Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[Irish]

Here... we... go...!!!

[billg315]

Can’t remember the last time I saw multiple snow threats in about a one week time span but next week may do it. This cold outbreak sinking into the conus the next few days should open the door to our best snow opportunities in quite sometime. Which isn’t to say that we cash in, but it’s a heck of a lot easier to get a snowstorm when temps are locked at or below freezing for several days.

[heehaw453]

I would be disingenuous if I said this 18Z EPS doesn't have me just bit excited about early next week.

Wow that’s impressive. Possible KU event in the making?

I would say moderate to possibly sig upside event early next week. For KUs I like to see a stout 50/50 to buckle the flow. Just a little trough though could help compress the southerly flow for colder air. This will come down as usual to s/w phasing interactions. Still need to time for models to understand which waves to focus on and I'd say a big part of that is what happens to the cutter tomorrow night/Friday which spins up a TPV lobe near James Bay.

[MattyICE]

I think 1/16 could totally work for a 4-8” especially with better ratios than the first snowstorm. But I think the real big dog potential is more towards the 20th as that Greenland block retrogrades a bit and colder air gets more established.

[heehaw453]

I think 1/16 could totally work for a 4-8” especially with better ratios than the first snowstorm. But I think the real big dog potential is more towards the 20th as that Greenland block retrogrades a bit and colder air gets more established.

Yes that period post 1/20 is more upside. The 50/50 is more established and as the block relaxes and that's when we've seen the biggest events in these parts. What happens is you give room for a storm to amplify under the decaying block and the 50/50 locks in the cold air. Impatient me though give me the bird in hand now.

[dsix85]

Honestly, I’m a bit surprised by the lack of chatter on the board. After tomorrow’s mess moves through, next week looks like a winter weenies happy place. No more antecedent air mass/thread the needle event for the coasties. This cold has staying power and we have the goods to track Tuesday and beyond. Let’s go!!

[sroc4]

Honestly, I’m a bit surprised by the lack of chatter on the board. After tomorrow’s mess moves through, next week looks like a winter weenies happy place. No more antecedent air mass/thread the needle event for the coasties. This cold has staying power and we have the goods to track Tuesday and beyond. Let’s go!!

The calm before the storm my friend. I think everyone knows what’s out there. I also think people want to pace themselves. Meaning once Fridays system is up out of the way the final kick will commence and by the weekend the discussion will ramp up slow and steady until it reaches a furious pace.

[dkodgis]

I am wary of transient cold periods. Until I am in a cold period and it stays that way, I am cautiously optimistic. I am sure if the rest of Jan to mid-April the cold temps ravage me and my heating bill,  i will complain. However if I want snow, and I do, I know I need the cold in place.

[Irish]

I am wary of transient cold periods. Until I am in a cold period and it stays that way, I am cautiously optimistic. I am sure if the rest of Jan to mid-April the cold temps ravage me and my heating bill,  i will complain. However if I want snow, and I do, I know I need the cold in place.

This is our new winter, transient cold periods.  We'll get a cold spell of several days and then a warm up to 50+ degrees.  Rinse, repeat.  Boy fo I miss the winters where we have real cold snaps and snow on the ground through May, especially piled high in parking lots and grass areas. 

In saying that, which I know is banter worthy, next week looks very, very promising!  Temps are crashing and I'm hoping the snow follows. Enough with this warm nose BS!

[heehaw453]

I think for folks especially on the coastal plain this is going to be important for colder solution. It doesn't look like much but this strom may amplify and that troughing will be critical in locking cold air in. The southerly flow needs disruption from the preceding ridge. Other than that this long wave pattern looks pretty good to me.

[heehaw453]

I am wary of transient cold periods. Until I am in a cold period and it stays that way, I am cautiously optimistic. I am sure if the rest of Jan to mid-April the cold temps ravage me and my heating bill,  i will complain. However if I want snow, and I do, I know I need the cold in place.

This is our new winter, transient cold periods.  We'll get a cold spell of several days and then a warm up to 50+ degrees.  Rinse, repeat.  Boy fo I miss the winters where we have real cold snaps and snow on the ground through May, especially piled high in parking lots and grass areas. 

In saying that, which I know is banter worthy, next week looks very, very promising!  Temps are crashing and I'm hoping the snow follows. Enough with this warm nose BS!

Got to go back 2014/15 for the last time we had one of those. Seems like a lifetime ago.

[Frank_Wx]

The GFS has now come around to the idea of actually showing a storm, and accumulating snow at that. This model is always last to the party in the medium horizon.

What I’m looking for is more intense amplification of the trough and phasing with the STJ. This will depend on the PNA ridge and its ability to stay poleward tilted versus flattening out. I have the SCI index at 10%, but feel inclined to increase it once I see this afternoons EURO.

[toople]

I heard the 12z Euro run is not good for storm 1 and 2.

[amugs]

I heard the 12z Euro run is not good for storm 1 and 2.

Flattens out the whole dam jet, this is actually comical lately. The models flipped.
Tomorrows system has a bearing on what happens next storm.

