01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible

weatherwatchermom wrote:LOL...I have been delirious with a high fever the last 2 days...am I hallucinating or are we really going to have a storm??

Sure looks like it.

My 2nd update will come tonight. Between 8-9pm.

I will begin talking a bit more specifics. Key EURO run this afternoon.

[quote="NjWeatherGuy"]

Quietace wrote:Looking at models, there is a really tight gradient between the LP and where the R/S line is. While you can see the 32F line fairly north, most are at 33 degrees with every other column cool enough for snow. Almost everyone is ripping except SE NJ

It'll be in NAM range soon and then we'll be able to see where these finer details are. Like the psu maps for those. Assuming the NAM can handle the setup...[/quote
The NAM HAHAHA dude and dude yes we go with the RGEM this will and always brings us the goods.

FN EPIC RUNS!

Juse got up(remember I am recouping from surgery no pop shots please!):and I am calm by the runs from the consistent BOMBS we r seeing. I say this no neg or ready to jump ship idmf we see a pull back or a hiccup models do this with these BEHEMOTHS yes that term so we be patience and persevere Carry on my NJ Strong Family.

]

amugs wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Wind gusts at height of storm

Wow. Can't remember the last time I've seen the yellow like that over Manhattan in a winter storm.

How about Sandy??

"Winter storm." ;-)

I'd really like to point out that we have a FULL WOLF MOON on Sat night; if this pans out, coastal flooding in prone areas will be major.

Cnj coast is doomed

Quietace wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

Quietace wrote:Looking at models, there is a really tight gradient between the LP and where the R/S line is. While you can see the 32F line fairly north, most are at 33 degrees with every other column cool enough for snow. Almost everyone is ripping except SE NJ

It'll be in NAM range soon and then we'll be able to see where these finer details are. Like the psu maps for those. Assuming the NAM can handle the setup...

No model will really be able to handle the dynamics of a setup like this, the gradient is going to be extremely tight. Though with this storm, you may be at 33-34 degrees with accumulating snow on all surfaces with the rates shown, especially with the stronger confluence pressing down coller air into the area as shown on the GFS.

When you have a storm bombing out like this one is forecast to do and a closed 500 MB low right near or south of us the sheer dynamics should cause temps to crash into the mid 20's no??????????????????????

SoulSingMG wrote:

amugs wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Wind gusts at height of storm

Wow. Can't remember the last time I've seen the yellow like that over Manhattan in a winter storm.

How about Sandy??

"Winter storm." ;-)

I'd really like to point out that we have a FULL WOLF MOON on Sat night; if this pans out, coastal flooding in prone areas will be major.

That's not good. We all love a good blizzard but none of us want to see flooding, extreme high winds, and coastal damage. Well maybe with the exception of Jman. JK

............and not to be too selfish, but with 2"+ qpf area wide at 10:1 minimum..........do the math!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

There will also be a full moon this weekend.

syosnow94 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

Quietace wrote:Looking at models, there is a really tight gradient between the LP and where the R/S line is. While you can see the 32F line fairly north, most are at 33 degrees with every other column cool enough for snow. Almost everyone is ripping except SE NJ

It'll be in NAM range soon and then we'll be able to see where these finer details are. Like the psu maps for those. Assuming the NAM can handle the setup...

No model will really be able to handle the dynamics of a setup like this, the gradient is going to be extremely tight. Though with this storm, you may be at 33-34 degrees with accumulating snow on all surfaces with the rates shown, especially with the stronger confluence pressing down coller air into the area as shown on the GFS.

When you have a storm bombing out like this one is forecast to do and a closed 500 MB low right near or south of us the sheer dynamics should cause temps to crash into the mid 20's no??????????????????????

Not with the mid and low level center so close to the coast. Water temps are also fairly warm still yet more nominal then earlier in the month. Probably will keep coastal sections on edge, yet with current placement only ACY area and immediate coastal sections look like they will have problems with the screaming East wind.

CMC has R/S line getting as north as between I-95 and I-78 but its not there for long.

Quietace wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

Quietace wrote:Looking at models, there is a really tight gradient between the LP and where the R/S line is. While you can see the 32F line fairly north, most are at 33 degrees with every other column cool enough for snow. Almost everyone is ripping except SE NJ

It'll be in NAM range soon and then we'll be able to see where these finer details are. Like the psu maps for those. Assuming the NAM can handle the setup...

No model will really be able to handle the dynamics of a setup like this, the gradient is going to be extremely tight. Though with this storm, you may be at 33-34 degrees with accumulating snow on all surfaces with the rates shown, especially with the stronger confluence pressing down coller air into the area as shown on the GFS.

When you have a storm bombing out like this one is forecast to do and a closed 500 MB low right near or south of us the sheer dynamics should cause temps to crash into the mid 20's no??????????????????????

