01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off

Paging Dr euro is Dr euro in the house

For what I've been hearing everything's on par comparing it with the 12 Z at our 57

At our 78 she's taking a neutral tilt

This isn't good

I see no one commented on this euro.I read it's not good

What I'm hearing is that the euro is further south than the GFS or the Canadian New York City has 1 inch QPF which is about a foot of snow without ratios I'm hearing the northwest suburbs get screwed with the euro waiting to hear what the ensembles say DC gets crushed

It shows 10 inches of snow for most of New York City north and west as you head southwest into central new Jersey amounts go higher and get to 18 inches in Philly. DC Baltimore 20 - 25 inches those are all at 10 to 1 ratios I'll post the map when I get home.

euro snow map...

ensembles...

Actually looks a little better than 12z. NYC Metro area and south is solidly in 12"+ on the mean, 15"+ over central Jersey. The mean is probably slightly further south, but overall not much change to my eyes. There's good clustering of the members until about 00z on Sunday when there's some divergence, one camp starts to pull away ENE, the other, larger, group is west of the mean (and a few stragglers headed SE).
NYC Metro area and south is solidly in 12"+ on the mean, 15"+ over central Jersey. that's insane

interesting...
College Park thinks the OP 0z Euro may have had initialization issues due to it using slightly older data than the GFS.



Quote


THE LOW ENTERING THE TN VALLEY ON DAY 3 IS PLAGUED BY CONCERNS WITH

THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER AND ULTIMATELY MORE SOUTHWARD
CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS COMPARED WITH MOST OTHER
SOLUTIONS...WHICH HAS HUGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE EAST COAST DAYS 4/5. TRACING THE LOW TO ITS PRESENT
LOCATION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOWS THE ECMWF TO BE A BIT SLOW
INITIALLY WHICH MAY HAVE TO DO WITH ITS OLDER INITIALIZATION AND
GREATER RELIANCE UPON PRIOR FIRST GUESS FIELDS VERSUS THE GFS
WHICH IS MORE RECENT AND OFTEN MORE SENSITIVE TO SUBTLE SHIFTS IN
OBSERVATIONS

what I take from tonights runs is that the storm is still there and very impressive. we will have fluctuations the next few runs so do not get overly concerned. by 12z tomorrow we should have a better handle on what is going to happen and even after that there will be some minor adjustments. right now the best way to approach this storm is to think 6+" this way we should not be to disappointed. obviously is some place gets 2 feet and we get 6" that would suck. I think some places are going to get screwed relatively speaking if say nyc gets 8" and dc 24". still a major winter storm is becoming more likely.

right now it seems the jackpot is somewhere south west of us. I believe that this system will come north as we have a very strong el-nino with a fast stj and pac jet with blocking eroding. just my opinion at this time. as cp and others have said who wants to be in the jackpot zone 4-5 days out although models have been pretty consistent with dc and points just west and north of there getting the brunt of this storm. it's still very possible it plays out like that but I have a hunch this storm will come north.

I don't like the runs from over night

jake732 wrote:I don't like the runs from over night

really?!!! this may be a storm for the ages from the mid Atlantic to s new England. can't get a better set up.

Idk just i don't see the hype like we saw from other runs

jake732 wrote:Idk just i don't see the hype like we saw from other runs

jake there is not much hype on the euro because people are looking at snow totals which show much less snow for nyc than say dc but it is foolish to take models verbatim at this time. what's important to take from the euro and other guidance is that there is going to be a major snow storm some where in the mid atlantic to new England. all options are still on the table from a miss to a change to rain to an all out blizzard. all we can know at this time is that there is a very high potential (60%) for getting 6+" of snow. to assume anything more is foolish right now. just take a step back and enjoy tracking this storm

On the other hand, the EURO closes off and cuts off H5 down in the southeast so the surface low never makes it to our Latitude. Huge differences! The timing also seems delayed. Friday evening start instead of day,

Frank, don't we trust the euro more usually?

The 6z GFS hints at what I said in my update. An H5 that closes off later and takes the entire storm and shifts it east a but. Verbatim, the highest snow totals are now in EPA and NJ on the 6z GFS while on prior runs it was more inland into PA.

jake732 wrote:Frank, don't we trust the euro more usually?

Yes, but it seems to be struggling a bit. The euro ensembles are further NW than the OP by a good margin. NWS there may have been initialization errors. I'm looking forward to the 12z run today.

Yes hopefully it'll correct it self

Frank_Wx wrote:The 6z GFS closes H5 very late in the run and the trough remains neutral. This actually is better for our area. The CCB is massive and destroys NYC/NJ/eastern PA/DC

We were having such great model consistency, and now the GFS and EURO have different times on when to close up the low. We all pretty much knew that ultimately there would be disagreements between the models, although I'm hearing that the Euro might have had initializing errors. Will have to wait to see at 12z if the Euro just had a bad run or if it may be on to something. However the 6z GFS that just came out is very encouraging!

Yes the 6z is extremely encouraging.

I noticed the 6z GFS shafts CT and the HV, weird