Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:33 am

Hour 15 no change at all compared against 06z run.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:34 am

Here is the 6z GFS PARA... beautiful storm

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 13 Gfs_namer_102_850_temp_mslp_precip

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:35 am

The 12z gfs has the Pacific energy entering the US around 2pm today. 00z runs tonight should be fully sampled.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:39 am

Through hour 33 I don't see much change from 06z.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:45 am

Through 48 nothing majorly different. Maybe heights ahead of trough a little less amplified. Semantics.

by **RJB8525** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:46 am

Awesome. On my phone watching you update the models

Frank, you go to Mt. Olive often? I know you work at the m&m factory

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:46 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Through hour 33 I don't see much change from 06z.

I'd better see more than 8 inches of snow that's what 06z GFS showed lol, not worried this thing is going to produce at least a Godzilla, but waiting on ur storm mode frank, probably wont see it for a day or two.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:46 am

Through 48 the trough looks like it may slightly sharper than 06z

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:47 am

Hour 57 trough is beginning to tighten up as energy consolidates. Northern s/w over Plains looks stronger than 06z so that couple strengthen the entire trough.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:48 am

Again at 60

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:49 am

RJB8525 wrote:Awesome. On my phone watching you update the models

Frank, you go to Mt. Olive often? I know you work at the m&m factory

No, the Mt. Olive people come to HKT if we have to meet.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:50 am

Hour 66 the trough is stronger and sharper. May close off H5 sooner than 06z.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:50 am

Trough going neutral faster than 06z. Good sign

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:51 am

Hour 69 the confluence over SE CA is much stronger and further south than 06z. This may force H5 to cutoff too quickly

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:52 am

Definitely neutral, maybe slightly negative at 72, which is quicker than 06z. Still open.....

by **amugs** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:52 am

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 13m13 minutes ago Pennsylvania, USA

NAM looks reasonable to me as its in good agreement with Euro parallel and control.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:52 am

Hour 72 trough is still open - going neutral quicker than 06z. The confluence is definitely stronger this run.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:53 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Hour 69 the confluence over SE CA is much stronger and further south than 06z. This may force H5 to cutoff too quickly

you think it looks stronger? Hmm

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:53 am

Ignore this lol

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:54 am

Hour 78 H5 closed Kentucky. Trough is not fully neutral yet. This should be a good run.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:54 am

Think we might have a big run incoming folks....hold onto your bootstraps and buckle in!!!

by chief7 Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:54 am

Hell yeah keep that sh*t open

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:55 am

Hour 84 H5 remains closed. Trough is sharper thanks to enhanced energy. Should be a great run.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:56 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Hour 84 H5 remains closed. Trough is sharper thanks to enhanced energy. Should be a great run.

Agree. It should only strengthen from here

by **amugs** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:57 am

bring er on home franky!!! sitting this one on my phone watching yuo kid!

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:57 am

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:58 am

Wow - stronger storm as expected

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 13 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f93

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