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01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:27 pm

What do the wind gust look like for CMC?

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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:27 pm

amugs wrote:Dry slotted  there 111-114

That's because of the dual CCB bands

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Post by WeatherJeff1224 Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:27 pm

That's pretty sizable dry-slot

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:29 pm

CMC Dynamics are so great with a LP tucked into the BM we have done lights out in this set up. Don't freak it is still a great run

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:30 pm

Ace is right - subsidence on the CMC. Can't really say it's wrong. At the same token, there's MANY runs to go still. 

Goodnight. Will post EURO in the morning.

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Post by Abba701 Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:32 pm

What does the city get with the latest CMC?

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:32 pm

Beautiful track with cmc and evolution it will be just as great as gfs.

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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:32 pm

Total CMC snow:

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 8 Snowfall_total_accum_lwwratio_NECONUS_hr126

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:34 pm

CMC is stringing out the low and not handling the setup right if u ask me. Probably a bit too far NW and I dont see such a large zone of subsidence in a moisture packed storm like this. To sum it up, I think it looks off.
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Post by Abba701 Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:36 pm

That's not 2 feet

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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:37 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:CMC is stringing out the low and not handling the setup right if u ask me. Probably a bit too far NW and I dont see such a large zone of subsidence in a moisture packed storm like this. To sum it up, I think it looks off.

You could be right with it being too far northwest, but I think the precipitation field as modeled looks very accurate. When you have rapidly intensifying mid-level lows you can get dual CCB bands. I commented on this the other day I believe

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:38 pm

Man, DC and BM are really in the jackpot per latest GFS & CMC. This westward "trend" needs to relax.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:38 pm

I get 8 inches well that wasn't a gr8 way to end night. 39 hrs snow 8 inches is flurries. I think the run or thst map had errors.
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Post by Abba701 Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:40 pm

Well 8 inches would at least be enough to say that this wouldn't be the winter with the least snow.Ill take it

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Post by Abba701 Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:41 pm

Did the GFS also lower amounts on coast?

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Post by jimv45 Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:43 pm

That's a mid and upper Hudson Valley very good run Rb

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Post by Abba701 Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:48 pm

Lee Goldberg says mix along coast.I say 50-75 percent chance that happens

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Post by hyde345 Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:49 pm

jimv45 wrote:That's a mid and upper Hudson Valley very good run Rb

Jim, the cmc was a good run for us but it looked a little off. The GFS was good too though. The models are holding fast and it looks like we should do well in the HV.
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Post by Guest Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:50 pm

rb924119 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:FINALLY OVER lol

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 8 Snowfall_total_accum_lwwratio_NECONUS_hr138

RB that map makes no sense for the NY area and Jersey/Li.  over 2" of QPF. mostly or all snow is 24"+

This is why:

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 8 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_18

But don't worry about that stuff now. Besides, nobody on this board jackpots lol None of us live in Harrisburg haha

By the way if this verifies the snow will be tall enough to ride every attraction at Hershey Park without an adult!! white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag

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Post by Guest Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:54 pm

I'm with Jman. 30+ hours of snow on the Canadian run with just under 2" of QPF. for a total of 8" snow. Doesn't add up. Somethings off

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Post by jimv45 Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:58 pm

Yea hyde were do but will not get drawn in for a few more days but its been fun to look at,

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:02 am

There is a scroo zone, if you want to call 6-12 inches of snow a scroo zone, to whoever gets caught in between the two CCB bands. It has shown already on several runs. I wouldn't worry if you're under it now because I highly doubt that is a locked position yet, it has moved all over the place on every run, in many models. I would also be annoyed if I lived in Harrisburg Pa right now. I never want to be in the jackpot zone 5 days out. I really doubt the jackpot zone is set in stone.

Think with your head, not over it.
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:12 am

GEFS mean is really something else for the mid-Atlantic, DC. Unreal.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:16 am

SoulSingMG wrote:GEFS mean is really something else for the mid-Atlantic, DC. Unreal.

2 inches of snow sets the city of DC into panic mode, I've been there and seen it, not a pretty sight. If they ever got 30 they'd be jumping off government buildings, luckily the snow would cushion their falls.
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:22 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:GEFS mean is really something else for the mid-Atlantic, DC. Unreal.

2 inches of snow sets the city of DC into panic mode, I've been there and seen it, not a pretty sight. If they ever got 30 they'd be jumping off government buildings, luckily the snow would cushion their falls.

And we'll get 22" in the Park and the zookeeper will measure 2". tongue
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Post by chief7 Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:54 am

Paging Dr euro is Dr euro in the house

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Post by chief7 Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:07 am

For what I've been hearing everything's on par comparing it with the 12 Z at our 57

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