Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[amugs]

Keep this trend going!! 

[docstox12]

Looks like the rainy and mild pattern in effect since Nov.1 returns this week with two rainstorms on tap.Actually , a lot of the Forum had rain with the storm last night.
We need a lot colder air and a better storm track.

[Irish]

Looks like the rainy and mild pattern in effect since Nov.1 returns this week with two rainstorms on tap.Actually , a lot of the Forum had rain with the storm last night.
We need a lot colder air and a better storm track.

Yup, just saw that as well.  2 rain storms - Tuesday and then Friday into Saturday.  Then it gets cold.  We'll see if anything can happen during that period or if it'll be just dry and cold...

[heehaw453]

This is not a look of significant snow for the I95 or most folks in the immediate area for 1/13. The EPO and the NAM domain very good, but the PNA is anomalously negative and there is antecedent ridge on the EC with warmer air. Remember when something is too extreme it offsets the other good things. A neutral PNA or even slightly negative would have been just fine.


And I'm not saying there cannot be any frozen with this, but just not anything sig for the I95 and immediate area with that setup. So until that PNA relaxes I think snow chances wait.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Looks like the rainy and mild pattern in effect since Nov.1 returns this week with two rainstorms on tap.Actually , a lot of the Forum had rain with the storm last night.
We need a lot colder air and a better storm track.

Inside the bench mark is our track Doc, I realize it doesn't help the coasties but east of benchmark is best for them and that usually keeps us out of the heaviest stuff.

WTS the next two storms will suck for everyone forum wide.

[docstox12]

Looks like the rainy and mild pattern in effect since Nov.1 returns this week with two rainstorms on tap.Actually , a lot of the Forum had rain with the storm last night.
We need a lot colder air and a better storm track.

Inside the bench mark is our track Doc, I realize it doesn't help the coasties but east of benchmark is best for them and that usually keeps us out of the heaviest stuff.

WTS the next two storms will suck for everyone forum wide.

Right CP, Hudson Valley inside the BM special it was.
Hate to see our area after this deluge and warm up Tues and Weds.

[heehaw453]

So after we get through 2 more less than ideal storm tracks I have decent confidence as the PNA goes more towards neutral (about 1 week or so) and we keep an active sub tropical jet the I95/NYC/LI/Jersey shore time will come shortly after that.  This will push the cold air down deep and allow for storms under the resistance of the blocking. This setup can produce very nicely with a rich moisture source.

Let's get this look consistent for a few days and then tracking will be in full force IMO.

[heehaw453]

This is a surface analysis for an op map. It's for illustrative purposes ONLY and it's consistent with where I believe things could be headed.  This type of setup is not one where we get some snow and it melts away in a day or two. With this kind of setup it can have some staying power especially off the immediate coast. I'd say for the first time since end of January/February 2021 (had 20" snow depth) this has me really intrigued.

[rb924119]

We should enjoy these next two to three weeks, because I’m not sure how February is going to turn out, though I fear it won’t be too pretty. We might have to wait for another MJO-induced Strat-warm event to salvage March, because it looks to me like the MJO is gonna have some serious amplitude and staying power in unfavorable phases (4, 5, and 6). Where I’m uncertain, though, is how this is going to play with the central-based El Niño, which is a good ENSO situation to be in. What could end up happening, is you get what I’ll term as “home grown blocking”, where you get a highly amplified long wave pattern where a big ridge balloons over the eastern CONUS, but then is forced to cyclonically wave break in response to an amplifying storm coming out of the West. When that happens, yeah, you’ll get a cutter, but then with the ridge now draping across southern Canada, it could act like the late stages of a NAO block that comes back. So, following the cutter, you have all kinds of high pressure over Canada oozing cool air down, and with the tendency for the Pacific to dump troughs into the West when the MJO is in those unfavorable phases, it seeds the southern stream with a continuous supply of shortwaves that cut beneath the ridge. Granted, the air oozing southward from Canada wouldn’t be cold, but in peak climo and a suppressed storm track it could work. Then what would likely happen is that that “home grown block” would sync back up with a mid-latitude ridge that spikes east of the Rockies in response to a deepening shortwave in the West, and you could get a storm from energy that drops down the eastern flank of that ridge, amplifies, and then comes up with a better air source. After that, the pattern would progress, the ridge would come back to the East, and then it would rinse, wash, repeat until the MJO gets back in better phases and in sync with the auspicious ENSO support.

