.

Cough Cough the triplets of N EPO, AO and NAO going sigma 3 by Tuesday doing some dirty work. Speaking of looky see here



AO TIMMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!



NAO says "AO......I got you brother"



EPO says " hey cuz's dont leave me out of the fun here"

[docstox12]

Mugsy, if the long range crew brings this home and we get mostly snow next week, it would go a long way in helping cure CP with his lackasnowpackitis (symptoms caused by a continual lack of snow pack days the last two years).Bring it home, guys!!

[tomsriversnowstorm]

How were the last model runs is the pattern still looking good?

Mugsy, if the long range crew brings this home and we get mostly snow next week, it would go a long way in helping cure CP with his lackasnowpackitis (symptoms caused by a continual lack of snow pack days the last two years).Bring it home, guys!!

[aiannone]

[rb924119]

How were the last model runs is the pattern still looking good?

Mugsy, if the long range crew brings this home and we get mostly snow next week, it would go a long way in helping cure CP with his lackasnowpackitis (symptoms caused by a continual lack of snow pack days the last two years).Bring it home, guys!!

Yupppp

[rb924119]

I’m waiting to hear about “the return of the Polar Vortex” in the media

[aiannone]

I’m waiting to hear about “the return of the Polar Vortex” in the media

LOL you know it will be prevalent

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Weather channel app for my area just went a little off the deep end 12 to 18 inches Saturday night and Sunday.

I'll stick with the 6 to 11 they've been forecasting all week And be happy if that even materializes.

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