01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
What do the wind gust look like for CMC?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
amugs wrote:Dry slotted there 111-114
That's because of the dual CCB bands
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
That's pretty sizable dry-slot
WeatherJeff1224- Posts : 6
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
CMC Dynamics are so great with a LP tucked into the BM we have done lights out in this set up. Don't freak it is still a great run
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
Ace is right - subsidence on the CMC. Can't really say it's wrong. At the same token, there's MANY runs to go still.
Goodnight. Will post EURO in the morning.
Goodnight. Will post EURO in the morning.
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
What does the city get with the latest CMC?
Abba701- Posts : 328
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
Beautiful track with cmc and evolution it will be just as great as gfs.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
Total CMC snow:
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
CMC is stringing out the low and not handling the setup right if u ask me. Probably a bit too far NW and I dont see such a large zone of subsidence in a moisture packed storm like this. To sum it up, I think it looks off.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
That's not 2 feet
Abba701- Posts : 328
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
NjWeatherGuy wrote:CMC is stringing out the low and not handling the setup right if u ask me. Probably a bit too far NW and I dont see such a large zone of subsidence in a moisture packed storm like this. To sum it up, I think it looks off.
You could be right with it being too far northwest, but I think the precipitation field as modeled looks very accurate. When you have rapidly intensifying mid-level lows you can get dual CCB bands. I commented on this the other day I believe
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
Man, DC and BM are really in the jackpot per latest GFS & CMC. This westward "trend" needs to relax.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
I get 8 inches well that wasn't a gr8 way to end night. 39 hrs snow 8 inches is flurries. I think the run or thst map had errors.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
Well 8 inches would at least be enough to say that this wouldn't be the winter with the least snow.Ill take it
Abba701- Posts : 328
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
Did the GFS also lower amounts on coast?
Abba701- Posts : 328
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
That's a mid and upper Hudson Valley very good run Rb
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
Lee Goldberg says mix along coast.I say 50-75 percent chance that happens
Abba701- Posts : 328
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
jimv45 wrote:That's a mid and upper Hudson Valley very good run Rb
Jim, the cmc was a good run for us but it looked a little off. The GFS was good too though. The models are holding fast and it looks like we should do well in the HV.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
rb924119 wrote:syosnow94 wrote:rb924119 wrote:FINALLY OVER lol
RB that map makes no sense for the NY area and Jersey/Li. over 2" of QPF. mostly or all snow is 24"+
This is why:
But don't worry about that stuff now. Besides, nobody on this board jackpots lol None of us live in Harrisburg haha
By the way if this verifies the snow will be tall enough to ride every attraction at Hershey Park without an adult!!
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
I'm with Jman. 30+ hours of snow on the Canadian run with just under 2" of QPF. for a total of 8" snow. Doesn't add up. Somethings off
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
Yea hyde were do but will not get drawn in for a few more days but its been fun to look at,
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
There is a scroo zone, if you want to call 6-12 inches of snow a scroo zone, to whoever gets caught in between the two CCB bands. It has shown already on several runs. I wouldn't worry if you're under it now because I highly doubt that is a locked position yet, it has moved all over the place on every run, in many models. I would also be annoyed if I lived in Harrisburg Pa right now. I never want to be in the jackpot zone 5 days out. I really doubt the jackpot zone is set in stone.
Think with your head, not over it.
Think with your head, not over it.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
GEFS mean is really something else for the mid-Atlantic, DC. Unreal.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
SoulSingMG wrote:GEFS mean is really something else for the mid-Atlantic, DC. Unreal.
2 inches of snow sets the city of DC into panic mode, I've been there and seen it, not a pretty sight. If they ever got 30 they'd be jumping off government buildings, luckily the snow would cushion their falls.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:SoulSingMG wrote:GEFS mean is really something else for the mid-Atlantic, DC. Unreal.
2 inches of snow sets the city of DC into panic mode, I've been there and seen it, not a pretty sight. If they ever got 30 they'd be jumping off government buildings, luckily the snow would cushion their falls.
And we'll get 22" in the Park and the zookeeper will measure 2".
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
Paging Dr euro is Dr euro in the house
chief7- Posts : 132
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Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off
For what I've been hearing everything's on par comparing it with the 12 Z at our 57
chief7- Posts : 132
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