Hopefully you guys followed that lol as I said, it’s something that requires more thought, but that’s kind of where my head is at for the closing days of January and into a lot of February. We’ll see. If it does play out that way, though, I think we’d be in for one heck of a March and front half of April……and I mean 2018 style lol because then you’d have the MJO-induced Strat-warm constructively interfering with the ENSO state and MJO, plus the apparent tendency for true Atlantic domain blocking initiation and maintenance.

[jmanley32]

A friend of mine who is native american from Minnesota told me that as a trapper he can tell if it will be a wintry winter or not. He said we have had no staying power of cold, the traps would not sink in the ground and be held in place and they would lose out on tons of minx. He said it is unlikely to have any sig snow for the I-95 unless we see a streth of weeks of cold to solidify the ground. Natives as he stated tend to have very good intuiton to nature and the weather so i fully believe him (he got this one spot on with no metrorlogical knowledge other than his native intution), this year is skunked for the I-95, N/W cashes in on heavy precip but even there there will be no staying power for snow pack.

[Lnda23]

Banter

[nutleyblizzard]

We should enjoy these next two to three weeks, because I’m not sure how February is going to turn out, though I fear it won’t be too pretty. We might have to wait for another MJO-induced Strat-warm event to salvage March, because it looks to me like the MJO is gonna have some serious amplitude and staying power in unfavorable phases (4, 5, and 6). Where I’m uncertain, though, is how this is going to play with the central-based El Niño, which is a good ENSO situation to be in. What could end up happening, is you get what I’ll term as “home grown blocking”, where you get a highly amplified long wave pattern where a big ridge balloons over the eastern CONUS, but then is forced to cyclonically wave break in response to an amplifying storm coming out of the West. When that happens, yeah, you’ll get a cutter, but then with the ridge now draping across southern Canada, it could act like the late stages of a NAO block that comes back. So, following the cutter, you have all kinds of high pressure over Canada oozing cool air down, and with the tendency for the Pacific to dump troughs into the West when the MJO is in those unfavorable phases, it seeds the southern stream with a continuous supply of shortwaves that cut beneath the ridge. Granted, the air oozing southward from Canada wouldn’t be cold, but in peak climo and a suppressed storm track it could work. Then what would likely happen is that that “home grown block” would sync back up with a mid-latitude ridge that spikes east of the Rockies in response to a deepening shortwave in the West, and you could get a storm from energy that drops down the eastern flank of that ridge, amplifies, and then comes up with a better air source. After that, the pattern would progress, the ridge would come back to the East, and then it would rinse, wash, repeat until the MJO gets back in better phases and in sync with the auspicious ENSO support.

Hopefully you guys followed that lol as I said, it’s something that requires more thought, but that’s kind of where my head is at for the closing days of January and into a lot of February. We’ll see. If it does play out that way, though, I think we’d be in for one heck of a March and front half of April……and I mean 2018 style lol because then you’d have the MJO-induced Strat-warm constructively interfering with the ENSO state and MJO, plus the apparent tendency for true Atlantic domain blocking initiation and maintenance.

Enjoy the next 2-3 weeks? In the next 10 days we’re looking at two cutters. After that I don’t trust the models since they’ve been acting bipolar lately. Now your throwing hints that February might go in the crapper as well? It would no longer surprise me if Central Park gets shut out this winter.

