Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:21 pm

The euro keeps closing H5 over TN then occludes it. It's either 100% or very lost since it has no support.

by **amugs** Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:22 pm

We still barely -- BARELY -- get clipped by the CCB at 114-117.

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:23 pm

Yikes. Why does this always happen with modes?! We had SUCH agreement. I cannot be on board with this storm unless the Euro is. She's right too many times lol

by **amugs** Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:23 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:24 pm

What's curious is the EPS were NW of the OP last night. I wonder what they show today. And remember...EURO was wrong with Juno. It's not ALWAYS right.

by **jimv45** Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:24 pm

Yikes is right and frank it doesn't have support is true but this could be the start of something bad!

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:25 pm

I know the EURO has a good track record and all, but I'm not buying this solution one bit. Absolutely no support from the other models which are all showing 2 inches precip. Toss it!

by **hyde345** Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:26 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:What's curious is the EPS were NW of the OP last night. I wonder what they show today. And remember...EURO was wrong with Juno. It's not ALWAYS right.

It will be right this time because we get screwed especially in HV. Awful run.

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:26 pm

But I'm hearing the UKMET is similar to EURO? Sorry, at airport and can't confirm...

by **billg315** Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:27 pm

Just one model run no need to panic. But this is one scenario I mentioned in Banter this morning so I'm not surprised it is in the mix. 4 days out a south shift isn't impossible. Remember the Feb 5-6, 2010 storm that buried DC, Balt and Philly but only dropped 2 or 3 inches in most of central/north Jersey. Always a possibility.

by **amugs** Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:28 pm

Ugglu Uggly run from Euro here. Could very well be losing it in the med range and then brings it back tomorrow - the emotional roller coaster of the winter storms.
Closed things off over SC, tried to recover but damage was done.
Onto tonight's runs and tomorrow's.

by **hyde345** Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:29 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:I know the EURO has a good track record and all, but I'm not buying this solution one bit. Absolutely no support from the other models which are all showing 2 inches precip. Toss it!

You can't toss it. Maybe it's picking up on something that the other models aren't yet. I hope it's wrong but I'm not going to disregard it. This is not good.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:31 pm

Wow - EURO and GFS models are in agreement. H5 closes off over TN 18z Friday. Where they differ is the EURO occludes the H5 low once it closes off, while the GFS continues taking it east-northeast. On the EURO, it almost looks as if the western ridge is collapsing on top of the mean vort, while the GFS flattens the ridge and the vort rides the flow. I can't sit here and say which one is right, but doesn't the EURO stalling the H5 low over TN to then track it east-southeast makes less sense than what the GFS does?

by **jimv45** Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:32 pm

Hyde I was happy when i saw the GFS for everybody now this!!! the winter of 2015 2016 is just so frustrating!!!!! got to remain positive!!

by Abba701 Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:32 pm

What would the city get if it verified? Nothing ?

by chief7 Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:34 pm

What time does the Euro para come out

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:35 pm

Abba701 wrote:What would the city get if it verified? Nothing ?

3-6"

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:35 pm

chief7 wrote:What time does the Euro para come out

No one knows. It comes out on its own.

by **jimv45** Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:36 pm

not much anywhere like it looked before but its still got time!

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:36 pm

EURO has agreement from some GFS and CMC ensemble members. *bleep* this is not what I wanted to see. Turning into a redux of all the failed storms of the past 10 years.... everytime someone throws around the word "historic" 4-5 days out it never ends well. This trend will continue and this storm will NOT be historic... knew it was too good to be true.

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:37 pm

You def cannot toss the Euro. The Euro is not always right. It has little to no support, but it is the Euro, and has been known to sniff out the final soln well before others. Remember Hurricane Joaquin. It had ZERO support for its idea of staying OTS, but ultimately was dead on balls accurate. This is why you wait until energy is fully sampled before jumping on any one bandwagon. There is no need to panic just yet, but I wont lie I am a little nervous. If it was the GFS or CMC I would be less nervous. Energy is fully sampled with tonights 00z runs so by the morning we will know for sure which direction this will be headed.

by **Grselig** Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:37 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:EURO has agreement from some GFS and CMC ensemble members. *bleep* this is not what I wanted to see. Turning into a redux of all the failed storms of the past 10 years.... everytime someone throws around the word "historic" 4-5 days out it never ends well. This trend will continue and this storm will NOT be historic... knew it was too good to be true.

not this winter. Its predictably heartbreaking

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:38 pm

Grselig wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:EURO has agreement from some GFS and CMC ensemble members. *bleep* this is not what I wanted to see. Turning into a redux of all the failed storms of the past 10 years.... everytime someone throws around the word "historic" 4-5 days out it never ends well. This trend will continue and this storm will NOT be historic... knew it was too good to be true.

not this winter. Its predictably heartbreaking

Ugh.... 2001 anyone

by **jake732** Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:38 pm

bernie rayno does NOT think the euro is really correct. frank, if the euro verifies what do we see on jersey coast?

by **hyde345** Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:39 pm

I wonder what the Euro snow map or I say lack of snow map looks like.

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