Not with the mid and low level center so close to the coast. Water temps are also fairly warm still yet more nominal then earlier in the month. Probably will keep coastal sections on edge, yet with current placement only ACY area and immediate coastal sections look like they will have problems with the screaming East wind.  

I can see mixing as far north as, well, probably where the coastal plain transitions to piedmont with this setup and such warm anomalies off the coast, it may only mix for a short time in northern areas and more further south, there will be tight gradients from the mixing (seen on models) and NW cutoff.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:CMC has R/S line getting as north as between I-95 and I-78 but its not there for long.

One of my all time favorite METS, Mr. Lee Goldberg, often says, "sometimes you've gotta sniff the rain to get the heaviest snows."

SoulSingMG wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:CMC has R/S line getting as north as between I-95 and I-78 but its not there for long.

One of my  all time favorite METS, Mr. Lee Goldberg, often says, "sometimes you've gotta sniff the rain to get the heaviest snows."

Yep

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

Quietace wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

Quietace wrote:Looking at models, there is a really tight gradient between the LP and where the R/S line is. While you can see the 32F line fairly north, most are at 33 degrees with every other column cool enough for snow. Almost everyone is ripping except SE NJ

It'll be in NAM range soon and then we'll be able to see where these finer details are. Like the psu maps for those. Assuming the NAM can handle the setup...

No model will really be able to handle the dynamics of a setup like this, the gradient is going to be extremely tight. Though with this storm, you may be at 33-34 degrees with accumulating snow on all surfaces with the rates shown, especially with the stronger confluence pressing down coller air into the area as shown on the GFS.

When you have a storm bombing out like this one is forecast to do and a closed 500 MB low right near or south of us the sheer dynamics should cause temps to crash into the mid 20's no??????????????????????

Not with the mid and low level center so close to the coast. Water temps are also fairly warm still yet more nominal then earlier in the month. Probably will keep coastal sections on edge, yet with current placement only ACY area and immediate coastal sections look like they will have problems with the screaming East wind.  

I can see mixing as far north as, well, probably where the coastal plain transitions to piedmont with this setup and such warm anomalies off the coast, it may only mix for a short time in northern areas and more further south, there will be tight gradients from the mixing (seen on models) and NW cutoff.

I wouldn't say that. Not with such a dynamic system. Per the GFS, their is no warm nose at any level except in SNJ

Will take anything over another damn miss to the east... Man this is overdue if it verifies...

The immense dynamics of this beast will make/produce cold air and will cause temps to crash into the mid low 20's with that banana high sitting to the NW don't forget that.

Got it Zoo - I called my buddy who owns a front bucket loader already - we may need it!!!!

Quietace wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

Quietace wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

Quietace wrote:Looking at models, there is a really tight gradient between the LP and where the R/S line is. While you can see the 32F line fairly north, most are at 33 degrees with every other column cool enough for snow. Almost everyone is ripping except SE NJ

It'll be in NAM range soon and then we'll be able to see where these finer details are. Like the psu maps for those. Assuming the NAM can handle the setup...

No model will really be able to handle the dynamics of a setup like this, the gradient is going to be extremely tight. Though with this storm, you may be at 33-34 degrees with accumulating snow on all surfaces with the rates shown, especially with the stronger confluence pressing down coller air into the area as shown on the GFS.

When you have a storm bombing out like this one is forecast to do and a closed 500 MB low right near or south of us the sheer dynamics should cause temps to crash into the mid 20's no??????????????????????

Not with the mid and low level center so close to the coast. Water temps are also fairly warm still yet more nominal then earlier in the month. Probably will keep coastal sections on edge, yet with current placement only ACY area and immediate coastal sections look like they will have problems with the screaming East wind.  

I can see mixing as far north as, well, probably where the coastal plain transitions to piedmont with this setup and such warm anomalies off the coast, it may only mix for a short time in northern areas and more further south, there will be tight gradients from the mixing (seen on models) and NW cutoff.

I wouldn't say that. Not with such a dynamic system. Per the GFS, their is no warm nose at any level except in SNJ

Go to hour 126

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_12z/gfsloop.html#picture

Verbatim rain south of Monmouth county along the coast.

UKIE - WOWOWOWOWOW!!!!

rb924119 wrote:Like I said, whoever is lucky enough to get under one of those bands is going to jackpot lol

yeah I'm in that toy circle of two feet! Frank wind maps on wxbell not gr8 what is cmc showing for gusts in my area. I will need my ski goggles to go out in this with winds like the gfs wow for me looks like 50 to 55 plus or minus still nuts u won't see 10 feet in front u.

rb924119 wrote:Keep in mind this is THE 12z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN:

THAT IS SICCCKKKKKKKKKKKKK!!!!!!!!!!!! A FRICKIN MEAN HOLY SMOKES!!