[jmanley32]

Banter

Could be seen that way but is also long range, maybe it's not typical forecasting but it is valid. If the mods feel its banter feel free to move it, not really a need to point it out, on a side note your avatar is holarious.

[heehaw453]

We should enjoy these next two to three weeks, because I’m not sure how February is going to turn out, though I fear it won’t be too pretty. We might have to wait for another MJO-induced Strat-warm event to salvage March, because it looks to me like the MJO is gonna have some serious amplitude and staying power in unfavorable phases (4, 5, and 6). Where I’m uncertain, though, is how this is going to play with the central-based El Niño, which is a good ENSO situation to be in. What could end up happening, is you get what I’ll term as “home grown blocking”, where you get a highly amplified long wave pattern where a big ridge balloons over the eastern CONUS, but then is forced to cyclonically wave break in response to an amplifying storm coming out of the West. When that happens, yeah, you’ll get a cutter, but then with the ridge now draping across southern Canada, it could act like the late stages of a NAO block that comes back. So, following the cutter, you have all kinds of high pressure over Canada oozing cool air down, and with the tendency for the Pacific to dump troughs into the West when the MJO is in those unfavorable phases, it seeds the southern stream with a continuous supply of shortwaves that cut beneath the ridge. Granted, the air oozing southward from Canada wouldn’t be cold, but in peak climo and a suppressed storm track it could work. Then what would likely happen is that that “home grown block” would sync back up with a mid-latitude ridge that spikes east of the Rockies in response to a deepening shortwave in the West, and you could get a storm from energy that drops down the eastern flank of that ridge, amplifies, and then comes up with a better air source. After that, the pattern would progress, the ridge would come back to the East, and then it would rinse, wash, repeat until the MJO gets back in better phases and in sync with the auspicious ENSO support.

Hopefully you guys followed that lol as I said, it’s something that requires more thought, but that’s kind of where my head is at for the closing days of January and into a lot of February. We’ll see. If it does play out that way, though, I think we’d be in for one heck of a March and front half of April……and I mean 2018 style lol because then you’d have the MJO-induced Strat-warm constructively interfering with the ENSO state and MJO, plus the apparent tendency for true Atlantic domain blocking initiation and maintenance.

Good analysis. I agree with you in that with this Nino state I'm not sure anymore how much the MJO phases/amplitudes will affect the sensible weather. So now that to me adds complexity to the equation if they go into Maritime as predicted.

[heehaw453]

We should enjoy these next two to three weeks, because I’m not sure how February is going to turn out, though I fear it won’t be too pretty. We might have to wait for another MJO-induced Strat-warm event to salvage March, because it looks to me like the MJO is gonna have some serious amplitude and staying power in unfavorable phases (4, 5, and 6). Where I’m uncertain, though, is how this is going to play with the central-based El Niño, which is a good ENSO situation to be in. What could end up happening, is you get what I’ll term as “home grown blocking”, where you get a highly amplified long wave pattern where a big ridge balloons over the eastern CONUS, but then is forced to cyclonically wave break in response to an amplifying storm coming out of the West. When that happens, yeah, you’ll get a cutter, but then with the ridge now draping across southern Canada, it could act like the late stages of a NAO block that comes back. So, following the cutter, you have all kinds of high pressure over Canada oozing cool air down, and with the tendency for the Pacific to dump troughs into the West when the MJO is in those unfavorable phases, it seeds the southern stream with a continuous supply of shortwaves that cut beneath the ridge. Granted, the air oozing southward from Canada wouldn’t be cold, but in peak climo and a suppressed storm track it could work. Then what would likely happen is that that “home grown block” would sync back up with a mid-latitude ridge that spikes east of the Rockies in response to a deepening shortwave in the West, and you could get a storm from energy that drops down the eastern flank of that ridge, amplifies, and then comes up with a better air source. After that, the pattern would progress, the ridge would come back to the East, and then it would rinse, wash, repeat until the MJO gets back in better phases and in sync with the auspicious ENSO support.