[heehaw453]

12Z Euro has a piece of n/s shortwave just obliterate the PNA ridge as it comes down the shoot such that the s/w in front cannot amplify. So yes that is a viable option too and consistent with what we've been saying that it will come down to s/w interactions. A strong ridge bridge between the EPO and AO domains would mitigate that risk.

We won't know much until after Saturday with this IMO.

[Frank_Wx]

I heard the 12z Euro run is not good for storm 1 and 2.

Flattens out the whole dam jet, this is actually comical lately. The models flipped.
Tomorrows system has a bearing on what happens next storm.

This graphic nicely shows why the EURO lost the storm. Top is GFS. Bottom is EURO. Look at the difference in the circled area. The GFS consolidates the upper energy and takes it east as it feels the effects of the ridge. The EURO digs the energy into the SW CONUS and holds it back.



Hard to say which is right over the other. However, euro sometime has a bias to hold back energy.

[phil155]

I like our chances next week, seriously as of right now I like our chances and I would say they are better than 50/50

[Irish]

I like our chances next week, seriously as of right now I like our chances and I would say they are better than 50/50

I know that this far out, it means nothing, but TWC like next week too.  Temps in the low 30s as highs and 4-8 inches of snow listed.  We'll see...

[phil155]

Plus I think some positivity can't hurt LOL

[sroc4]

I heard the 12z Euro run is not good for storm 1 and 2.

There are two things you can probably bank on for next week.  First The current strength and timing of northern and southern stream energy will change from what it is now.  This will likely sort out, as others have said, once the next rain storm blows through Friday into Sat, and interacts with the trop polar vortex near r5he Hudson bay.  The southern stream energy HAS to get out in front of the northern stream otherwise it ends up steering it out to see rather than phasing into the back side of it and raising heights out in front, and steering it up the coast.  Frank a few posts up shows this nicely between the GFS(storm) and Euro(no storm). Again this will likely get worked out over the weekend when Friday system is out of the way.  

Second thing you can count on is the southern stream energy is being under modeled in its strength.  Southern shortwaves have has almost always been under modeled in the medium term.  For the past 2 years it seems as we get in under 5-7days the southern stream energy trends stronger, which in this set up bodes well for a coastal snow storm.

[MattyICE]

12z Euro Op is a far SE outlier from its ensembles. The ensembles have trended a bit SE but the mean LP is largely the same. Also holding energy back is a known bias for the Euro. For now all of this is still in the range of typical back and forth for the next couple of days.

[frank 638]

[url=https://servimg.com/view/19403139/21][/ur
I like what I am seeing .of course it will change

[heehaw453]

I heard the 12z Euro run is not good for storm 1 and 2.

There are two things you can probably bank on for next week.  First The current strength and timing of northern and southern stream energy will change from what it is now.  This will likely sort out, as others have said, once the next rain storm blows through Friday into Sat, and interacts with the trop polar vortex near r5he Hudson bay.  The southern stream energy HAS to get out in front of the northern stream otherwise it ends up steering it out to see rather than phasing into the back side of it and raising heights out in front, and steering it up the coast.  Frank a few posts up shows this nicely between the GFS(storm) and Euro(no storm). Again this will likely get worked out over the weekend when Friday system is out of the way.  

Second thing you can count on is the southern stream energy is being under modeled in its strength.  Southern shortwaves have has almost always been under modeled in the medium term.  For the past 2 years it seems as we get in under 5-7days the southern stream energy trends stronger, which in this set up bodes well for a coastal snow storm.

It looked to me a piece of n/s energy came down the PNA shoot and squashed the ridge. That piece stayed separate, smothered the s/w in front of it and killed any chance of the S/S from interacting with the swinging trough. I think that's possible with a lot of n/s activity but not too likely IMO with a ridge bridge hooking up the AO/EPO domains. Any way long way to go with this one.

[skinsfan1177]

Weeklies look cold for February

[sroc4]

I heard the 12z Euro run is not good for storm 1 and 2.

There are two things you can probably bank on for next week.  First The current strength and timing of northern and southern stream energy will change from what it is now.  This will likely sort out, as others have said, once the next rain storm blows through Friday into Sat, and interacts with the trop polar vortex near r5he Hudson bay.  The southern stream energy HAS to get out in front of the northern stream otherwise it ends up steering it out to see rather than phasing into the back side of it and raising heights out in front, and steering it up the coast.  Frank a few posts up shows this nicely between the GFS(storm) and Euro(no storm). Again this will likely get worked out over the weekend when Friday system is out of the way.  

Second thing you can count on is the southern stream energy is being under modeled in its strength.  Southern shortwaves have has almost always been under modeled in the medium term.  For the past 2 years it seems as we get in under 5-7days the southern stream energy trends stronger, which in this set up bodes well for a coastal snow storm.

It looked to me a piece of n/s energy came down the PNA shoot and squashed the ridge. That piece stayed separate, smothered the s/w in front of it and killed any chance of the S/S from interacting with the swinging trough. I think that's possible with a lot of n/s activity but not too likely IMO with a ridge bridge hooking up the AO/EPO domains. Any way long way to go with this one.

Great point for sure.

[Frank_Wx]

No one wants to mention the Godzilla the 18z GFS spat out?

[phil155]

No one wants to mention the Godzilla the 18z GFS spat out?

What are the parameters for a Godzilla event

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