Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off

by **jake732** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:18 am

Yes the 6z is extremely encouraging.

by **snow247** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:33 am

I noticed the 6z GFS shafts CT and the HV, weird

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:44 am

That map is without ratios. The orange Rockland area is 10-15 inches in that run with ratios more likely 15-22. I'll sign up for that scrooing right now.

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:45 am

jake732 wrote:Yes the 6z is extremely encouraging.

Jake for us we will take euro,6z, late phase all this to cut down on mixing issues of they even occur

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:53 am

Waiting on the 6z GFS ensembles suite. If they show they are N/W of the OP, that would be a very good sign. I would then throw away the 0z Euro at that point.

by **oldtimer** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:54 am

Frank Whats it looking like on LI ?

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:58 am

Honestly I wouldn't discount anything yet

by Guest Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:47 am

We want a later closing off and more east track. (just not too much so the HV people cash in too) This is not a bad Euro run. Much colder. A 50/50 blend between Euro and GFS would be perfect.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:54 am

Wow I am too like Ryan thinking the jackpot is going to end up over the area look how much it moved toward us on o6z. The nws knows their stuff I'm guessing they right that euro had a issue last night.

by **SNOW MAN** Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:56 am

syosnow94 wrote:We want a later closing off and more east track. (just not too much so the HV people cash in too) This is not a bad Euro run. Much colder. A 50/50 blend between Euro and GFS would be perfect.

Syo, Don't leave out the peeps in EPA. Very Happy

by **Radz** Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:00 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:That map is without ratios. The orange Rockland area is 10-15 inches in that run with ratios more likely 15-22. I'll sign up for that scrooing right now.

This. We are going to see our first accumulating snowfall! It seems that the storm MAY stay S&E of the area especially if you are leaning toward the Euro solution like DT and Joe Cioffi explain in their write-ups, BUT this is going to be an AMAZING storm. Nothing etched in stone and any deviations in track will yield huge differences in conditions. We all have to sit back and realize that there could be sharp cut offs, fringe snows, and yes jackpot snow accumulations, and we don't yet know where the final track will be. Maybe this should be in banter, but you get the idea

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:00 am

The 06z gfs has a sharp cutoff at ct boarder what is cause of this very close for me to have the 15 plus shown or 6 to 12. Not gping to stress over snow maps still gping to b changes. But imo for the better.

by **docstox12** Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:08 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:That map is without ratios. The orange Rockland area is 10-15 inches in that run with ratios more likely 15-22. I'll sign up for that scrooing right now.

These overnight runs CP have me thinking more like 6 to 12 for us while S and E YET AGAIN gets more,LOL.Of course, it is still very early here and a jog this way or that could turn things our way.I''ll be watching Lee two nights in a row and I trust his judgement.

by **Radz** Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:12 am

How did the Euro Para run compare? Anyone know?

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:16 am

I'm hearing EURO PARALLEL was a huge hit for our area, brought system further north than than the Op

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:17 am

EPAWA: "Good morning... aside from the European model OP run with its convective feedback issues last night, we are still on course. Godzilla today?"

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:19 am

Radz wrote:How did the Euro Para run compare? Anyone know?

I heard someone said at American wx board that it was a big hit for the NYC metro area. Similar to the GFS. Can't confirm that though without maps.

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:19 am

Any word on the 6z GFS ensembles???

by **Radz** Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:22 am

SoulSingMG wrote:I'm hearing EURO PARALLEL was a huge hit for our area, brought system further north than than the Op

Good to hear! Was wondering if it would mirror the reg OP run

by **Radz** Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:24 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Radz wrote:How did the Euro Para run compare? Anyone know?
I heard someone said at American wx board that it was a big hit for the NYC metro area. Similar to the GFS. Can't confirm that though without maps.

Seems those maps are hard to come by

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:24 am

Radz wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:I'm hearing EURO PARALLEL was a huge hit for our area, brought system further north than than the Op

Good to hear! Was wondering if it would mirror the reg OP run

And here's the crazy part; it was OTS yesterday. Lol. Still a lot TBD with this event. But its top analog
is the B_____ of 96.

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:33 am

So as stated over the last couple of days the trends we see yest, today and tonight need to be digested and taken with a grain of salt. I am concerned by a few things. Yes people think the Euro has convective feedback issue, and yes I would like to believe that, but I am concerned by the fact that both the Euro(for several runs now), and the CMC are showing similar things. And that is the idea that by the time the main LP makes it to us the precip shield seems to fall apart or better stated spread out away from the center of the main low and we get more of an elongated LP with a second lobe popping and these crazy precip shields. For now see my write up from yesterday morning: (about halfway down the page) https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t632p125-01-22-16-01-23-16-update-1-historic-storm-possible This occlusion of the LP is a normal process in such a set up, but typically signals the beginning of the end to the system.

What I am worried about with what the euro and CMC are showing are an ULL that closes off too soon, and the normal maturation 500mb trough and associated LP associated with the 500mb short wave embedded within the 500mb trough, is at the normal tail end of its life cycle by the time it gets to us because of how and when the 500mb features evolve. I will have more on this after the 12z runs as I want to see if this is simply the normal waffling by models at this time frame, or if this could be real.

by **jimv45** Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:43 am

Doc I thing we get are about to get screwed again don't mean to be negative but just get ready don't tell cp

by Dave1978 Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:51 am

morning everyone , being I don't know how to read the maps above but reading all your comments makes me excited, so with this storm are we going to have strong winds? I am all up for huge snow storm but not up for losing power and pipes freezing.

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:52 am

Bernie Rayno's latest: http://bit.ly/1Zym292

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:53 am

People are worried about the Euro; and I get that. I really do. BUT DID ANYBODY SEE THE CONTROL????

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 10 Eps_snow_c_ma_29

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 10 Eps_snow_c_ma_29

by **RJB8525** Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:55 am

Up to 60mph in some spots winds will be a big big problem

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