Hopefully you guys followed that lol as I said, it’s something that requires more thought, but that’s kind of where my head is at for the closing days of January and into a lot of February. We’ll see. If it does play out that way, though, I think we’d be in for one heck of a March and front half of April……and I mean 2018 style lol because then you’d have the MJO-induced Strat-warm constructively interfering with the ENSO state and MJO, plus the apparent tendency for true Atlantic domain blocking initiation and maintenance.

Enjoy the next 2-3 weeks? In the next 10 days we’re looking at two cutters. After that I don’t trust the models since they’ve been acting bipolar lately. Now your throwing hints that February might go in the crapper as well? It would no longer surprise me if Central Park gets shut out this winter.

I doubt a shutout or even single digits, but certainly historical average of ~28" IMO is going to be difficult. It's going to take a big ticket item I think to get to it. Not based on hunches but past performance.

[Frank_Wx]

[rb924119]

Yeah, this is only the beginning, I think. But I think it’s going to be much slower to rotate through this time. I’d watch for trends of slowing the propagation down in subsequent runs. Not good.

[tomsriversnowstorm]

So Rb should we not expect any snow chances now for this winter. Nothing really looks great storm wise the next few weeks. Now yiur saying we have no chance after that. Is that correct?

quote="rb924119"]

Yeah, this is only the beginning, I think. But I think it’s going to be much slower to rotate through this time. I’d watch for trends of slowing the propagation down in subsequent runs. Not good.[/quote]

[heehaw453]

The ensembles are honking at this D8 window.

[amugs]

Devils advocate play here:
Okay talking to Jim Witt who taught and is friendds Dr. Alpert who rusn teh GSF said at out holiday wx club meeting that the GEFS have not been upgraded and suffer with the triopics, they know that and do not use it.
I really have not looked at the GEFS for MJO when learning this and use EURO and or BOMM.
Can the GEFS score one now and then sure as any model can here hoping to its not being that strong of a wave as the EURO is showing:



BOMM - has not updated yet from down under:




Could this happen and help us for February?? Absolutely but it must happen 1st.

[heehaw453]

MJO may kill February. Who knows? But I surely like seeing colder air on this side of the globe reload in the AO domain. As long as I see that then maybe some leaks down so long as the NAM state remains favorable. This to me is a far cry from what we had in December and very beginning of January.

[rb924119]

So Rb should we not expect any snow chances now for this winter. Nothing really looks great storm wise the next few weeks. Now yiur saying we have no chance after that. Is that correct?

quote="rb924119"]

Yeah, this is only the beginning, I think. But I think it’s going to be much slower to rotate through this time. I’d watch for trends of slowing the propagation down in subsequent runs. Not good.

[/quote]

No, the next couple/three weeks should deliver more opportunities. As we close out January (say the transition starts around the 25th, give or take), that’s when I think it will start becoming more hostile for snow chances. But again, I want to take a better look at this before writing anything off completely, because there are other factors than just the MJO, and depending on how they interact, it may have more bark than bite.

[amugs]

This is an exciting look for next Tuesdayish timeframe

N NAO, AO
N EPO and a PNA spike - ridge over the west coast and building east.

[dkodgis]

It looks like the rain tomorrow around my parts is not bringing the wind but gosh, down in Ocean County for example, very windy. Looks like everyone is getting the rain.

[Irish]

This is an exciting look for next Tuesdayish timeframe

N NAO, AO
N EPO and a PNA spike - ridge over the west coast and building east.

15-16th, correct?

[amugs]

This is an exciting look for next Tuesdayish timeframe

N NAO, AO
N EPO and a PNA spike - ridge over the west coast and building east.

15-16th, correct?

15th to 17th time frame

[heehaw453]

Potential is there on the 16th for something moderate to significant based on the long wave pattern. Expect a lot of different op solutions until Thursday night/Friday until models get a better handle of s/w interactions. Slight changes in that will make all the difference in the outcome.

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