01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Amount of suppressed members increased, 12z GEFS...

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=276535

oy that does not look good frank please tell me this is not headed in a bad direction.

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:The GEFS members are leaning heavily west. Some extreme south outliers skew the mean.

This translates to more snow and wind?

Yes for NYC on north and west, but mixing issues could be a problem along immediate coast although a strengthening dynamic low could help to damper that problem.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:The GEFS members are leaning heavily west. Some extreme south outliers skew the mean.

This translates to more snow and wind?

Yes for NYC on north and west, but mixing issues could be a problem along immediate coast although a strengthening dynamic low could help to damper that problem.

I was watching 7, right now they have some mixing for south jersey and eastern end L.I really south and eastern though

Got buried, again 12z GEFS snowfall members, a little concerning imo.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=276535

More suppressed solns than yesterdays runs.

Already have me on alert with the fdny major snow storm this weekend double shifts

Chill here peeps on the GEFS. You are not going to have every member right now show the same thing. If you had that then what would we need them for IMO. Tucked in low still good.

Fim9

From Sroc post if you did not see it

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 22 2016 - 12Z TUE JAN 26 2016

HIGHLIGHTS...

LETS CUT TO THE CHASE. THE MAIN EVENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY/DAYS 3 TO 5. THERE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE MODEL ENSEMBLES.
COMPARING THE OPERATIONAL RUNS TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DOES INDICATE
SOME DIFFERENCES THAT ARE SMALL IN THE LARGE SCALE BUT CRUCIAL TO
THE FORECAST. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MAJOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS
SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN
THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES...BECOMES MORE VERTICAL AND THEN CONTINUES
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THAT IN
MIND...THE STORM WILL LIKELY SLOW IN ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT AS IT
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OR ANOTHER TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY DEVELOP FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS BOTH SCENARIOS. IN EITHER
EVEN...THE OVERALL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS IMPORTANT TO AFFECT THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ANY ONE AREA. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT TREND
TO FOLLOW AS THE MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS START COMING IN.

IN ADDITION...ANY TRENDS EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH WILL IMPACT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AS
WELL AS THE ISSUES OF MIXING/CHANGEOVER ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE SYSTEM. THERE HAVE BEEN SUBTLE NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS WITH THIS
FORECAST BUT WILL HAVE TO BE ASSESSED WHEN THE MORNING MODELS
ARRIVE. THERE HAVEN'T BEEN LARGE CHANGES WITH THE OVERNIGHT CYCLE.

IN GENERAL...THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS. IN PARTICULAR THE 06Z
GFS TRENDED FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS RESULTING IN LOWER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS DUE TO LOWER SNOWFALL DURATION. THE 00Z UKMET IS SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS BUT THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS
MUCH MORE PROGESSIVE THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES. AS A RESULT...LATER IN THE FORECAST...THE NAEFS MEAN
IS FASTER THAN THE GFS MEAN DUE TO THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
THE HEAVIEST SNOW BETWEEN THE ISSUES WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE AND
THE SOUTHERN MIX/CHANGEOVER IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED TO RUN FROM
NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS
IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE
JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY
2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY
TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR
SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK.

IN THE WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE ALONG THE COAST DAY 3 INTO
DAY 4...WITH THE NEXT MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXPECTED.

CONFIDENCE...

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE BUT THAT
ALSO SUGGEST THAT SMALL CHANGES CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
IMPACT. THERE IS STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS FROM THE EVENT AND MANY MODEL
SOLUTIONS TO COME. THERE HAS BEEN EXCELLENT CONTINUITY RELATIVE
TO AVERAGE AND PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE
FORECASTS PRIOR TO 5-6 FEBRUARY 2003...WHICH WAS FORECAST AS MUCH
AS 8 DAYS IN ADVANCE. OTHER STORMS HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS
PREDICTABLE. THIS MAY BE ONE CASE WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
PREDICTABILITY BUT WE SHALL SEE.

Here she comes boys and girls!!

jmanley32 wrote:not even close to 3 inches qpf where did u see this syo? We see about 18-20 nyc area.

I added up all the averages for each 3 hour slide of the CMC start of the run to end of it.

Euro time?

Running now - some changes we'll see how it goes out hr 81

Further south at 81

Hr 96 closed low over SC - jesus

amugs wrote:Hr 96 closed low over SC - jesus

UH OH!!

Terrible run so far out to 102 to much confluence to the north -not snowing here at all

syosnow94 wrote:

amugs wrote:Hr 96 closed low over SC - jesus

UH OH!!

happening again!!!!!

yikes this is nuts

Its just one run!!  But yes it could be happening again!!

say it aint so JOE say it aint so skunked!!