01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off

People are worried about the Euro; and I get that. I really do. BUT DID ANYBODY SEE THE CONTROL????

Up to 60mph in some spots winds will be a big big problem

rb924119 wrote:People are worried about the Euro; and I get that. I really do. BUT DID ANYBODY SEE THE CONTROL????

Is the control the same as the Para? Cuz the Para was beautiful.

SoulSingMG wrote:Is the control the same as the Para? Cuz the Para was beautiful.

No, it's different. It's initialized on it's own, but still has the same physics core as the Euro Op.

rb924119 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Is the control the same as the Para? Cuz the Para was beautiful.

No, it's different. It's initialized on it's own, but still has the same physics core as the Euro Op.

Gotcha. Thanks. So both the Control + Para were big hits for our area; Op was "fuzzy"

rb924119 wrote:People are worried about the Euro; and I get that. I really do. BUT DID ANYBODY SEE THE CONTROL????

Wowzas as Cnj to the coast smashed

There definitely was a southeast wobble from 00z to 06z runs last night, but is it a trend or just model noise? We had this yesterday too and then they all came back north with the 12z and 18z runs, so it's definitely possible that it is just noise. That said, the south and east trend has been something that we've been worried about on here based on the pattern, but THE ONLY THING WE CAN DO RIGHT NOW IS SIT TIGHT AND WATCH HOW EVERYTHING UNFOLDS. The energy is STILL not on shore yet, so that could change the game entirely for better or worse. Keep calm and carry on my friends.

rb924119 wrote:There definitely was a southeast wobble from 00z to 06z runs last night, but is it a trend or just model noise? We had this yesterday too and then they all came back north with the 12z and 18z runs, so it's definitely possible that it is just noise. That said, the south and east trend has been something that we've been worried about on here based on the pattern, but THE ONLY THING WE CAN DO RIGHT NOW IS SIT TIGHT AND WATCH HOW EVERYTHING UNFOLDS. The energy is STILL not on shore yet, so that could change the game entirely for better or worse. Keep calm and carry on my friends.

Just a note, the energy is about to come onshore. Should be fully sampled by 00z initialization tonight.

Rb excellent words of advice. Remember peeps, models get screwy with such dynamic systems in the med range which is where we r at. Looking at the last storm it was a scrapper that was ots then within 36 hours jumped 200 miles nw. I have seen this all to often. The concern is the se trend sure, it is for us in these set ups with every system. From another meet he expand how models always cut off the LP quicker in the med range only to close them off later as we get closer to ground zero. Nemo, Juno are fresh in my mind examples.
Still good runs and we sit patiently and of course anxiously till the 12z suite and we go from there.
What a hobby we all chose!?

SoulSingMG wrote:Bernie Rayno's latest: http://bit.ly/1Zym292

Great video. He does not seem to share my concern and lays out the pieces nicely.

sroc4 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Bernie Rayno's latest: http://bit.ly/1Zym292

Great video. He does not seem to share my concern and lays out the pieces nicely.

Agreed. Still believes this is an NYC, Philly, DC special with even very solid snows getting into SNE/BOS.

rb924119 wrote:People are worried about the Euro; and I get that. I really do. BUT DID ANYBODY SEE THE CONTROL????

Now I see it because you posted it, and I think I just had a sexual/weather moment!!!

this from poster from another board....
For some perspective, with NYC, along with DCA, PHL, and BOS in the hunt for 10" or more of snow, it should be noted that the only January storm since 1950 that produced 10" or more in all four cities is the January 1996 blizzard.

Frank_Wx wrote:Maybe I am the minority but when I analyze H5 I find the confluence to be the least of our worries. In my opinion, if the storm misses S&E it is because of how it phased and where H5 decided to close off. If you look at the 00z EURO and 06z GFS valid 12z Friday, both show the same confluence over northern New England but each model has a different solution. The EURO closed and cut-off H5 over Tennessee which is VERY different from the GFS which keeps the mid-level trough open longer and closes H5 over the Mid-Atlantic. It is all about how the energy within the trough is handled. The ridge and confluence are there on all guidance.

Great point Frank. And as Ryan pointed out and many of us have been stating for the last few days, energy comes ashore today and tonight so 12z should start the final push, but 00z tonight we should have some great sampling of energy.

I'm going all in nyc 16" and at least a brief period of 45 mph wind this is my final call mr frank. And where is sroc I love the work y'all do jmanily is becoming good to

With the winds concerned, Jman you'll like this.

I haven't seen it yet but TWC updated to "Snow and wind" for Saturday lol up to this point it was just snow. they are all in for winds all across the broad horizon

it looks like wpc is going with a more n/w track. also I think the euro may be digging the s/w trough to far south as It typically does. this winter so far nothing has dug as far south as models have shown. I think we see a n/w adjustment and with that maybe precip type issues for some.